{"schema_version": 1, "id": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 383, "label": "Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA", "slug": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:30:27.830270+00:00", "headline": "Oshkosh GM pay climbs as county labor pool shrinks", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay rose to a $57,000 metro median even as Winnebago County posted the steepest employment decline among Wisconsin's large counties, down 1.2% year-over-year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Oshkosh-Neenah unemployment rate", "value": "2.8%", "context": "vs 4.1% national (Aug 2025, seasonally adj.)"}, {"label": "Winnebago County employment change", "value": "-1.2%", "context": "Steepest decline among WI's 7 largest counties"}, {"label": "National restaurant payroll gain", "value": "+59,200 jobs", "context": "Largest monthly gain since January 2023"}, {"label": "Operators reporting weaker traffic", "value": "49%", "context": "Despite hiring surge, signals demand mismatch"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Crew pay is dropping locally while cooks hold steady.", "body": "Metro crew wages fell significantly to a $26,022 median versus a stable national figure near $29,791, even as Line Cook pay held flat at $35,360. Widening entry-level gaps against national rates may erode the metro's ability to compete for multi-unit brand transfers or relocating QSR operators."}, {"headline": "GM pay is rising against a national decline \u2014 a retention signal.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay in Oshkosh climbed to $57,000, moving opposite the national trend, which is down moderately to $59,762. Local operators appear to be bidding up management compensation specifically to counter a shrinking county labor pool rather than following broader industry softening."}, {"headline": "Headcount growth is outpacing demand, a margin risk for Q4.", "body": "National restaurant payrolls posted their largest monthly gain since January 2023 even as nearly half of operators report weaker traffic. Metro operators adding staff into this mismatch should watch labor-cost-as-share-of-revenue closely going into the holiday staffing build."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's frozen wage floor no longer explains the whole story.", "body": "State minimum and tipped wages haven't moved since 2009, yet Winnebago County's shrinking labor force is creating wage pressure through scarcity rather than policy. Compensation strategy built solely around statutory minimums may understate real market pressure on entry-level and back-of-house pay."}], "local_conditions": "Oshkosh-Neenah's labor market remains structurally tight \u2014 August 2025's 2.8% seasonally adjusted unemployment rate sat nearly a point and a half below the national 4.1% \u2014 but Winnebago County posted the steepest over-the-year employment decline among Wisconsin's seven largest counties, a 1.2% drop through September 2025 that signals contraction beneath the low-unemployment headline. Restaurant hiring locally tracks the national pattern of a strong August payroll gain (59,200 jobs added nationally) paired with softening traffic, meaning operators are adding staff into a demand environment that 49% of operators describe as weaker than a year ago.", "implications": "Full-service restaurant employment nationally still sits 3.6% below pre-pandemic levels, and Oshkosh's shrinking labor force compounds that gap locally \u2014 meaning back-of-house recruiting will likely stay harder than front-of-house even as overall applicant flow improves. Wisconsin's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $2.33 tipped wage leave little statutory pressure on labor costs, but a contracting county labor force raises retention risk independent of wage floors, particularly for kitchen roles where crew pay locally fell significantly year-over-year to $26,022. Consider reviewing back-of-house pay progression separately from front-of-house tipped-role economics, since the two segments face materially different supply pressure despite sharing a static state wage floor.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Winnebago County's 1.2% year-over-year employment decline is the sharpest among Wisconsin's large counties \u2014 watch December county-level releases to see whether restaurant-adjacent sectors (retail, hospitality) are driving the contraction or absorbing displaced workers."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National tip-credit elimination momentum (7 states now ban it outright, Florida's minimum hits $15 on September 30) hasn't reached Wisconsin, but multi-state operators should monitor whether this pressure migrates into state legislative sessions affecting the $2.33 tipped floor."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Gasoline above $4/gallon nationally is beginning to test discretionary restaurant spending; watch metro-level traffic data over the next two months to see whether Oshkosh casual-dining and full-service segments see faster softening than QSR."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National restaurant job openings fell 27% from January to July and quits declined correspondingly \u2014 if that stabilization reaches Oshkosh, expect reduced turnover-driven compensation pressure on Crew and Shift Manager roles heading into 2027 budget planning."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27870.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37835.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37635.0, "metro_p50": 47874.4, "metro_p75": 52715.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23199.25, "metro_p50": 26022.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30148.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 57000.0, "metro_p75": 62750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28793.0, "metro_p50": 35077.0, "metro_p75": 38740.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28701.0, "metro_p50": 32557.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:35:19.455639+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}