{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 341, "label": "OK NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:30:16.336582+00:00", "headline": "Oklahoma tipped wage holds steady as nonmetro labor markets diverge.", "headline_summary": "Northeast OK Nonmetro unemployment runs at 4.9% versus 3.9% in the Northwest, even as Oklahoma's defeated $15 minimum wage measure keeps the $2.13 tipped cash wage locked in through 2026.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nonmetro unemployment spread", "value": "3.9%-4.9%", "context": "Northwest vs Northeast OK Nonmetro, May 2026"}, {"label": "National restaurant payroll growth", "value": "+59,200 jobs", "context": "Largest monthly gain since January 2023"}, {"label": "Oklahoma tipped cash wage", "value": "$2.13/hr", "context": "Unchanged after SQ 832 defeat (55.37% no)"}, {"label": "Fast casual labor cost target", "value": "28-32%", "context": "Oklahoma control metric vs 60-80% hourly churn"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tipped-wage stability is a real cost advantage right now.", "body": "With SQ 832 defeated, Oklahoma's $2.13 tipped cash wage holds steady while states like Florida push toward $15 minimum wage on September 30. FOH labor cost structure in this metro remains structurally lower than coastal and tip-credit-eliminated markets, a genuine advantage worth quantifying in any multi-state cost comparison."}, {"headline": "National hiring surge masks a local supply constraint.", "body": "Restaurant payrolls grew 59,200 nationally in August, the strongest month since early 2023, but nonmetro Oklahoma unemployment variation (3.9%-4.9%) suggests candidate availability differs meaningfully by county. Hiring plans built on national momentum may not translate evenly across Northeast versus Northwest nonmetro territory."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay for management roles is softening locally.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay sits at a metro median of $53,650, down moderately and well below the $59,762 national median, while Assistant Manager pay is down moderately too. This divergence may signal easing competition for management talent even as hourly-role churn stays high \u2014 a split worth reflecting in separate retention strategies for salaried versus hourly staff."}, {"headline": "Line cook pay stability signals BOH is the harder constraint.", "body": "Line Cook advertised pay held stable at $28,924 against a national $36,702 median, a persistent gap that may reflect limited local competition for kitchen talent rather than genuine market calm. Full-service restaurants remain 3.6% below pre-pandemic staffing nationally, and BOH turnover economics in nonmetro Oklahoma likely compound that shortfall."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetro Oklahoma labor markets show sharp regional divergence \u2014 Northeast OK Nonmetro unemployment sits at 4.9% versus 3.9% in Northwest OK Nonmetro, a gap wide enough to shape staffing feasibility county by county rather than statewide. Statewide, national restaurant payrolls grew 59,200 jobs in August, the industry's largest monthly gain since January 2023, even as nonmetro Oklahoma's broader labor market continues gradual cooling and 49% of operators nationally report softer traffic than a year ago.", "implications": "Rejection of State Question 832 locks Oklahoma's $2.13 tipped cash wage and $7.25 minimum wage in place through 2026, removing a major source of FOH labor-cost uncertainty that operators in tip-credit-elimination states like Florida do not have. Persistent 60-80% hourly churn against a 28-32% fast-casual labor-cost target means retention spending, not headcount growth, is the more defensible use of labor budget in a nonmetro market where the Northeast/Northwest unemployment gap already complicates recruiting reach. Consider reviewing whether current scheduling and cross-training practices are absorbing turnover costs efficiently enough to hold labor percentage targets without relying on continued hiring in tighter Northeast counties.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether the Northeast/Northwest OK Nonmetro unemployment gap narrows or widens over the next reporting cycle will indicate whether county-level recruiting strategies need to diverge further, particularly for multi-unit operators staffing across both zones."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National quits fell from 685,000 to 503,000 between January and July, easing turnover cost pressure industrywide \u2014 watch whether nonmetro Oklahoma's traditionally elevated 60-80% hourly churn rate shows similar cooling or stays structurally high regardless of national trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Energy-sector strength (WTI near $83.90, rig count at 51) could tighten nonmetro labor supply further if oilfield employers compete for the same hourly workforce restaurants draw from, particularly in Northeast Oklahoma counties."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Oklahoma's overall unemployment rate has risen 0.9 percentage point year over year, the second-largest state increase after Connecticut \u2014 continued softening could eventually ease hourly hiring pressure even as management-role advertised pay keeps trending down."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26729.0, "metro_p50": 32658.0, "metro_p75": 36003.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32475.0, "metro_p75": 32475.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20825.0, "metro_p50": 22982.2, "metro_p75": 24994.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25436.0, "metro_p50": 28924.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45489.0, "metro_p50": 53650.2, "metro_p75": 57264.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23502.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29652.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24676.0, "metro_p50": 27459.6, "metro_p75": 29760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:35:15.501889+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ok-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ok-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}