Oshkosh jobs shrink even as unemployment stays near record lows.
3.1%
MSA unemployment rate
July 2026, down from 3.2% in June
-1.2%
Winnebago Co. employment change
Steepest decline among WI's 7 largest counties
$1,383
Avg weekly wage, Winnebago Co.
+1.7% YoY, trailing WI's statewide 3.7% pace
3.9% vs 3.7-4.2%
Wisconsin core inflation vs. wage growth
Thin real-wage margin statewide
This Month's Takeaways
01
Low unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce, not strength.
Winnebago County's 1.2% employment decline from September 2024 to 2025 occurred despite a 2.7% jobless rate, a pattern consistent with people leaving the labor force rather than employers adding jobs. Economic development planning should weight labor force participation, not just the unemployment headline, when assessing capacity for new investment.
02
Manufacturing softness breaks from the metro's industrial identity.
Advertised pay for manufacturing production workers fell moderately even as Oshkosh Corporation and peers remain active employers, mirroring statewide manufacturing's 0.2% employment decline. A historically manufacturing-anchored metro showing wage softness in that sector is a signal worth tracking against Wisconsin's broader Trade/Transportation/Manufacturing contraction.
03
Warehouse and logistics pay diverging upward from factory floor pay.
Warehouse/fulfillment advertised pay rose moderately to $43,472 (above the $38,000 national figure) while manufacturing assembler pay declined, suggesting the metro's blue-collar economic momentum is shifting toward distribution and fulfillment rather than production. That divergence may matter for how local economic development corps pitch the metro's industrial strengths to prospective employers.
04
White-collar technical pay is cooling here while the nation holds firm.
Software engineer advertised pay fell significantly to $104,588, a wide and widening gap against the $153,652 national median, while business analyst and accountant postings also declined. A metro-level pullback in technical and professional advertised pay, even as national figures hold stable, points to a narrower local base of knowledge-economy demand than the broader Fox Valley corridor narrative suggests.
Local Economic Conditions
Winnebago County's 3.1% unemployment rate remains among Wisconsin's lowest, yet the Oshkosh-Neenah MSA posted the largest over-the-year employment decline among the state's seven largest counties, a combination suggesting a labor market tightened less by growth than by workers exiting or relocating. Advertised pay for manufacturing production workers and software engineers has softened locally even as warehouse and data-engineering pay climbed, pointing to an economy where goods-movement and logistics activity is outrunning traditional manufacturing and white-collar technical hiring.
Open Threads in the Data
Local employment contraction alongside low unemployment is consistent with a shrinking labor pool rather than retreating demand, a dynamic that affects site-selection and expansion conversations more than compensation strategy. Commerce leaders weighing local investment should distinguish between a market that is cooling because demand is soft versus one constrained because fewer working-age residents are available to staff new activity; current conditions suggest reviewing labor force participation trends alongside unemployment before benchmarking expansion feasibility against headline jobless figures alone.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$28,072 |
↓ Moderate decline |
598 |
| Retail Cashier |
$30,160 |
↓ Moderate decline |
231 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$43,472 |
↑ Moderate increase |
164 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$73,398 |
→ Stable |
1,146 |
| Delivery Driver |
$38,257 |
→ Stable |
532 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$75,110 |
↑ Moderate increase |
12 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$43,680 |
→ Stable |
166 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$76,960 |
↓ Moderate decline |
65 |
| HVAC Technician |
$68,560 |
↑ Moderate increase |
10 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$41,256 |
↓ Moderate decline |
275 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$39,414 |
↑ Moderate increase |
169 |
| Operations Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$30,680 |
↓ Significant decline |
38 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$45,760 |
→ Stable |
401 |
| Registered Nurse |
$101,117 |
→ Stable |
1,184 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$41,156 |
↑ Moderate increase |
220 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$104,588 |
↓ Significant decline |
59 |
| Data Engineer |
$127,700 |
↑ Moderate increase |
1,125 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$64,721 |
↓ Significant decline |
51 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$69,240 |
→ Stable |
31 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$60,000 |
↑ Significant increase |
12 |
| Business Analyst |
$79,542 |
↓ Significant decline |
66 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$79,309 |
→ Stable |
39 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$39,000 |
↓ Moderate decline |
356 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$66,560 |
↑ Significant increase |
74 |
Industry Snapshot · Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +18.0% |
↑ +102.7% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +16.0% |
↑ +118.6% |
| Retail Trade |
↓ −7.5% |
↑ +89.6% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
→ −0.9% |
↑ +142.4% |
| Information |
↑ +8.1% |
↓ −22.0% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +7.5% |
↑ +176.7% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↓ −8.0% |
↑ +79.0% |
| Education & Health Services |
↓ −17.0% |
↑ +58.4% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ +2.5% |
↑ +116.5% |
| Government |
↑ +67.4% |
↑ +289.3% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Worth watching
Winnebago County's employment decline has persisted for a full year; a second consecutive quarterly BLS release showing continued contraction would confirm a structural labor-supply story rather than a one-time statistical blip worth flagging to state economists.
Emerging pressure point
Wisconsin's wage growth (3.7-4.2% projected) is running close to core inflation (3.9%), and real purchasing power gains are thin; local retail and food-service advertised pay already shows declines, a combination that could show up as softer consumer spending data in Fox Valley retail corridors.
Early indicator
National WARN filings from Amazon, Meta, and other large employers have not yet produced a visible local echo, but commerce leaders should watch whether regional logistics or distribution employers see any spillover given the metro's rising warehouse/fulfillment pay trend.
Potential inflection point
Wisconsin's Black unemployment rate (7.2%) running nearly three times the white rate (2.3%) is a statewide equity signal; whether this gap narrows or widens locally over the next two quarters will matter for assessing the breadth of the metro's labor force participation recovery.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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