{"schema_version": 1, "id": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 398, "label": "Prescott, AZ MSA", "slug": "prescott-az-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:58.052645+00:00", "headline": "Prescott unemployment rises as labor force quietly shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Prescott MSA unemployment hit a preliminary 5.8% in August against Arizona's 4.9% and the national 4.1%, even as warehouse pay jumped to a $41,600 metro median and registered nurse pay climbed to $105,562.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Prescott MSA unemployment rate", "value": "5.8%", "context": "vs 4.9% Arizona, 4.1% national (Aug 2026, preliminary)"}, {"label": "Yavapai County labor force participation", "value": "~12 pts below AZ avg", "context": "AZ participation itself down 2.2 pts year-over-year"}, {"label": "Arizona statewide unemployment rate", "value": "4.9%", "context": "Third straight month at post-pandemic high"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages now lagging inflation nationally"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rising unemployment masks a participation problem, not slack.", "body": "Prescott's 5.8% unemployment rate sits nearly a full point above Arizona's statewide figure, but Yavapai County participation already trails the state average by roughly 12 points. That combination is consistent with workers exiting the labor force rather than idle capacity waiting to be absorbed, a distinction that changes what the unemployment rate actually signals about local economic slack."}, {"headline": "Logistics pay spike bucks the metro's cooling narrative.", "body": "Warehouse and fulfillment advertised pay rose to a metro median of $41,600, nearly 10% above the $38,000 national figure and tagged as a significant increase. That divergence suggests localized demand in goods-movement roles even as headline joblessness rises, consistent with regional distribution activity rather than a broad-based hiring resurgence."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wage strength tracks the sector's job gains statewide.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly to a metro median of $105,562, mirroring Arizona's year-over-year health care job growth of 13,600 positions. Persistent wage momentum here is consistent with continued demand for care capacity even as other white-collar categories, like accounting, show significant local pay declines."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has not clearly reached Prescott yet.", "body": "National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, a red flag for consumer purchasing power broadly, but metro-level advertised pay data shows mixed, sector-specific movement rather than uniform erosion. Commerce leaders should treat national wage-inflation divergence as a leading indicator to monitor locally rather than an already-confirmed Prescott trend."}], "local_conditions": "Prescott MSA unemployment climbed to a preliminary 5.8% in August, well above both the state's 4.9% and the national 4.1%, as Yavapai County labor force participation sits roughly 12 points below the Arizona average, signaling workforce exit rather than renewed hiring competition. Warehouse/fulfillment pay rose sharply (metro median $41,600 versus $38,000 nationally) alongside gains in registered nursing and operations management, suggesting pockets of demand persist even as the broader metro labor market cools.", "implications": "Divergence between a softening headline unemployment rate and sharp wage gains in logistics, healthcare, and operations roles suggests Prescott's economy is not uniformly cooling \u2014 capital-intensive and skilled-service sectors appear to be absorbing labor even as overall participation declines. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment should treat the headline unemployment number cautiously, since it may reflect discouraged workers leaving the labor force rather than slack capacity available to new employers; current conditions suggest cross-checking sector-specific advertised pay trends before drawing conclusions about overall business climate from the unemployment rate alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "September BLS data for the Prescott MSA has not yet been released; watch for confirmation of whether the 5.8% August unemployment reading holds or reverses when official figures post in October."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Arizona's statewide labor force participation has declined for seven consecutive months; a continuation of that pattern at the Yavapai County level would reinforce a workforce-exit story over a demand-weakness story, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders read local consumer capacity."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN Act filings remain below 2025 levels but major employers like Amazon and Oracle continue to appear in filings; any announcement involving Prescott-area distribution or logistics operations would be the first local test of whether that national layoff activity reaches this metro."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Arizona's newly certified Workforce Pell Grant training programs in healthcare and transportation could begin feeding credentialed workers into the Prescott labor pool over the next two quarters, a supply-side development worth tracking against the metro's strong healthcare wage trend."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27724.0, "metro_p50": 32570.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28828.5, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33842.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34191.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58495.0, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32314.0, "metro_p50": 33295.0, "metro_p75": 34585.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 42858.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 73840.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33172.0, "metro_p50": 37280.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33551.0, "metro_p50": 38063.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31197.5, "metro_p50": 33134.4, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35697.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 40739.8, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60104.0, "metro_p50": 69619.0, "metro_p75": 75462.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88091.0, "metro_p50": 105561.8, "metro_p75": 114400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 108890.0, "metro_p50": 148720.0, "metro_p75": 162342.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136282.6, "metro_p75": 152647.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 66580.0, "metro_p75": 72000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75121.5, "metro_p50": 95894.0, "metro_p75": 101700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101240.5, "metro_p50": 118292.0, "metro_p75": 118292.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46677.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70470.0, "metro_p50": 94006.6, "metro_p75": 111033.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37799.0, "metro_p50": 57691.0, "metro_p75": 74251.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52007.75, "metro_p50": 74177.4, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49127.0, "metro_p50": 59600.0, "metro_p75": 61192.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80764.0, "metro_p50": 97914.6, "metro_p75": 109817.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56751.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 66560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37088.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 42640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 44200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 79539.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67783.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:04.785723+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}