{"schema_version": 1, "id": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 323, "label": "OR NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "or-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:58:06.297671+00:00", "headline": "Rural Oregon's manufacturing and government losses outpace its health care gains.", "headline_summary": "Oregon's 5.0% unemployment rate has held steady for 19 months, but nonmetro counties are absorbing a 4,300-job manufacturing decline and 4,000-job government drop that health care's 12,100-job annual gain cannot fully offset.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Oregon unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% U.S. rate; stable since Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide manufacturing job loss", "value": "-4,300 jobs", "context": "Largest annual sectoral decline in Oregon"}, {"label": "Oregon wage growth rank", "value": "30th nationally", "context": "Down from historical top-5 status, 2020-2026"}, {"label": "Counties with employment decline", "value": "24 of 36 counties", "context": "Year-over-year through September 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Manufacturing losses hit hardest outside Oregon's metro core.", "body": "Statewide manufacturing shed 4,300 jobs over the past year, the steepest sectoral decline in Oregon, and nonmetro counties carry outsized exposure given manufacturing's traditional concentration in rural industrial bases. Advertised pay for Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler roles sits at a flat $36,670 locally, trailing the $39,520 national median, consistent with softening local demand."}, {"headline": "Government job losses compound rural economic exposure.", "body": "Oregon government employment fell 4,000 jobs statewide over the past year, a trend with amplified local effect in nonmetro counties where public-sector payrolls often anchor local spending and household stability. Commerce leaders should treat public-sector stability as a watch item this cycle."}, {"headline": "Wage erosion makes nonmetro Oregon a harder sell for investment.", "body": "Oregon's slide to 30th nationally in cumulative wage growth since 2020, with $73 billion in estimated missing wages statewide, directly weakens the state's pitch to employers weighing where to locate new facilities or expand existing ones. Nonmetro areas, competing against both coastal Oregon metros and out-of-state rural markets, face this headwind without the healthcare and tech wage gains cushioning Portland-area numbers."}, {"headline": "Health care remains the one dependable nonmetro growth engine.", "body": "Statewide health care and social assistance employment grew 3.8% over the past year, adding 12,100 jobs, and advertised pay for roles like Certified Nursing Assistant/Home Health Aide ($52,000 metro median, up moderately) outpaces the national figure by a wide margin. This divergence signals health care demand is structural in rural Oregon, tied to an aging population and care-access gaps that point to sustained, longer-term hiring need."}], "local_conditions": "Oregon's nonmetropolitan counties operate within a statewide labor market holding at 5.0% unemployment for September, a rate stuck in a narrow 5.0%-5.3% band for 19 consecutive months, with rural counties disproportionately exposed to the state's 4,300-job manufacturing decline and 4,000-job government employment drop over the past year. Construction and health care gains statewide (up 2,000 and 1,700 jobs respectively in September) offer rural economies partial offset, but sectors with historically strong nonmetro footprints \u2014 manufacturing, timber-adjacent production, government services \u2014 are contracting.", "implications": "Rural and nonmetro employers face a labor market where statewide wage growth has fallen to 30th nationally since 2020, a competitive erosion that compounds when local advertised pay for production and logistics roles (Manufacturing Production Worker at $36,670, Warehouse/Fulfillment at $39,000) sits flat against a 3.3% statewide CPI benchmark used to set 2026 minimum wage increases. Commerce leaders evaluating whether nonmetro Oregon is positioned for new investment or expansion should weigh that government and manufacturing \u2014 two historically stabilizing employment bases outside urban centers \u2014 are shrinking locally while health care and construction absorb only a fraction of that loss; consider reviewing county-level nonfarm employment trends before assuming statewide stabilization applies evenly across nonmetro geography.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Oregon Employment Department publishes October county-level data on November 18; watch whether the 24 counties that lost nonfarm employment year-over-year through September expand or contract, as this will clarify whether nonmetro softness is spreading or stabilizing."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "PacificSource's fourth layoff round since September 2025, cutting 134 jobs across Springfield, Bend, Salem and Portland by December 31, touches multiple nonmetro-adjacent communities; monitor whether other regional health insurers or rural hospital systems follow with similar WARN filings."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN activity remains elevated (3,860 notices, 340,316 workers affected through late October) even as Oregon's own WARN-notice volume has fallen 71% year-over-year; divergence suggests Oregon-specific conditions, worth tracking for whether national volatility eventually reaches the state."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Labor force participation softness tied to accelerating baby boomer retirements is a demographic trend with particular force in rural counties with older population profiles; commerce leaders planning facility expansions or relocations should factor in a shrinking available workforce independent of wage competitiveness."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27794.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36932.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28797.0, "metro_p50": 33038.0, "metro_p75": 34632.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33765.25, "metro_p50": 39000.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61453.5, "metro_p50": 78584.0, "metro_p75": 89375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30282.0, "metro_p50": 33675.0, "metro_p75": 35415.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66768.0, "metro_p50": 87318.0, "metro_p75": 96720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33480.0, "metro_p50": 36670.0, "metro_p75": 40353.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34621.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30264.0, "metro_p50": 34122.0, "metro_p75": 37095.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41080.0, "metro_p50": 52000.0, "metro_p75": 56228.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43642.8, "metro_p75": 48500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62373.0, "metro_p50": 72040.0, "metro_p75": 73580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95997.0, "metro_p50": 116272.0, "metro_p75": 125273.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113986.0, "metro_p50": 145920.0, "metro_p75": 163928.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 108750.0, "metro_p50": 152955.0, "metro_p75": 156816.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57840.0, "metro_p50": 67038.0, "metro_p75": 75750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72584.0, "metro_p50": 86263.0, "metro_p75": 89854.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52124.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 81130.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53257.0, "metro_p50": 95154.6, "metro_p75": 112820.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74251.25, "metro_p50": 84721.6, "metro_p75": 97465.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44929.0, "metro_p50": 63744.0, "metro_p75": 71112.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56809.5, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 110135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 89000.0, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80631.25, "metro_p50": 92760.0, "metro_p75": 94982.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58074.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 87500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39581.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 96057.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 76370.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 82606.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67145.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Oregon Employment Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oregon unemployment held at 5.0% in September, range-bound 19 months"}, {"source_name": "Oregon Employment Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing shed 4,300 jobs statewide over the past year"}, {"source_name": "Oregon labor market research notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oregon ranks 30th nationally for wage growth since 2020, $73B missing wages"}, {"source_name": "Oregon Employment Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Health care added 12,100 jobs, 3.8% annual growth statewide"}, {"source_name": "Oregon WARN Act notice", "source_url": null, "statement": "PacificSource WARN filing for 134 workers effective Dec. 31, 2026"}, {"source_name": "Oregon Employment Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oregon October county data releases November 18, 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:43.973195+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}