{"schema_version": 1, "id": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 349, "label": "Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA", "slug": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:37.018751+00:00", "headline": "Orlando wages outpace inflation while business confidence lags", "headline_summary": "Orlando-area wages rose 8.3% year-over-year against 3.4% inflation, yet only 35% of local businesses expressed confidence in the national economy last quarter \u2014 a two-year low.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Orlando MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.6%", "context": "Up from 3.3% a year earlier; Florida at 4.5%"}, {"label": "Orlando wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "8.3% vs 3.4%", "context": "July 2026 wage growth vs. CPI, a widening real gain"}, {"label": "Local business confidence (national economy)", "value": "35%", "context": "Two-year low, per Orlando Economic Partnership Q2 survey"}, {"label": "Labor force vs. employment growth gap", "value": "17,000 vs 6,000", "context": "Year ending June 2026, Orlando MSA"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force growth is outrunning job creation, not the reverse.", "body": "Orlando's labor force expanded by more than 17,000 over the year ending June 2026 while employment grew by only 6,000, pushing unemployment to 4.6%. That pattern reflects more people seeking work locally rather than employers cutting positions \u2014 a sign of in-migration and participation growth testing the metro's absorption capacity."}, {"headline": "Real wages are rising locally even as the national picture reverses.", "body": "Orlando wages rose 8.3% year-over-year through July against 3.4% inflation, a notably wider real-wage gain than the national trend, where average hourly earnings growth (3.0%) now trails inflation (3.4%). Local purchasing power appears to be strengthening at a moment when national commentary is flagging a wage-inflation squeeze."}, {"headline": "Business confidence has decoupled from the metro's wage data.", "body": "Only 35% of Orlando businesses expressed confidence in the national economy in Q2, a two-year low, even as local wage and job growth outpaced the state and national averages. The disconnect may signal that commerce leaders are pricing in national-level risk (tariffs, federal layoffs, financial-sector contraction) more than local fundamentals."}, {"headline": "Leisure and hospitality concentration remains Orlando's defining labor-market feature.", "body": "Leisure and hospitality added 12,200 jobs over the year, the metro's largest sector gain, while Orlando also leads Florida in cumulative WARN notices (576 notices, 78,195 workers historically), reflecting the volatility built into a tourism-anchored economy. Economic development planning should treat this concentration as a known structural exposure, not a one-time risk."}], "local_conditions": "Orlando-Kissimmee unemployment held near 4.5-4.6% through mid-2026 as labor force growth of roughly 17,000 outpaced net job creation of just 6,000, a gap that is consistent with slower economic momentum even as the metro continues adding population. Florida's minimum wage increase to $15.00 on September 30, 2026 lands against a backdrop of advertised pay already running well above inflation in Orlando (8.3% year-over-year versus 3.4% CPI as of July), suggesting wage pressure in food service, retail and administrative roles is now a structural feature of the local economy rather than a temporary post-pandemic adjustment.", "implications": "Local business climate signals are mixed: real wage gains are outpacing inflation locally even as business confidence in Orlando sits at a two-year low (35% confident in the national economy, per the Partnership's Q2 survey), suggesting commerce leaders face a market where consumer purchasing power is improving but employer sentiment has not caught up. Public-sector stability appears intact at the metro level even as national government payrolls contracted, which matters for municipal and county revenue planning tied to employment-based tax bases. Current conditions suggest economic development and chamber leaders track the gap between rising advertised wages and softening business confidence as a leading indicator of whether consumer spending momentum will hold through year-end.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Florida's minimum wage rose to $15.00 on September 30, 2026, with future increases tied to inflation going forward. Watch whether food-service and administrative advertised pay in Orlando \u2014 already elevated \u2014 shows a step change in Q4 data or had already priced in the increase."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Orlando business confidence sits at a two-year low even as hard labor-market data remains comparatively strong. A continued divergence between sentiment surveys and employment/wage figures over the next two months would suggest confidence, not fundamentals, is the leading risk to watch."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National financial-activities employment has fallen 129,000 since a May 2025 peak and government payrolls are down 216,000 over the year. Monitor whether either trend shows up in Orlando's professional/business services or local public-sector employment figures, both historically more insulated than the national pattern."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Florida's statewide worker-to-opening ratio has tightened to roughly 93 seekers per 100 openings, down from more acute shortage levels. If Orlando's ratio moves similarly, it would mark a shift from a supply-constrained to a more balanced labor market, relevant to any analysis of local business expansion capacity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27723.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27209.0, "metro_p50": 30726.0, "metro_p75": 32269.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30781.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54804.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 85800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29828.0, "metro_p50": 31754.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31936.0, "metro_p50": 36899.0, "metro_p75": 38906.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52592.0, "metro_p50": 62909.0, "metro_p75": 67600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30524.0, "metro_p50": 33240.2, "metro_p75": 36510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32436.0, "metro_p50": 38895.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28788.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33904.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32040.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 44069.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 62157.0, "metro_p75": 68066.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76581.0, "metro_p50": 86700.0, "metro_p75": 89098.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104678.0, "metro_p50": 131555.6, "metro_p75": 145000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91381.0, "metro_p50": 125334.0, "metro_p75": 145180.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 67931.0, "metro_p75": 77502.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69904.0, "metro_p50": 84614.4, "metro_p75": 95903.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53726.0, "metro_p50": 66035.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42532.0, "metro_p50": 64380.4, "metro_p75": 72222.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65835.5, "metro_p50": 72325.2, "metro_p75": 92948.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 47815.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 87486.0, "metro_p75": 97184.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69940.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 78749.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76485.5, "metro_p50": 95973.6, "metro_p75": 107750.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 80080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 100098.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36992.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 79856.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60956.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34461.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66883.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:25.610289+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/orlando-kissimmee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}