{"schema_version": 1, "id": "panama-city-lynn-haven-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 339, "label": "Panama City-Lynn Haven, FL MSA", "slug": "panama-city-lynn-haven-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:58:31.227232+00:00", "headline": "Bay County job losses lead the state even as investment pipeline builds.", "headline_summary": "Bay County posted Florida's steepest county-level employment decline (-2.3%) even as unemployment held at 4.4% and nearly 2,000 jobs sit in the local development pipeline.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Bay County unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "August 2026, vs 4.2% year-ago and 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Bay County employment decline", "value": "-2.3%", "context": "Largest among FL's 27 largest counties, Mar 2025-26"}, {"label": "Announced local job pipeline", "value": "~2,000 jobs", "context": "Seven development projects, incl. Voltari Electric's 280"}, {"label": "Bay County average weekly wage growth", "value": "3.4%", "context": "vs 4.3% statewide, both trailing 3.5%+ CPI gains"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Bay County's job losses look like an outlier.", "body": "The -2.3% over-the-year employment decline through March 2026 was the sharpest among Florida's 27 largest counties, even as the county's labor force expanded 1.0% and statewide unemployment improved for a fourth straight month. That combination is consistent with a local adjustment tied to specific sectors or projects."}, {"headline": "Construction pay is accelerating ahead of a national labor squeeze.", "body": "Metro construction laborer pay rose significantly to $43,888, outpacing the national median of $40,727, at the same time Florida contractors report immigration enforcement is straining their workforce and 41% of the trade's workers are expected to retire by 2031. Commerce and workforce leaders should treat construction capacity as a constraint on how quickly the metro's 2,000 announced development jobs translate into completed projects."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay for healthcare roles trails the state's hiring momentum.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose moderately to $87,360 locally, but still sits well below the $102,252 national median even as healthcare accounted for 61% of Florida's net job growth in August. A persistent gap of this size is relevant for regional economic developers assessing whether the metro's healthcare sector can scale alongside state demand."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated across the metro's job basket.", "body": "HVAC technician pay rose significantly (up to $72,638) and financial analyst pay climbed moderately to $104,416 above the national figure, while manufacturing production worker pay fell moderately and data engineer pay dropped significantly. That spread indicates momentum is sector-specific, a useful distinction for commerce leaders gauging which parts of the local economy are actually tightening."}], "local_conditions": "Bay County's unemployment rate held at 4.4% in August, running a full point below Florida's 47th-place national ranking for job growth, while the county posted the steepest over-the-year employment decline of any of Florida's 27 largest counties between March 2025 and March 2026. Seven announced development projects totaling nearly 2,000 jobs, including Voltari Electric's 280-position commitment, and a labor force that grew 1.0% year-over-year point to expansion capacity even as current payroll counts soften.", "implications": "Divergence between near-term softness (the -2.3% employment decline) and forward-looking investment commitments (nearly 2,000 announced jobs) suggests the metro is in a transition period, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders calibrate expansion timing and public messaging. Average weekly wages rose 3.4% locally, modestly ahead of the state's 4.3% figure but still a signal that labor costs are climbing even as headcount growth lags population and labor-force growth. Local economic development officials and chambers may find it useful to track whether the Voltari Electric project and peer announcements convert to measurable payroll gains in the next two BLS releases, a leading indicator of whether current softness is cyclical or structural.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Official BLS metro-level data for September and October will not post until mid-to-late November, so the August 4.4% unemployment figure remains the most current local read. Government economists and press should hold off on drawing October-specific conclusions until the official release lands."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction labor supply, already strained by immigration enforcement effects on the trade workforce and a thin pipeline of young workers (just 6% expressed trade interest in 2026), will determine how quickly Bay County's announced 2,000-job development pipeline becomes realized payroll. Delays here would show up first in construction wage data, where local pay already runs ahead of the national median."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Voltari Electric and the other six announced projects begin reporting hiring activity in coming BLS releases will clarify if Bay County's employment decline was a trough or the start of a longer slide. Chambers and economic development corps tracking these projects have a near-term opportunity to validate the metro's recovery narrative with hard payroll numbers."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Florida's fourth consecutive month of falling unemployment alongside flat statewide payrolls suggests labor-force shrinkage is driving the improvement. If that pattern holds locally, Bay County's unemployment rate could fall further without signaling a stronger local economy."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26525.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33582.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26937.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 31430.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32496.75, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48833.0, "metro_p50": 77550.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30434.0, "metro_p50": 33948.4, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43888.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 64121.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32009.25, "metro_p50": 32709.2, "metro_p75": 33277.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33697.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32981.0, "metro_p50": 39291.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33159.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37430.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39475.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53521.0, "metro_p50": 72638.0, "metro_p75": 73502.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76457.25, "metro_p50": 87360.0, "metro_p75": 94110.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93630.0, "metro_p50": 124603.6, "metro_p75": 138850.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90717.75, "metro_p50": 90768.0, "metro_p75": 90768.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54561.0, "metro_p50": 61548.6, "metro_p75": 66771.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68950.0, "metro_p50": 104416.0, "metro_p75": 104416.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41616.25, "metro_p50": 48006.0, "metro_p75": 50627.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47073.25, "metro_p50": 62068.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 71115.4, "metro_p75": 87000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 41500.0, "metro_p75": 48906.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71680.75, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56465.0, "metro_p50": 69940.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78463.0, "metro_p50": 80730.8, "metro_p75": 91011.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 72681.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35100.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55440.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 67500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 39520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 83237.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65311.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Florida Department of Commerce, Bureau of Workforce Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bay County unemployment held at 4.4% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bay County posted steepest employment decline among FL's 27 largest counties"}, {"source_name": "WJHG News", "source_url": null, "statement": "Seven development projects bringing nearly 2,000 jobs, incl. Voltari Electric"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Healthcare drove 61% of Florida's net job growth in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Florida Council of 100 / industry reporting", "source_url": null, "statement": "41% of construction workforce expected to retire by 2031; enforcement straining labor pool"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida unemployment fell for a fourth consecutive month to 4.4% in September"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "panama-city-lynn-haven-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "panama-city-lynn-haven-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "panama-city-lynn-haven-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:28:01.876809+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/panama-city-lynn-haven-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/panama-city-lynn-haven-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}