{"schema_version": 1, "id": "palm-coast-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 331, "label": "Palm Coast, FL MSA", "slug": "palm-coast-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:24.772525+00:00", "headline": "Palm Coast's trades boom amid a service-wage slump", "headline_summary": "Metro electrician pay and construction laborer pay rose significantly even as food service worker pay fell significantly, landing just before Florida's minimum wage climbs to $15.00 on September 30.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Florida unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "August 2026, third straight monthly decline"}, {"label": "Florida minimum wage", "value": "$15.00/hr", "context": "Effective Sept 30, 2026, up from $14.00"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages now trailing inflation nationally"}, {"label": "Florida job-seeker ratio", "value": "93 per 100 openings", "context": "Tightening but not acute shortage statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Skilled trades are pulling away from the metro's wage pack.", "body": "Electrician and construction laborer advertised pay rose significantly while manufacturing and HVAC technician pay declined, a split consistent with Florida's statewide construction demand concentrated in data centers and civil infrastructure rather than broad-based building activity. For a metro reliant on construction-linked economic activity, this points to selective capacity constraints rather than a general trades shortage."}, {"headline": "Lower-wage service roles show real purchasing-power erosion.", "body": "Food service worker pay fell significantly and delivery driver pay fell moderately even as national wage growth has cooled to 3.0% against roughly 3.4% inflation. A local wage decline layered on a national real-wage gap is consistent with softening discretionary spending capacity among the metro's lower-income consumer base, a relevant input for retail and hospitality investment timing."}, {"headline": "State minimum-wage step-up arrives at a fragile moment for service pay.", "body": "Florida's wage floor rises from $14 to $15 on September 30, directly ahead of a reporting period in which metro food service and retail cashier pay were flat to declining. Whether this functions as a floor correction or a cost pressure on already-softening service-sector margins is the key open question for local commerce conditions into Q4."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability remains the metro's quiet anchor.", "body": "Statewide education and health services added the largest annual job gains (39,000, +2.5%) even as construction, manufacturing, and financial activities posted losses, a pattern likely mirrored locally given the sector's scale in Flagler County. That stability offers a counterweight to private-sector softness worth tracking in any local economic-health assessment."}], "local_conditions": "Palm Coast metro conditions this month track the broader Florida pattern of deceleration rather than contraction: state unemployment hovered near 3.8%-4.5% depending on series, construction and manufacturing softened statewide while education and health services kept adding jobs, and Flagler County's labor market remains tied closely to Space Coast and Southeast Florida commuting and consumer patterns given the discontinuation of a standalone Palm Coast MSA unemployment series. Florida's minimum wage increase to $15.00 on September 30 (rising further toward $16.00 under CPI indexing) lands directly on a metro basket skewed toward retail, food service, and home health roles, making it a measurable wage-floor event rather than a background policy footnote.", "implications": "Advertised pay data show a metro economy bifurcating by skill tier \u2014 construction laborer and electrician pay rose significantly while manufacturing production and food service pay softened, consistent with the statewide pattern of blue-collar/skilled-trade strength alongside white-collar and lower-wage retail softness. For commerce leaders, this suggests the local consumer base's purchasing power is uneven across income tiers even as headline job counts hold steady, which has direct bearing on retail and hospitality demand forecasts tied to local expansion or investment timing. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether the state minimum-wage step-up on September 30 shows up as a one-time repricing in retail and food-service advertised pay versus a sustained upward drift, since that distinction will matter for reading local consumer-spending resilience into Q4.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Florida's minimum wage rises to $15.00 (tipped: $11.98) effective September 30, with a further step toward $16.00 under CPI indexing. Watch metro retail, food service, and home health advertised pay over the following 60 days for whether the increase holds as a floor or compresses further given current downward pay trends in several of those roles."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National payroll growth has decelerated sharply (29,000 added in September versus a 45,000 prior-year average, with July-August revised down 60,000), and Florida's own unemployment path has been volatile, ranging from roughly 3.8% to 4.5% depending on the reporting series this year. A clearer read on whether Florida's unemployment stabilizes or resumes its climb toward the state's own 4.9% forecast will shape how commerce leaders read local demand into year-end."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction and manufacturing posted year-over-year losses statewide even as electrician and construction laborer pay rose locally, a combination suggesting demand is concentrating in fewer, higher-complexity projects (data centers, civil works) rather than broad-based building activity. Local economic development stakeholders should watch whether this narrows the base of construction-linked commercial activity in Flagler County specifically."}, {"category": "Data limitation to flag", "body": "Palm Coast's standalone BLS metro unemployment series remains discontinued, forcing reliance on state-level and adjacent-metro (Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville) proxies that may not fully reflect Flagler County conditions. Press and government readers should treat any single-point metro unemployment claim this month with appropriate caution pending clearer federal data continuity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26826.0, "metro_p50": 32237.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27949.0, "metro_p50": 31391.0, "metro_p75": 32160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28175.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60577.0, "metro_p50": 85800.0, "metro_p75": 99959.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29181.0, "metro_p50": 32001.0, "metro_p75": 33720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 58240.0, "metro_p75": 60320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27016.0, "metro_p50": 29491.0, "metro_p75": 35452.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29320.5, "metro_p50": 36816.0, "metro_p75": 38322.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27783.0, "metro_p50": 29535.8, "metro_p75": 29786.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32206.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 40472.8, "metro_p75": 41831.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 50336.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77205.5, "metro_p50": 87994.0, "metro_p75": 93663.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 109707.0, "metro_p50": 146311.2, "metro_p75": 158200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 134752.4, "metro_p75": 152955.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 64972.8, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71576.25, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 98581.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54571.75, "metro_p50": 65830.6, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46307.25, "metro_p50": 61516.2, "metro_p75": 70269.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72643.0, "metro_p75": 87458.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 46088.0, "metro_p75": 51497.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69442.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61238.0, "metro_p50": 72000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78210.5, "metro_p50": 96200.0, "metro_p75": 109119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 50057.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33228.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65704.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 42120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51589.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 48902.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 72951.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66922.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Florida Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida unemployment rate at 4.5% in August, third consecutive monthly decline"}, {"source_name": "Florida Department of Economic Opportunity / State Statute", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida minimum wage rising from $14 to $15 effective September 30, 2026"}, {"source_name": "Florida Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Education and health services added 39,000 jobs statewide (+2.5%), largest sector gain"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National payrolls added 29,000 jobs in September, below 45,000 12-month average"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National wage growth at 3.0% annual vs. 3.4% inflation"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRED", "source_url": null, "statement": "Palm Coast MSA unemployment series discontinued by BLS"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "palm-coast-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "palm-coast-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "palm-coast-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:36.009476+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/palm-coast-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/palm-coast-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}