{"schema_version": 1, "id": "phoenix-mesa-scottsdale-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 297, "label": "Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA", "slug": "phoenix-mesa-scottsdale-az-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:01:20.122020+00:00", "headline": "Phoenix payrolls grow as its labor pool shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Metro nonfarm payrolls rose 1.0% year-over-year to 2.48 million even as the civilian labor force fell roughly 3%, leaving Phoenix unemployment at 4.3% against Arizona's 4.9%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro vs. state unemployment", "value": "4.3%", "context": "vs 4.9% Arizona, 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Metro labor force change", "value": "-3.1% YoY", "context": "2.67M, driven by retirements, low migration"}, {"label": "Metro payroll growth", "value": "+1.0% YoY", "context": "2,475,200 jobs, September 2026"}, {"label": "Metro avg. hourly earnings", "value": "+4.5% YoY", "context": "$36.99, above state ECI of 4.2%"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Payroll growth and shrinking labor force tell different stories.", "body": "Metro payrolls rose 1.0% year-over-year even as the labor force fell roughly 3%, a divergence consistent with demographic exit (retirements, slower in-migration) alongside steady employer demand. For economic development planners, this changes the read on expansion capacity: job growth is occurring, but from a narrower base of available workers."}, {"headline": "Phoenix outperforms the state while staying linked to its broader trends.", "body": "Metro unemployment at 4.3% sits meaningfully below Arizona's 4.9%, and Phoenix payroll gains have outpaced the statewide total in recent months. Tucson and Prescott lagging behind suggests momentum is concentrating in Maricopa County, a detail relevant to any regional economic comparison press or policy audiences might draw."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are outrunning inflation locally, unlike the nation.", "body": "Arizona's real wages rose an estimated 2.1% year-over-year even as national real wage growth turned slightly negative, a divergence worth flagging for consumer spending forecasts. Metro average hourly earnings growth of 4.5% also exceeds the state's 4.2% employment cost index reading, suggesting Phoenix wage pressure is running ahead of the broader state trend."}, {"headline": "Sector divergence complicates a single-number economic story.", "body": "Government employment added 22,200 jobs statewide month-over-month while construction and health care each lost jobs, and leisure-hospitality fell 2.2% year-over-year against a national gain. A headline unemployment or payroll figure masks this unevenness, which matters for any sector-specific policy or investment conversation."}], "local_conditions": "Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale nonfarm payrolls reached 2,475,200 in September, up 1.0% year-over-year, even as the metro's civilian labor force has contracted roughly 3% from a year earlier amid slowing net migration and baby boomer retirements. Statewide labor force participation has declined for seven consecutive months to 59.9%, while Arizona's unemployment rate holds at a post-pandemic high of 4.9% against the metro's lower 4.3% reading, pointing to a Phoenix labor market that remains comparatively resilient within a softening state picture.", "implications": "Payroll growth running ahead of the labor force suggests Phoenix employers are drawing on a shrinking pool of available workers, a dynamic that affects project timelines, service capacity, and expansion planning across both private firms and public agencies. Wage data showing metro pay (4.5% year-over-year for average hourly earnings) outpacing the state's 4.2% employment cost index growth indicates the Phoenix labor market is tightening faster than Arizona overall, which has implications for municipal budget planning and commercial rent/cost forecasting tied to labor-intensive sectors. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should consider reviewing labor force participation trends alongside unemployment, since a low jobless rate paired with a shrinking labor pool signals a different kind of tightness than one driven by strong net hiring.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Labor force participation has declined seven straight months statewide; watch whether Maricopa County's participation rate stabilizes faster than the rest of Arizona, which would support the case that Phoenix's tightness reflects demographic shifts more than cyclical demand changes."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Job ads in the Phoenix metro, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), stood at roughly 41,600 in October with a median posted pay of $67,000. Track whether this volume holds or softens alongside the national Job Postings Index, which rose 2.8% year-over-year."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Construction and health care employment losses in Arizona this period run counter to national gains in both sectors; a second consecutive month of local declines would be a stronger signal than a one-month dip and worth flagging for infrastructure and health-system planning."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Arizona WARN notices fell 74% year-over-year in affected-worker count, concentrated in manufacturing, transportation, and information/technology. Monitor whether national WARN activity (Intel, PayPal filings in October) extends into Arizona-based operations given Intel's local manufacturing footprint."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30145.0, "metro_p50": 35339.0, "metro_p75": 39073.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29262.0, "metro_p50": 32805.4, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33261.25, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 83992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32881.0, "metro_p50": 36050.0, "metro_p75": 42395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35980.0, "metro_p50": 42081.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60155.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 78850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34143.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35137.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31076.5, "metro_p50": 34996.0, "metro_p75": 35707.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36805.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36421.25, "metro_p50": 43179.4, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 77715.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87702.0, "metro_p50": 105686.0, "metro_p75": 112926.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107346.0, "metro_p50": 140000.0, "metro_p75": 154662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91518.0, "metro_p50": 126911.8, "metro_p75": 141166.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62953.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76516.0, "metro_p50": 95895.0, "metro_p75": 101232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 78480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48466.5, "metro_p50": 63108.0, "metro_p75": 72650.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70857.5, "metro_p50": 102630.6, "metro_p75": 113914.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39359.25, "metro_p50": 55886.0, "metro_p75": 62486.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64915.5, "metro_p50": 91500.0, "metro_p75": 109802.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49126.5, "metro_p50": 59500.0, "metro_p75": 67091.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80125.0, "metro_p50": 97365.0, "metro_p75": 108000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67119.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 100664.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40747.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 59298.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 125233.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 83534.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 77883.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36078.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64028.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "phoenix-mesa-scottsdale-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "phoenix-mesa-scottsdale-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "phoenix-mesa-scottsdale-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:28:15.344169+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/phoenix-mesa-scottsdale-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/phoenix-mesa-scottsdale-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}