Labor Market Pulse

OK NONMETROPOLITAN AREA Edition

Focus: RESTAURANT

Oklahoma nonmetro restaurants gain leverage as wage plans cool.

4.3%

Oklahoma unemployment rate

Up from 4.0% in April; above 4.1% national rate

33%+

Firms planning no 2026 raises

Up from 15% in 2023, Kansas City Fed survey

2.6%–7.0%

County unemployment spread

Dewey County low vs Love County high, May 2026

673,000

National accommodation/food job openings

Down from 916,000 in January 2026

This Month's Takeaways

01

Nonmetro wage floor stays flat as SQ 832 fails.

Oklahoma's failed minimum wage ballot measure preserves the federal floor and current tipped-wage structure, unlike Florida's move to $15.00 this month. Operators retain cost predictability but should not assume this signals broader labor market slack across all roles.

02

Catering Manager pay decline signals event-segment softness.

Metro advertised median for Catering Manager fell to $32,475, a significant decline versus a stable national figure near $51,000. This gap suggests nonmetro banquet and events demand is retreating faster than core dine-in traffic, a signal for staffing models tied to private events and seasonal bookings.

03

County-level unemployment spread demands hyper-local hiring plans.

Love County's 7.0% unemployment rate versus Dewey County's 2.6% means a single statewide staffing assumption will misfire for multi-unit operators. Labor availability and candidate quality will vary meaningfully by location even within the same nonmetro designation.

04

General Manager pay softening despite role scarcity nationally.

Metro Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell moderately to $53,500, tracking a national decline to $59,618. Softening management pay alongside flat industry job growth may suggest operators are consolidating management layers rather than competing aggressively for leadership talent.

Local Labor Conditions

Oklahoma's statewide unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in August, above the 4.1% national rate, while nonmetropolitan counties continue to show wide dispersion — from Dewey County's 2.6% to Love County's 7.0% — reflecting uneven labor demand across rural and small-town restaurant markets. Statewide restaurant sector job growth was flat to end 2025 and wage-increase intentions among Oklahoma employers have softened sharply, with over a third of firms now planning no 2026 raises, signaling demand-driven rather than labor-supply-driven staffing pressure for nonmetro operators.

Leadership & Talent Implications

Flat industry job growth combined with cooling wage-increase intent suggests nonmetro Oklahoma operators are operating in a buyer's labor market for the first time in several years, giving room to stabilize labor cost as a share of revenue rather than chase pay to fill shifts. Failure of State Question 832 removes near-term statutory wage-floor risk, but advertised pay for Catering Manager and General Manager roles is down significantly locally, suggesting softening demand in banquet/event and full-service segments rather than a broad-based talent shortage. Consider reviewing whether retention investment — scheduling stability, shift predictability — can substitute for wage increases in roles where candidate pools have genuinely loosened.

Advertised Pay Indicators

Role	P25	Median	P75	Local Trend	National	Nat. Trend
Assistant Restaurant Manager	$26,517	$32,766	$36,285	→ Stable	$39,000	↓ Moderate decline
Catering Manager	$29,120	$32,475	$32,475	↓ Significant decline	$50,960	→ Stable
Crew	$20,864	$22,880	$24,960	↓ Moderate decline	$29,839	→ Stable
Line Cook	$25,291	$28,397	$31,200	→ Stable	$36,826	→ Stable
Restaurant Manager/General Manager	$45,132	$53,500	$56,776	↓ Moderate decline	$59,618	↓ Moderate decline
Server	$23,277	$27,040	$29,946	→ Stable	$35,012	→ Stable
Shift Manager	$24,712	$27,421	$29,579	↓ Moderate decline	$32,731	→ Stable

Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days

Worth watching

Oklahoma's state unemployment rate has risen for four straight months (4.0% to 4.3%); watch whether nonmetro counties follow the same trajectory or diverge further, since that gap determines whether retention or recruiting is the higher-value lever.

Emerging pressure point

Fewer than two-thirds of Oklahoma firms now plan 2026 wage increases, down sharply from 2023 levels. If this holds through Q4, nonmetro operators may find competitive advantage in modest, targeted raises for hard-to-fill back-of-house roles while peers hold flat.

Expected

National accommodation and food services job openings have fallen from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, consistent with reduced voluntary turnover. Expect continued moderation in nonmetro Oklahoma quit rates through year-end, supporting retention-focused rather than hiring-focused budgets.

Potential inflection point

Energy sector strength (WTI near $84, rig count at 51) could tighten nonmetro labor pools in oil-adjacent counties even as statewide hospitality demand softens, creating localized wage pressure that statewide averages will mask.

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