{"schema_version": 1, "id": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 390, "label": "Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY MSA", "slug": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:00:55.008465+00:00", "headline": "Healthcare props up a Hudson Valley economy losing ground elsewhere.", "headline_summary": "Dutchess-Orange unemployment held at 4.1% in August even as the area posted one of the only year-over-year private job declines in the Hudson Valley, with healthcare reaching a record 246,000 regional jobs while metro Registered Nurse and Software Engineer advertised pay moved lower.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "August 2026, Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh MSA"}, {"label": "Regional healthcare employment", "value": "246,000 jobs", "context": "Record August high, +1.9% year-over-year"}, {"label": "Dutchess-Orange employment trend", "value": "Declined YoY", "context": "One of few Hudson Valley areas to contract through Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "NY State minimum wage", "value": "Frozen at $17.00/$16.00", "context": "2027 increase paused after statewide job losses"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Healthcare is carrying the region, and that concentration has limits.", "body": "Private education and health services hit a record 246,000 jobs regionally in August, the metro's clearest source of employment growth, while Dutchess-Orange posted one of the only year-over-year private-sector declines in the Hudson Valley. A single-sector growth engine leaves the local economy more exposed if healthcare demand or Medicaid funding patterns shift."}, {"headline": "White-collar advertised pay is softening here while the nation holds firmer.", "body": "Metro Registered Nurse, Software Engineer and Business Analyst advertised pay all moved down moderately to significantly this month, while national figures for the same roles were flat or rising. Commerce leaders benchmarking the region's competitiveness for professional-services investment should treat this as a signal worth monitoring over the coming months."}, {"headline": "Sub-regional divergence matters more than the metro unemployment number.", "body": "Dutchess-Orange's year-over-year private employment decline contrasts with stronger performance in Sullivan, Rockland and Westchester counties, even as the metro's 4.1% unemployment rate looks stable on the surface. Economic development decisions calibrated to the metro-wide rate may miss meaningful intra-regional weakness."}, {"headline": "A handful of roles show real local wage strength worth flagging.", "body": "Accountant (+significant), Marketing Specialist (+significant), Warehouse Manager (+significant) and Financial Analyst (+moderate) advertised pay all rose locally this month, outpacing their national counterparts in several cases. These pockets suggest selective demand in finance-adjacent and logistics functions even as the broader white-collar picture softens."}], "local_conditions": "Dutchess and Orange counties posted a 4.1% unemployment rate in August 2026, holding steady even as the broader Dutchess-Orange area registered one of the only year-over-year private employment declines in the Hudson Valley, a divergence from growth posted in neighboring Sullivan, Rockland and Westchester counties. Private education and health services remains the metro's primary counterweight, reaching a record 246,000 regional jobs in August, while advertised pay for Registered Nurses, Software Engineers and Business Analysts moved lower on a metro basis even as several of those same roles held firm or rose nationally.", "implications": "Metro-level softening in white-collar advertised pay alongside continued healthcare job growth points to an economy where expansion capacity is concentrated in a narrower set of sectors than the regional unemployment rate alone would suggest, a relevant distinction for commerce leaders weighing where local investment or storefront activity is likely to find support. Divergence between Dutchess-Orange's year-over-year employment decline and stronger neighboring counties suggests businesses evaluating site location or expansion within the Hudson Valley should look past the metro unemployment headline to sub-regional performance. Current conditions suggest economic development organizations may want to track whether healthcare's hiring strength is translating into broader consumer spending locally, given that Medicaid-funded health roles carry different income and spending profiles than the finance and professional-services jobs the region has lost.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS is scheduled to publish October MSA-level unemployment data in late November; watch whether the Dutchess-Orange private-sector decline recorded through September persisted or stabilized."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "New York State's minimum wage freeze, triggered by statewide job losses through July, leaves the Hudson Valley wage floor unchanged into 2027; local retailers and service employers should note this removes one near-term cost variable from planning even as inflation continues to outpace most measured wage gains."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide private-sector job growth of 6,700 in September contrasts with New York City's 23,000 monthly decline; whether the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown metro tracks the state or the city's pattern over the next two reporting cycles will clarify whether the region's current softness is a local or regional phenomenon."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National business formation hit a 17-quarter high in NYC in Q1 2026; local chambers and economic development corps should track county-level business registration data to see whether that formation wave is reaching Dutchess and Orange counties or remaining concentrated downstate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32993.0, "metro_p50": 36173.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32760.0, "metro_p50": 35048.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37212.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45552.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33217.0, "metro_p50": 35000.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 51501.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 72846.0, "metro_p75": 79227.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36077.5, "metro_p50": 42780.2, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39908.8, "metro_p75": 41444.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31638.0, "metro_p50": 41236.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40027.75, "metro_p50": 46040.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 75920.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88649.0, "metro_p50": 107817.0, "metro_p75": 121846.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 112431.0, "metro_p50": 134261.4, "metro_p75": 148851.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 112909.0, "metro_p50": 133088.4, "metro_p75": 149911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63649.5, "metro_p50": 76500.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78027.0, "metro_p50": 96912.0, "metro_p75": 102361.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 74994.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73665.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70618.0, "metro_p50": 88240.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 51640.2, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44912.75, "metro_p50": 72171.6, "metro_p75": 75063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82280.0, "metro_p50": 82495.0, "metro_p75": 89834.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 56420.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37974.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43191.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 49732.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53841.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57158.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 56192.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68931.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:28:33.649853+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}