{"schema_version": 1, "id": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 323, "label": "OR NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "or-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:28.051795+00:00", "headline": "Rural Oregon outpaces the state while wages beat inflation.", "headline_summary": "32 of 36 Oregon counties saw unemployment fall in August even as statewide payrolls shrank, while Oregon's 4.6% wage growth continues to outrun roughly 3.4% national inflation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Counties with falling unemployment", "value": "32 of 36", "context": "August 2026, vs. statewide payroll loss of 800 jobs"}, {"label": "Oregon average weekly wage growth", "value": "4.6%", "context": "vs. ~3.4% national inflation rate"}, {"label": "Oregon WARN notices, 2026 YTD", "value": "24 notices / 2,151 workers", "context": "Six-month average down to 261 notices"}, {"label": "Oregon national payroll growth rank", "value": "48th of 50 states", "context": "12-month percentage payroll gain, BLS"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Oregon is stabilizing while the state average is not.", "body": "Unemployment fell in nearly 90% of Oregon counties in August even as statewide payrolls shrank by 800 jobs, consistent with rural areas being insulated from Portland's professional-services and information-sector contraction. This divergence matters for economic development messaging that leans on statewide figures, which understate nonmetro resilience."}, {"headline": "Care economy and hospitality, not manufacturing, are carrying local momentum.", "body": "Healthcare and social assistance added 10,900 jobs statewide over the past year while manufacturing shed 14,600 over two years, and nonmetro counties with limited factory exposure likely feel this split less acutely. Commerce leaders evaluating site location or expansion incentives should weigh which side of this divide their local employment base sits on."}, {"headline": "Wage growth is outrunning inflation locally, an uncommon position nationally.", "body": "Oregon's 4.6% average weekly wage growth compares favorably against roughly 3.4% national inflation, a gap that has reversed nationally where wage growth of 3.0% now trails inflation. This suggests nonmetro Oregon households may be gaining real purchasing power even as job creation lags, a nuance worth highlighting to press seeking a single-number read."}, {"headline": "Low layoff activity reflects calm, not strength.", "body": "Oregon's six-month WARN notice average fell to 261, and only 24 notices affecting 2,151 workers were filed statewide in 2026 \u2014 figures consistent with the 'low-hire, low-fire' pattern economists describe statewide. Civic leaders should treat this as evidence of stability rather than acceleration when framing local economic narratives."}], "local_conditions": "Oregon's nonmetropolitan counties continue to outperform the Portland-anchored statewide average, with 32 of 36 counties posting lower unemployment in August and 19 counties sitting at or below the 5.1% statewide rate, even as the state recorded its 48th-ranked payroll growth nationally over the past year. Healthcare and social assistance expansion, accommodation and food services gains of 4,900 jobs since July, and construction's 700-job August increase are offsetting continued softness in manufacturing (down 14,600 jobs statewide over two years) and professional/business services, a divergence that appears to reflect rural Oregon's lighter exposure to white-collar contraction and heavier reliance on care-economy and hospitality employment.", "implications": "Rural Oregon's relative stability versus metro Portland signals a local economy still absorbing shocks rather than expanding, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing and for economic development officials courting employers who prioritize workforce reliability over labor-cost arbitrage. The wage-vs-inflation gap \u2014 Oregon's 4.6% average weekly wage growth outpacing the roughly 3.4% national inflation read, alongside minimum wage increases to $14.55 in non-urban counties effective July 1 \u2014 suggests modest real purchasing power gains locally even as job creation stalls, a combination that supports consumer spending resilience without signaling overheating. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether healthcare and hospitality momentum broadens into other sectors before treating nonmetropolitan stability as a durable growth signal rather than a holding pattern.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Oregon's September state labor data releases October 14 and will clarify whether nonmetro counties sustained their August unemployment improvement or whether it reflected seasonal hospitality and agricultural patterns."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Federal and state government payroll trends warrant attention after Oregon's government sector cut 2,300 jobs in the prior reporting window, partly tied to early retirements; nonmetro counties with higher public-sector employment shares may feel this more directly than Portland."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing's two-year decline of 14,600 jobs statewide has not yet stabilized; any nonmetro county with concentrated manufacturing employment should be monitored for whether national tariff-related input cost pressures are a contributing factor, reported here as bare fact pending further data."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Labor force participation and employment-to-population gaps (62.6% participation vs. 59.5% employment-to-population statewide) suggest a cohort of workers remains outside employment despite available openings; whether this reflects retirement, caregiving, or discouraged-worker dynamics will matter for workforce development planning."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27879.0, "metro_p50": 33384.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28646.25, "metro_p50": 32760.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60060.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 89864.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30281.0, "metro_p50": 33632.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44212.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69124.0, "metro_p50": 87318.0, "metro_p75": 98488.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32989.0, "metro_p50": 36109.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34708.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30014.5, "metro_p50": 34122.0, "metro_p75": 37429.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39939.0, "metro_p50": 52000.0, "metro_p75": 56472.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43642.8, "metro_p75": 48500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 76440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95539.5, "metro_p50": 115960.0, "metro_p75": 124800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 115271.0, "metro_p50": 141858.0, "metro_p75": 156550.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103847.25, "metro_p50": 144516.8, "metro_p75": 152955.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58115.0, "metro_p50": 67038.0, "metro_p75": 75630.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73771.0, "metro_p50": 87826.0, "metro_p75": 91841.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53094.5, "metro_p50": 67681.0, "metro_p75": 81130.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54548.5, "metro_p50": 93626.0, "metro_p75": 112500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73495.0, "metro_p50": 84271.0, "metro_p75": 95505.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45907.0, "metro_p50": 64846.0, "metro_p75": 71959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57654.0, "metro_p50": 89520.6, "metro_p75": 110517.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 79475.2, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81023.0, "metro_p50": 92760.0, "metro_p75": 104286.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58074.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 92702.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40003.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 100000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 61926.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 76856.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 80502.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68956.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:23.996079+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/or-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}