{"schema_version": 1, "id": "palm-coast-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 331, "label": "Palm Coast, FL MSA", "slug": "palm-coast-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:58:31.976144+00:00", "headline": "Palm Coast restaurant pay splits: crew up, management down sharply.", "headline_summary": "Flagler County unemployment held at 5.5% while advertised Restaurant Manager/GM pay fell to $52,107 against a national $59,724, even as Crew pay rose to $31,135, above the $30,066 national figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Flagler County unemployment", "value": "5.5%", "context": "vs 4.4% Florida, 4.1% national (August/Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Flagler County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,006", "context": "vs $1,518 Florida average (March 2026)"}, {"label": "Florida tipped minimum wage", "value": "$11.98/hr", "context": "Effective Sept 30, 2026, full minimum $15.00"}, {"label": "Flagler County labor force", "value": "56,612", "context": "Up from 5.4% unemployment level in May 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Local wage growth is running weaker than the labor supply suggests.", "body": "Flagler County's average weekly wage of $1,006 as of March trails both state ($1,518) and national figures, even as the civilian labor force grows. Advertised restaurant pay reflects this \u2014 Server pay down moderately and Restaurant Manager/GM pay down significantly against national medians \u2014 suggesting local operators have more room to hold the line on non-mandated wage increases than operators in tighter metros."}, {"headline": "Crew pay is bucking the metro's broader downward pattern.", "body": "Crew advertised pay rose moderately to $31,135, now above the national median of $30,066, even as Server and Manager/GM pay moved down locally. This divergence is consistent with operators prioritizing entry-level staffing ahead of the winter tourism surge while holding salaried and tipped-role budgets flatter."}, {"headline": "Manager pay compression may signal a retention gap building quietly.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay sits at $52,107 locally against $59,724 nationally \u2014 a significant gap that widened this month. With turnover already running near 80% industry-wide, management roles priced well below national levels risk losing experienced candidates to metros offering closer-to-national compensation, even where cost of living is comparable."}, {"headline": "The tipped-wage floor just moved, and side-work rules just loosened nationally.", "body": "Florida's tipped minimum rose to $11.98 on September 30 at the same time DOL withdrew the federal 80/20 rule governing non-tip-producing duties. Operators scheduling FOH staff for slower shoulder-season shifts now have more flexibility to assign cleaning and prep work without tipped-wage compliance risk, which may ease some of the cost pressure from the wage floor increase."}], "local_conditions": "Flagler County's unemployment rate held at 5.5% in August, more than a point above the state's 4.4% and nearly a point and a half above the national 4.1%, even as the labor force expanded to 56,612 in September \u2014 evidence that population growth is outpacing job creation in the Palm Coast metro. Florida's minimum wage reached its final scheduled step of $15.00 on September 30, with tipped minimum rising to $11.98, landing squarely in the middle of the winter tourism ramp-up that drives most of this metro's restaurant hiring.", "implications": "Rising local labor supply alongside a soft 5.5% unemployment rate suggests restaurant operators may have more applicant flow for entry-level front-of-house roles than peers in tighter Florida metros like Miami (3.2%), but the simultaneous $15.00 minimum wage step compresses the margin benefit of that supply. Back-of-house roles remain the harder constraint nationally \u2014 cooks are projected to grow 12% in demand through 2035 versus 2% for servers \u2014 meaning Palm Coast operators adding FOH staff for the winter season should expect BOH recruiting to lag behind local labor force gains. Consider reviewing shift-level labor cost models now, before peak season staffing locks in, to confirm the $15.00 wage floor plus tipped minimum changes don't quietly push labor cost past the 28-32% of gross sales target common among Florida fast casual operators.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Winter tourism staffing ramps through November and December as Florida restaurants add back roughly the seasonal workforce lost each summer. Palm Coast operators should expect FOH ad volume, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, to climb through year-end."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Local unemployment at 5.5% against a 4.2% rate a year ago indicates labor supply is loosening faster than state and national trends. Watch whether this translates into lower advertised pay pressure on entry-level roles over the next two reporting cycles, or whether it reflects population growth outpacing job creation and not labor market slack."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Florida's $15.00 minimum wage is now locked through 2027 with CPI-W adjustments starting 2028, removing near-term step-increase uncertainty. Use this stability window to model multi-year labor cost scenarios instead of reacting to wage changes year by year."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM and Assistant Manager advertised pay both moved down significantly locally this month, a divergence from the stable national trend. If this persists next month, it may indicate Palm Coast operators are actively repricing management compensation, pointing to a sustained trend beyond a one-month data anomaly."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24601.0, "metro_p50": 27249.0, "metro_p75": 33791.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28477.0, "metro_p50": 28477.6, "metro_p75": 28478.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 31135.0, "metro_p75": 31135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30117.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47000.0, "metro_p50": 52107.0, "metro_p75": 57500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26440.0, "metro_p50": 31199.0, "metro_p75": 32885.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26763.0, "metro_p50": 31917.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "FlaglerLive", "source_url": null, "statement": "Flagler County unemployment rate stable at 5.5% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Florida Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida minimum wage reached $15.00 with $11.98 tipped minimum Sept 30, 2026"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)/BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Flagler County civilian labor force reached 56,612 in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cooks projected to grow 12% 2025-2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Florida restaurant industry research notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida fast casual labor cost target of 28-32% of gross sales"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 rule for tipped employee side work in October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "palm-coast-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "palm-coast-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:28:00.159655+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/palm-coast-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/palm-coast-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}