{"schema_version": 1, "id": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 390, "label": "Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY MSA", "slug": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:22.328672+00:00", "headline": "Poughkeepsie metro's growth narrows to one sector.", "headline_summary": "Dutchess County's 3.9% unemployment rate looks strong, but the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh metro was the only Hudson Valley area with falling private-sector employment over the past year, propped up almost entirely by a record 239,800 regional jobs in private education and health services.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dutchess County unemployment", "value": "3.9%", "context": "vs 4.3% Orange County, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Metro private-sector employment trend", "value": "Only Hudson Valley area declining", "context": "12 months ending August 2026"}, {"label": "Private education & health services jobs", "value": "239,800", "context": "Record high, +2.8% year-over-year regionally"}, {"label": "County wage divergence", "value": "$1,453 vs $1,276", "context": "Dutchess vs Orange County avg weekly wage, Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "One sector is doing the region's economic lifting.", "body": "Private education and health services reached a record 239,800 jobs regionally even as the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh metro posted the only private-sector decline in the Hudson Valley. A metro economy this dependent on one sector's momentum carries more concentration risk than the headline unemployment rate suggests."}, {"headline": "Dutchess and Orange County are no longer moving together.", "body": "Dutchess County's unemployment rate (3.9%) and near-flat employment decline (-0.1% year-over-year) look markedly stronger than Orange County's 4.3% rate and -1.9% employment drop. Commerce messaging and investment comparisons that treat the metro as uniform may obscure a real divergence in local business conditions."}, {"headline": "Wage data points to labor tightness, not labor weakness.", "body": "Dutchess County's average weekly wage of $1,453 in Q1 2026 outpaces Orange County's $1,276 and sits well above many peer Hudson Valley counties, even as employment growth cools. That combination is consistent with a market where available workers, not available jobs, is the binding constraint in parts of the metro."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has reached this metro's doorstep.", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% annually in September against 3.4% inflation, reversing two years of real wage gains \u2014 a dynamic that, layered onto a metro already showing employment softness, points to thinner consumer purchasing power supporting local retail and services spending."}], "local_conditions": "Dutchess County's unemployment rate held at a tight 3.9% in August while Orange County sat at 4.3%, yet the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh metro was the only Hudson Valley area to post a private-sector employment decline over the 12 months ending in August 2026. Growth has narrowed to a single engine \u2014 private education and health services hit a record 239,800 jobs regionally, anchored by institutions like Vassar, Marist, Bard, and the Culinary Institute of America \u2014 while broader hiring momentum that lifted Dutchess County 1.9% a year ago has clearly stalled.", "implications": "Concentrated growth in education and health services alongside an overall employment decline signals a metro economy carried by a narrow set of institutional anchors rather than broad-based business expansion, a dynamic commerce leaders should weigh before treating current conditions as a general growth signal. Local government stability in the Hudson Valley offers a counterweight to the private-sector softness, but the gap between Dutchess County's resilience (-0.1% year-over-year) and Orange County's steeper decline (-1.9%) suggests investment and expansion conditions vary meaningfully even within the metro. Current conditions suggest economic development leaders consider tracking sub-county performance separately rather than treating the MSA as a single uniform market when evaluating business climate or investment messaging.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Whether Dutchess County's relative resilience (-0.1% year-over-year employment) holds or converges toward Orange County's steeper decline (-1.9%) over the next two monthly releases will clarify whether the metro's downturn is broadening or staying contained."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Private education and health services has been the region's sole consistent growth driver; any deceleration in hiring at anchor institutions like Vassar, Marist, Bard, or regional health systems would remove the metro's main offsetting force against broader softness."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide labor force participation slipped from 61.5% to 61.3% in July; a continued local decline would suggest the metro's steady unemployment rate reflects fewer job-seekers rather than a genuinely strengthening labor market, a distinction that matters for reading the headline rate correctly."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "New York's WARN filings in the broader region remain modest (46 notices, 4,694 workers over 90 days) with no large-scale layoffs reported regionally by the Federal Reserve, suggesting the metro's employment decline so far reflects softer hiring rather than active job cuts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32822.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37970.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32510.0, "metro_p50": 35048.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42900.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 85600.0, "metro_p75": 93988.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33217.0, "metro_p50": 35000.0, "metro_p75": 39392.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37978.0, "metro_p50": 44512.0, "metro_p75": 47951.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62761.0, "metro_p50": 72915.0, "metro_p75": 78811.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34592.0, "metro_p50": 38896.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36082.75, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38438.8, "metro_p75": 41444.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 49419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 78022.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90980.0, "metro_p50": 111140.0, "metro_p75": 121985.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113256.25, "metro_p50": 133453.0, "metro_p75": 148456.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 112908.5, "metro_p50": 119888.0, "metro_p75": 127738.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 75630.0, "metro_p75": 87218.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77359.5, "metro_p50": 96912.0, "metro_p75": 102361.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 73326.2, "metro_p75": 79452.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84375.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85960.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37190.0, "metro_p50": 52597.0, "metro_p75": 64624.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61462.0, "metro_p50": 83105.0, "metro_p75": 91394.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47232.25, "metro_p50": 62774.0, "metro_p75": 75021.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82280.0, "metro_p50": 82495.0, "metro_p75": 102843.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 65572.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54901.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57015.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72064.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:03.162569+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/poughkeepsie-newburgh-middletown-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}