{"schema_version": 1, "id": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 383, "label": "Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA", "slug": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:35:16.362483+00:00", "headline": "Oshkosh GM pay climbs as the labor pool shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay rose to a $57,000 metro median even as Winnebago County's workforce contracted 1.2% year-over-year \u2014 the steepest decline among Wisconsin's largest counties.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Winnebago County unemployment", "value": "2.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, 2025 annual"}, {"label": "County workforce change", "value": "-1.2% YoY", "context": "Steepest decline among WI's 7 largest counties"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Wisconsin tipped minimum wage", "value": "$2.33/hr", "context": "Unchanged since 2009"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is rising locally while the nation pulls back.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay moved up to $57,000 in Oshkosh while the national median fell to $59,618, a divergence consistent with Winnebago County's shrinking labor force forcing operators to protect leadership continuity even as national competition for the role eases."}, {"headline": "Front-line pay is softening just as the labor pool shrinks.", "body": "Server pay (down, moderate) and Crew pay (down, moderate) are both declining locally even as the county workforce contracted 1.2% year-over-year \u2014 a combination that risks masking a retention problem behind seemingly favorable wage trends."}, {"headline": "National turnover relief may not translate locally.", "body": "Food-service job openings nationally fell from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, suggesting the worst of the hiring frenzy has eased \u2014 but Oshkosh's independent labor force contraction means local operators may not see the same loosening in candidate supply."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's frozen wage floor keeps BOH cost pressure structural.", "body": "Wisconsin's $7.25 minimum and $2.33 tipped wage remain unchanged since 2009, meaning any BOH wage growth is market-driven rather than policy-driven \u2014 in a county with a shrinking labor pool, this leaves back-of-house pay with no statutory ceiling to anchor against."}], "local_conditions": "Winnebago County's labor market remains structurally tight, with a 2.7% annual unemployment rate and a workforce that shrank 1.2% year-over-year through September 2025 \u2014 the steepest decline among Wisconsin's seven largest counties, meaning restaurant operators compete for workers from a pool that is actively contracting rather than merely tight. Nationally, restaurant job openings have fallen from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, and operators report smaller-than-usual September seasonal pullback as students return to school, signaling the Oshkosh candidate pool may stay thinner through fall than prior years.", "implications": "Metro General Manager pay climbing to $57,000 against a national median trending down to $59,618 suggests Oshkosh operators are bidding up leadership roles even as national pressure eases \u2014 a sign local scarcity, not national benchmarks, is setting the price for management talent. With Server and Crew advertised pay both softening locally while GM comp rises, labor cost allocation is shifting toward retaining supervisory continuity rather than entry-level headcount; consider reviewing whether scheduling and cross-training investments can offset softer hourly pay without triggering turnover in a county that lost workforce year-over-year.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Winnebago County's workforce contraction (-1.2% year-over-year) is the steepest among Wisconsin's largest counties; watch whether this trend deepens through year-end and further restricts the base of workers available for both FOH and BOH roles."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National restaurant job openings have dropped by roughly a quarter since January; if this loosening reaches the Fox Valley corridor, operators may gain modest negotiating leverage on starting pay for the first time in several quarters."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Divergence between rising local GM pay and declining national GM pay may widen further if Winnebago County's labor shortage persists into Q4 hiring for the holiday season."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National operator surveys show 51% planning staff-efficiency investments and 45% optimizing scheduling as labor-cost levers; watch whether Oshkosh operators adopt similar scheduling-technology responses given the county's tighter-than-national labor supply."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26607.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37835.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37738.0, "metro_p50": 50414.2, "metro_p75": 56015.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23852.0, "metro_p50": 26435.2, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 36125.4, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 57000.0, "metro_p75": 62750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28793.0, "metro_p50": 35077.0, "metro_p75": 38740.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28701.0, "metro_p50": 32557.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:27.588401+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}