{"schema_version": 1, "id": "oxnard-thousand-oaks-ventura-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 357, "label": "Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA", "slug": "oxnard-thousand-oaks-ventura-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:51.747465+00:00", "headline": "Oxnard's low jobless rate masks a shrinking labor force.", "headline_summary": "Ventura County unemployment held at 5.0% in August, but a labor force that continues contracting alongside statewide net out-migration suggests tighter capacity, not stronger demand, is driving the number.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Ventura County unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs 5.1% CA, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Ventura County labor force", "value": "412,500", "context": "Declining amid net out-migration trend"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages no longer outpacing inflation"}, {"label": "CA WARN activity (90-day)", "value": "288 notices / 13,674 workers", "context": "Includes local Ventura Coastal filing (71 workers)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A shrinking labor force, not booming demand, explains low joblessness.", "body": "Ventura County's labor force has contracted alongside net out-migration, meaning the metro's unemployment rate understates underlying economic softness. Commerce leaders citing the rate publicly should pair it with labor force trend data to avoid an overly optimistic read."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades carry the metro's wage momentum.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay rose significantly and Electrician pay rose moderately locally, consistent with statewide healthcare job growth and aerospace/defense-adjacent trade demand. Sectors tied to in-person, licensed, or technical work are absorbing most of the metro's upward wage pressure while office-based roles lag."}, {"headline": "A single named WARN filing is a data point, not a trend \u2014 yet.", "body": "Ventura Coastal's September notice affecting 71 workers is a modest, isolated disclosure against California's 288 WARN notices over 90 days affecting 13,674 workers statewide. Worth tracking for repetition, but not yet evidence of metro-wide layoff momentum."}, {"headline": "Wage-vs-inflation gap narrows the real purchasing power story locally.", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, and California's year-over-year wage gains slowed to 3.1%, meaning even metro roles posting 'up' pay signals may only be holding real value flat. Local consumer spending momentum deserves more scrutiny than headline pay figures alone would suggest."}], "local_conditions": "Ventura County's unemployment rate held at 5.0% in August 2026, a shade below the state's 5.1% but still elevated against the national 4.1%, with nonfarm employment at 314,000 against a labor force of 412,500 that continues to shrink through net out-migration. Local softness is consistent with statewide patterns \u2014 financial activities and information sector contraction statewide, paired with a Ventura Coastal WARN filing affecting 71 workers in September \u2014 while healthcare, construction, and consumer-facing sectors remain the metro's steadier job-growth engines.", "implications": "Divergence between a stable regional unemployment rate and declining labor force participation suggests the metro's labor supply constraint, not demand weakness, is now the binding factor on local economic capacity \u2014 a distinction that matters for anyone assessing whether Oxnard can support business expansion versus whether it simply has fewer available workers. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection or investment timing should weigh that advertised pay in healthcare (Registered Nurse up significantly) and skilled trades (Electrician, up moderate) is rising faster than office/administrative roles, signaling where local wage pressure is concentrated. Consider evaluating workforce participation trends alongside unemployment data when briefing stakeholders, since a low jobless rate paired with a shrinking labor force tells a materially different story than a genuinely tight, growing labor market.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "September metro unemployment data, due via EDD/BLS release in October, will show whether the 5.0% rate holds or drifts toward the state's 5.1%-5.2% range projected by UCLA for 2026."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued net out-migration and labor force decline could tighten the pool of available workers even as job openings persist, a dynamic commerce leaders should flag when assessing expansion feasibility in retail, hospitality, and healthcare."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether additional WARN filings follow Ventura Coastal's September notice, which would help distinguish an isolated agricultural-processing event from a broader local softening."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "California's minimum wage rises to $17.40 on January 1, 2027; commerce leaders and policy economists should watch whether Ventura County employers in retail and food service begin signaling pay or staffing adjustments ahead of that date."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33044.0, "metro_p50": 37180.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32041.0, "metro_p50": 36221.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34456.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 77329.6, "metro_p75": 84890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34766.0, "metro_p50": 37113.0, "metro_p75": 44470.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36209.0, "metro_p50": 41919.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64922.75, "metro_p50": 81858.0, "metro_p75": 88366.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35759.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38612.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33353.0, "metro_p50": 41059.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39499.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 54319.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39217.0, "metro_p50": 49821.6, "metro_p75": 56160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 73900.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103799.0, "metro_p50": 126880.0, "metro_p75": 136861.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 117532.5, "metro_p50": 172500.0, "metro_p75": 190988.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100477.0, "metro_p50": 141582.0, "metro_p75": 162249.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65521.5, "metro_p50": 75458.0, "metro_p75": 85634.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75678.5, "metro_p50": 97662.8, "metro_p75": 111085.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44656.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 81700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57631.75, "metro_p50": 74437.0, "metro_p75": 84445.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80767.75, "metro_p50": 101842.0, "metro_p75": 118125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40732.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 74357.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 111646.0, "metro_p75": 141186.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60099.75, "metro_p50": 89500.0, "metro_p75": 100625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83358.0, "metro_p50": 99863.8, "metro_p75": 117143.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 93600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 135930.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 45864.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63149.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 135315.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 87254.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 94378.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 82904.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39342.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 76029.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "oxnard-thousand-oaks-ventura-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "oxnard-thousand-oaks-ventura-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "oxnard-thousand-oaks-ventura-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:30.876128+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oxnard-thousand-oaks-ventura-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oxnard-thousand-oaks-ventura-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}