{"schema_version": 1, "id": "pocatello-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 382, "label": "Pocatello, ID MSA", "slug": "pocatello-id-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:35:30.170383+00:00", "headline": "Pocatello restaurant postings collapse while GM pay jumps 11%.", "headline_summary": "Southeastern Idaho restaurant job postings fell to 51 in August from 124 a year ago even as Pocatello's Restaurant Manager/GM pay climbed to $66,160, well above the $59,618 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Regional restaurant postings", "value": "51", "context": "vs 124 one year ago, southeastern Idaho"}, {"label": "Pocatello MSA unemployment", "value": "4.2%", "context": "vs 3.6% Idaho statewide, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "GM/Restaurant Manager pay", "value": "$66,160", "context": "vs $59,618 national median (national trending down)"}, {"label": "Idaho tipped cash wage", "value": "$3.35/hr", "context": "Unchanged; no 2026 increase scheduled"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Restaurant postings cratered faster here than regional peers.", "body": "Southeastern Idaho restaurant/food service postings fell to 51 in August from 124 a year earlier, a steeper decline than the broader Eastern Idaho region's 128-vs-206 drop. Reduced posting volume ahead of holiday ramp-up may signal operators are either staffed adequately or struggling to justify new requisitions against labor cost pressure."}, {"headline": "General Manager pay is climbing even as national GM pay softens.", "body": "Metro Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay sits at $66,160, up significantly and well above the $59,618 national median, which is itself trending down. Divergence this sharp suggests local competition for proven operators rather than a broad market trend, worth flagging when benchmarking leadership comp against national survey tables."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay softened while GM pay surged \u2014 a compression signal.", "body": "Metro Shift Manager advertised pay fell moderately to $30,784 while GM pay jumped, narrowing the usual progression between the two roles. Consider whether promotion-path pay gaps are wide enough to retain shift leads pursuing advancement rather than exiting for GM roles elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage freeze keeps FOH economics advantaged over BOH.", "body": "Idaho's $3.35 tipped cash wage and flat $7.25 federal minimum remain unchanged for 2026, while server and crew advertised pay hold stable locally near national norms. Back-of-house roles like Line Cook ($30,820 metro vs. $36,826 national) carry the heavier relative underpricing risk as kitchen staffing tightens into Q4."}], "local_conditions": "Pocatello MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September while restaurant/food service job postings in the surrounding southeastern region fell to 51 in August versus 124 a year earlier, a steeper drop than the 128-vs-206 pattern seen regionally across Eastern Idaho. Shrinking posting volume alongside flat local nonfarm payrolls suggests operators are pulling back on open requisitions rather than losing workers outright, a pattern consistent with the national cooling in accommodation and food services job openings (916,000 to 673,000 since January).", "implications": "Thinner posting volume combined with Bannock County's civilian labor force holding near 41,101 points to fewer active restaurant job seekers locally, which raises fill-time risk precisely as Q4 holiday staffing needs build. Idaho's frozen $3.35 tipped cash wage against a flat $7.25 federal minimum keeps back-of-house labor costs structurally pinned while front-of-house advertised pay in the metro continues to firm, widening the FOH/BOH compensation gap operators must manage within total labor cost as a share of revenue. Consider reviewing October-November staffing plans now, given that national data shows smaller-than-usual seasonal pullback in hiring demand this year.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether southeastern Idaho restaurant posting counts rebound in October as holiday staffing needs emerge; August's steep year-over-year drop could reverse quickly or signal a durable pullback in hiring appetite."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Bannock County's labor force participation and unemployment have been improving (3.8% in July), tightening the applicant pool just as restaurants typically ramp hiring for November-December volume."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National operator survey data shows 49% of restaurants planning increased retention investment as turnover moderates \u2014 track whether local operators shift budget from recruiting toward retention bonuses or scheduling tools over the next two months."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "No Idaho minimum or tipped wage changes are scheduled, unlike Florida's move to $15.00 in September, but continued BOH wage stagnation against rising GM and FOH pay could widen internal equity gaps worth reviewing before year-end budget cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34662.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 45340.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24135.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 26000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25941.0, "metro_p50": 30820.0, "metro_p75": 32968.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47500.0, "metro_p50": 66160.0, "metro_p75": 86139.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34006.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27455.5, "metro_p50": 30784.0, "metro_p75": 34578.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "pocatello-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "pocatello-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:56.071792+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/pocatello-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/pocatello-id-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}