{"schema_version": 1, "id": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 349, "label": "Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA", "slug": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:58:13.159825+00:00", "headline": "Orlando restaurant pay softens as minimum wage floor rises.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager pay fell to a $55,000 metro median and Catering Manager pay dropped to $34,286, even as Florida's $15.00 minimum wage and $11.98 tipped floor took effect September 30.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Orlando metro unemployment", "value": "4.0%", "context": "vs 4.4% Florida, 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Florida minimum wage", "value": "$15.00/hr", "context": "Effective Sept. 30, 2026; tipped floor $11.98"}, {"label": "Metro Restaurant Manager/GM pay", "value": "$55,000", "context": "Down moderately vs $59,724 national median"}, {"label": "Orlando labor force vs. job growth", "value": "+17,000 vs +6,000", "context": "Year to June 2026; pushed unemployment up at midyear"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is softening while hourly floors climb by law.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell to a metro median of $55,000, a moderate decline against the $59,724 national figure, even as the state-mandated $15.00 minimum wage pushes hourly floors upward. Compression between management and hourly compensation may weaken the incentive structure operators rely on to retain supervisory talent."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay decline signals a cooling banquet and events segment.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay dropped significantly to $34,286, trailing the national median of $50,076 by nearly $16,000. Orlando's convention and events-driven hospitality base may be adjusting staffing models as demand normalizes post-peak."}, {"headline": "Line cook and crew pay holding steady despite BOH hiring strain.", "body": "Line Cook ($35,360) and Crew ($29,900) advertised pay held stable locally even as national data shows cooks projected to grow 12% through 2035 against 2% for servers, a structural BOH labor shortage. Flat local pay against rising demand projections may understate the wage pressure building for back-of-house roles heading into peak season."}, {"headline": "Labor force growth is outpacing job creation, loosening frontline supply.", "body": "Orlando's labor force grew by more than 17,000 over the year ending June 2026 while employment rose by only 6,000, nudging unemployment higher at midyear before settling near 4.0%. Larger applicant pools may give operators more leverage on entry-level hiring just as peak-season staffing ramps up."}], "local_conditions": "Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford's unemployment rate sits at 4.0%, below both the state's 4.4% and national 4.1%, even as the metro's labor force has expanded faster than local job creation over the past year, loosening the applicant pool for frontline roles. Florida's minimum wage step to $15.00 effective September 30, combined with the tipped minimum rising to $11.98, lands squarely in Orlando's tourism-dependent restaurant base just as operators begin staffing for the November\u2013March visitor surge.", "implications": "Metro advertised pay for Restaurant Manager/GM ($55,000) and Assistant Manager ($36,251) is down moderately against national medians, suggesting Orlando operators are finding more management-level supply even as front-line wage floors rise by statute \u2014 a divergence that compresses the pay gap between management and hourly tiers and complicates retention incentives for supervisory staff. Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule gives multi-unit operators room to reduce direct wage exposure for side work during slower dayparts, but Florida's own $11.98 tipped floor limits how much that flexibility actually saves locally. Consider reviewing whether management compensation structures still provide adequate separation from hourly pay following the minimum wage increase, particularly ahead of peak season staffing.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Winter tourism season staffing ramps through November and December; watch whether the $15.00 minimum wage and $11.98 tipped floor push operators toward service fees or price increases to fill seasonal roles, with wage premiums playing a smaller role."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Catering Manager pay's significant decline locally may foreshadow softer events and banquet demand; operators staffing for convention season should watch whether this segment rebounds or continues cooling."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "DOL's withdrawal of the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule creates new flexibility for side-work scheduling; watch whether Florida operators adjust shift structures to capture savings given the state's $11.98 tipped floor still applies."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "BOH hiring difficulty nationally (cooks projected +12% through 2035) against flat local Line Cook pay ($35,360) suggests a gap that may widen; monitor whether Orlando kitchens begin raising back-of-house pay ahead of peak-season demand."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27361.0, "metro_p50": 36251.2, "metro_p75": 41362.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34159.0, "metro_p50": 34286.0, "metro_p75": 34286.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25749.0, "metro_p50": 29900.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30755.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48057.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 62322.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27026.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34425.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28198.0, "metro_p50": 32233.6, "metro_p75": 34042.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Orlando Economic Partnership / FloridaCommerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford unemployment rate and comparison to state/national rates"}, {"source_name": "Florida Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida minimum wage increased to $15.00, tipped minimum to $11.98, effective Sept. 30, 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% 2025-2035 versus 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Orlando Economic Partnership", "source_url": null, "statement": "Orlando labor force grew 17,000 while employment grew 6,000 year to June 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:46.689358+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}