{"schema_version": 1, "id": "omaha-council-bluffs-ne-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 375, "label": "Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA MSA", "slug": "omaha-council-bluffs-ne-ia-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:31.619135+00:00", "headline": "Omaha's tight labor market is narrowing, not just low.", "headline_summary": "Omaha-area unemployment near 2.6%-2.9% looks strong on its face, but Nebraska's labor force participation rate fell to 69.3% and job openings per unemployed worker dropped from nearly 4 to under 1.5 since 2022.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Omaha metro unemployment", "value": "2.6%-2.9%", "context": "July-Aug 2026; vs 4.1% U.S. rate"}, {"label": "Nebraska labor force participation", "value": "69.3%", "context": "Down 0.8 pts YoY, still 2nd nationally"}, {"label": "Job openings per unemployed worker", "value": "<1.5", "context": "Down from ~4 in 2022 (NE)"}, {"label": "Nebraska WARN-affected workers", "value": "1,143", "context": "Down 75% vs 2025; 6 notices total"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "Nebraska's labor force participation rate fell 0.8 percentage points year-over-year to 69.3% even as unemployment held at 2.9%, meaning the tight rate partly reflects fewer people in the labor market rather than purely robust demand. That distinction matters for any economic development pitch built on headline unemployment alone."}, {"headline": "Omaha's growth is concentrated, not broad-based.", "body": "Healthcare and social assistance (4.5% annual growth), professional/scientific/technical services (3.4%), and construction led job gains, while the Kansas City Fed reported most other private industries slowing over the summer. A commerce strategy betting on diversified momentum should account for this narrowing base."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has not fully reached Omaha wages.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest wage reading since 2021, while Nebraska's strongest wage growth clustered in information (10.6%), utilities (9.3%), and finance/insurance (7.1%). Local purchasing power in high-growth sectors appears more insulated than the national picture suggests, though broader consumer spending risk tracks the national trend."}, {"headline": "State WARN activity stayed unusually light this year.", "body": "Nebraska logged just 6 WARN notices affecting 1,143 workers through 2026, a 75% drop from 2025, with the WK Kellogg Omaha reduction (451 jobs, May) the single largest event. Low displacement activity signals limited slack entering the local talent pool, reinforcing the structural tightness read rather than a cyclical one."}], "local_conditions": "Omaha metro unemployment held near 2.6%-2.9% through July-August 2026, among the tightest readings in the nation, even as Nebraska's broader labor force participation slipped to 69.3% and the state's job openings-to-unemployed ratio fell below 1.5 from nearly 4 in 2022. Healthcare, professional/scientific/technical services, and construction continued driving employment gains locally, while a September Kansas City Fed report flagged slowing private-sector employment growth across most other industries statewide \u2014 a pattern consistent with a metro economy still expanding but doing so on a narrower set of sectors than two years ago.", "implications": "Narrowing sector breadth combined with falling labor force participation suggests the metro's low unemployment rate reflects a shrinking available workforce as much as economic strength, a distinction that matters for anyone reading the headline rate as a simple health signal. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation decisions should treat healthcare, construction, and professional services as the metro's demonstrated growth engines, while recognizing that broader labor-supply tightening may constrain how quickly any new investment can staff up locally. Consider reviewing sector-specific labor availability data, including the Nebraska Department of Labor's new Labor Availability and Hiring Needs Report, before finalizing expansion timelines tied to this metro.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Nebraska's new Labor Availability and Hiring Needs Report, released September 23, covers all eight metro counties and should offer the first detailed read on where structural labor shortages are most acute going into Q4. Commerce leaders evaluating site decisions should watch for sector-level findings beyond the topline."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Minimum wage policy shifts to a fixed 1.75% annual increase starting January 2027 instead of CPI-based adjustments, following Midwest CPI-U of 3.6%. Watch whether this becomes a visible wedge between Omaha wage growth and regional cost-of-living trends heading into next year."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August, while government employment nationally shed workers for a twelfth straight month. Public-sector stability in Omaha and Douglas County has held comparatively steady so far; any softening here would be a meaningful break from the local pattern."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Job openings-to-unemployed ratios in Nebraska have fallen from nearly 4 to under 1.5 since 2022, with healthcare and education still reporting shortages despite overall normalization. Expect continued wage pressure concentrated in those two sectors even as broader hiring activity cools."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26314.5, "metro_p50": 31720.0, "metro_p75": 34586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26028.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33626.5, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 74711.0, "metro_p75": 86213.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32362.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 46770.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35912.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58572.0, "metro_p50": 71869.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33888.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33203.0, "metro_p50": 37848.6, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27916.5, "metro_p50": 31074.0, "metro_p75": 34273.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 40252.4, "metro_p75": 44920.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34979.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56924.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 69125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82160.0, "metro_p50": 105872.0, "metro_p75": 115752.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95410.0, "metro_p50": 123034.0, "metro_p75": 145000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90709.0, "metro_p50": 117740.4, "metro_p75": 141155.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57974.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70826.5, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 92648.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51487.75, "metro_p50": 65312.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49513.5, "metro_p50": 54922.2, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83396.0, "metro_p50": 88654.0, "metro_p75": 93103.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 50211.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59904.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 108818.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75095.5, "metro_p50": 84988.4, "metro_p75": 94829.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 63633.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 79500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 90441.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 66154.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 71791.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67225.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "omaha-council-bluffs-ne-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "omaha-council-bluffs-ne-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "omaha-council-bluffs-ne-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:22.104521+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/omaha-council-bluffs-ne-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/omaha-council-bluffs-ne-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}