{"schema_version": 1, "id": "oklahoma-city-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 314, "label": "Oklahoma City, OK MSA", "slug": "oklahoma-city-ok-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:00:01.133583+00:00", "headline": "Oklahoma City restaurants gain workers as broader hiring stalls.", "headline_summary": "Statewide leisure and hospitality added 1,100 jobs in September against just 100 total nonfarm jobs, even as Oklahoma City metro unemployment climbed to 3.70% from 3.40% a year earlier.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.70%", "context": "Up from 3.40% a year earlier (Sept 2026 vs Sept 2025)"}, {"label": "Hospitality job gains, statewide", "value": "+1,100 jobs", "context": "Vs only +100 total nonfarm jobs statewide, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Full-service restaurant employment", "value": "27,100 jobs", "context": "Oklahoma City MSA, as of July 2026"}, {"label": "Oklahoma minimum/tipped wage", "value": "$7.25 / $2.13", "context": "Unchanged after SQ 832 rejected June 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Hospitality is gaining labor share in a stalling economy.", "body": "Leisure and hospitality added 1,100 jobs statewide in September against only 100 total nonfarm jobs added \u2014 restaurants are absorbing workers shed elsewhere, but metro unemployment rising to 3.70% from 3.40% suggests the labor pool is loosening for the first time in years."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule change eases cost pressure on side work.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators pay the $2.13 tipped rate for cleaning and stocking duties without the prior 20% cap, reducing direct wage obligations during slow shifts \u2014 a rare cost relief point in an otherwise tight labor market."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house wage risk is building beneath stable headline pay.", "body": "Metro Line Cook pay reads stable at $29,588, but national cook employment is projected to grow 12% through 2035 against 2% for servers, meaning current parity between FOH and BOH advertised pay may not hold as kitchen talent scarcity intensifies."}, {"headline": "Crew and entry-level pay softened even as hospitality hiring held up.", "body": "Metro Crew median fell to $24,440 (down, moderate) while Catering Manager rose to $45,648 (up, significant) \u2014 entry-level wage softening alongside management-tier gains points to employers directing retention dollars higher up the org chart, above the front line."}], "local_conditions": "Oklahoma City MSA unemployment climbed to 3.70% in September 2026, up from 3.40% a year earlier, as leisure and hospitality added 1,100 jobs statewide in September even while total nonfarm payrolls grew by just 100 \u2014 a sign the sector is pulling labor share from a stagnant overall market. Oklahoma's rejection of State Question 832 in June locked the state minimum wage at $7.25 and tipped minimum at $2.13, removing near-term wage-floor risk just as the DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule gives operators new flexibility on side-work pay.", "implications": "Flat statewide payroll growth alongside hospitality's relative gains signals restaurants are winning workers away from other sectors, but that advantage is fragile \u2014 full-service employment in the metro sits at 27.1 thousand as of July, and national data shows annual turnover near 80% against a backdrop where 70% of operators still report hard-to-fill roles. Elimination of the 80/20 rule reduces wage exposure on non-tip-producing duties for front-of-house staff, but back-of-house roles like Line Cook (metro median $29,588, stable) face structural wage pressure as BLS projects 12% cook employment growth through 2035 versus 2% for servers. Consider evaluating scheduling flexibility and non-wage retention levers for kitchen staff now, before cook wage growth outpaces the current stable trend line.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Metro unemployment has risen a full half-point year-over-year to 3.70%; watch whether this loosens the entry-level candidate pool enough to ease Crew and Server hiring difficulty without requiring wage increases."}, {"category": "Policy follow-through", "body": "With the 80/20 rule withdrawn federally and Oklahoma's $7.25/$2.13 wage floor locked in after SQ 832's defeat, monitor how quickly local operators restructure side-work scheduling to capture the tip-credit flexibility."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "BLS's 12% projected growth for cooks versus 2% for servers through 2035 suggests back-of-house wage compression is unsustainable; watch Line Cook advertised pay for early signs of movement off its current stable trend."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide payrolls are projected to grow just 0.5% in 2026 with hospitality losses offset elsewhere; confirm whether Oklahoma City's hospitality job gains in September reflect a durable local trend or a one-month deviation from that statewide softness."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24274.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34751.0, "metro_p50": 45648.0, "metro_p75": 57980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21869.0, "metro_p50": 24440.0, "metro_p75": 26500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26385.0, "metro_p50": 29588.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48067.0, "metro_p50": 55394.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25420.0, "metro_p50": 30102.0, "metro_p75": 32536.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / MacroTrends", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oklahoma City MSA unemployment rose to 3.70% in Sept 2026 from 3.40% a year earlier"}, {"source_name": "Oklahoma Employment Security Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Leisure and hospitality added 1,100 jobs statewide in September 2026 vs 100 total nonfarm jobs"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% from 2025-2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Oklahoma State Election Board", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oklahoma voters rejected State Question 832 in June 2026, keeping minimum wage at $7.25"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Full-service restaurant employment in Oklahoma City stood at 27.1 thousand as of July 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "oklahoma-city-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "oklahoma-city-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:37.829837+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oklahoma-city-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oklahoma-city-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}