{"schema_version": 1, "id": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 383, "label": "Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA", "slug": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:56:37.379789+00:00", "headline": "Oshkosh wages climb as headcount softens, signaling a tightening market.", "headline_summary": "Winnebago County posted Wisconsin's largest Q4 2025 wage gain at 7.1% even as employment fell 0.9% year-over-year and unemployment edged up to 3.3% in August.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Winnebago County unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "Up 0.4pts year-over-year; below 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Winnebago Q4 2025 wage growth", "value": "7.1%", "context": "Largest wage gain of any Wisconsin county"}, {"label": "Winnebago County employment change", "value": "-0.9%", "context": "Year-over-year through Q1 2026, despite wage gains"}, {"label": "Wisconsin labor force participation", "value": "64.9%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Wage gains and payroll declines are moving in opposite directions.", "body": "Winnebago County posted the state's largest Q4 2025 wage increase (7.1%) alongside a 0.9% year-over-year employment decline through Q1 2026. That combination points to fewer workers but stronger pay for those retained in key trades \u2014 a sign of capacity constraints in a market that is not broadly expanding."}, {"headline": "Construction and skilled-trade pay outpaces the metro's white-collar roles.", "body": "Construction laborer pay rose moderately (to $44,720) and HVAC technician pay climbed to $69,500, while software engineer and accountant pay fell significantly locally. Commerce leaders evaluating project timelines should expect trade labor costs to stay firm even as professional-services pay softens."}, {"headline": "Public-sector pay transparency offers a stable benchmark amid private-sector noise.", "body": "Winnebago County's posted Master Plumber rate ($36.43\u2013$50.21/hour) and steady government job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), suggest public employment continues functioning as a wage anchor locally, even as private-sector figures like teacher pay (down significantly, $37,487 metro median) diverge sharply from national trends."}, {"headline": "Metro wage growth is outrunning the state's wage story, for now.", "body": "Wisconsin saw the steepest real wage decline of any state (-5.1% year-over-year), yet Winnebago County posted above-state wage gains through early 2026. That gap may not hold if statewide inflation pressure identified in state-level data reaches the county in coming quarters."}], "local_conditions": "Winnebago County unemployment edged up to 3.3% in August, a four-tenths-point rise from a year earlier, even as fourth-quarter 2025 wage gains in the county topped the state at 7.1% and Q1 2026 average weekly wages grew another 1.7%. Employment levels have softened slightly (down 0.9% year-over-year through March) while wage pressure in skilled trades and healthcare roles persists, a pattern consistent with a metro economy that is tightening for specific skill sets even as overall headcount growth stalls statewide.", "implications": "Divergence between falling headcount and rising wages signals a labor market rationing skilled talent in manufacturing, healthcare, and construction-adjacent trades, a dynamic distinct from one broadly expanding or contracting \u2014 a dynamic with direct consequences for capital investment timing and public infrastructure planning in the metro. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion should treat wage pressure in electricians, HVAC technicians, and warehouse management as an early signal of where capacity constraints will show up first; current conditions suggest reviewing sector-specific wage trajectories before finalizing local investment or facility-siting timelines.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Winnebago County's next quarterly wage report will show whether the Q4 2025 gain (7.1%) was a one-time spike or the start of a sustained trend \u2014 a distinction that matters for commercial lease and capital-project forecasting."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide manufacturing employment is forecast 1.3% below year-ago levels by October; local manufacturers including Amcor and Alliance Laundry Systems warrant monitoring for whether that state-level softening appears in county payroll counts."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Wisconsin's median wage reached a record high even as inflation outpaces wage growth statewide \u2014 watch whether Winnebago County's above-average wage gains continue to buffer the metro from the consumer-spending pressure building elsewhere in the state."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "National labor force growth has slowed amid demographic shifts and immigration policy changes; Wisconsin's labor force participation (64.9%) remains well above the national rate (61.8%), a structural advantage worth tracking as a locational asset for commerce leaders making the case for metro investment."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23400.0, "metro_p50": 27920.0, "metro_p75": 31036.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24355.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 30680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 42224.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57121.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 84500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30043.0, "metro_p50": 38100.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40290.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 48500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60030.0, "metro_p50": 72352.0, "metro_p75": 79305.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35449.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26780.0, "metro_p50": 30680.0, "metro_p75": 34561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38688.0, "metro_p50": 46366.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45874.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 69500.0, "metro_p75": 76680.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86562.0, "metro_p50": 99320.0, "metro_p75": 106889.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56841.0, "metro_p50": 103100.0, "metro_p75": 114334.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 90729.25, "metro_p50": 131337.0, "metro_p75": 145389.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53231.0, "metro_p50": 64721.0, "metro_p75": 67262.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62856.0, "metro_p50": 80904.4, "metro_p75": 86345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58986.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 75165.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48552.0, "metro_p50": 58054.0, "metro_p75": 67922.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85176.0, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37487.0, "metro_p75": 46211.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49920.0, "metro_p50": 69993.2, "metro_p75": 81005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66387.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 85223.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73401.25, "metro_p50": 87552.0, "metro_p75": 102910.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70981.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34817.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 51270.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 74951.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 68162.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 63576.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35190.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 59858.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "USAFacts/BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County unemployment at 3.3% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County had largest Q4 2025 wage gains in Wisconsin at 7.1%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County employment declined 0.9% year-over-year, wages up 1.7% Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin labor market research notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin manufacturing employment forecast 1.3% below October 2025 levels"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin labor force participation at 64.9% vs national 61.8%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:48.487202+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oshkosh-neenah-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}