{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 341, "label": "OK NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:56:46.105603+00:00", "headline": "Rural Oklahoma's job gains stay concentrated \u2014 and uneven", "headline_summary": "Nonmetro counties captured just 12% of Oklahoma's job growth over the past year while county unemployment ranged from 2.1% in Dewey County to 6.4% in Hughes and Love counties.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nonmetro share of state job growth", "value": "12%", "context": "vs ~40% share of state population"}, {"label": "County unemployment range (Aug 2026)", "value": "2.1%\u20136.4%", "context": "Dewey County low vs Hughes/Love Counties high"}, {"label": "Oklahoma statewide unemployment", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Sep 2026, up from 3.6% a year earlier"}, {"label": "Rural job loss, 17-year span", "value": "-86,700 jobs", "context": "Nonmetro counties vs prior employment levels"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Oklahoma's job growth gap is widening.", "body": "Rural counties have 86,700 fewer jobs than seventeen years ago and captured only 12% of the state's job growth over the past year. That trajectory suggests nonmetro economic development efforts are competing against a structural pull toward the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metros that extends well beyond a single slow year."}, {"headline": "County unemployment variation of more than four points undercuts single-number narratives.", "body": "Hughes and Love counties post 6.4% unemployment while Dewey County sits at 2.1%. A chamber or state economist citing a single nonmetro figure risks obscuring which specific counties face real labor slack versus tight conditions."}, {"headline": "Trades pay is moving while office and management roles slip.", "body": "CDL driver, construction laborer and HVAC technician pay \u2014 measured by job ads, which track hiring demand and often cover several openings each \u2014 all show upward moderate-to-significant local movement, while warehouse manager and operations manager advertised pay are down significantly. The divergence points to physical, project-based labor demand holding up even as administrative layers soften."}, {"headline": "Graduate retention decline signals a slow leak in the talent pipeline.", "body": "Statewide, only 76.5% of Oklahoma public college graduates stayed in-state one year after graduation in 2025, down from 87% in 2023. For nonmetro counties with fewer anchor employers, that erosion compounds existing population and job-growth pressure."}], "local_conditions": "Oklahoma's nonmetro counties absorbed just 12% of the state's job growth over the past year despite holding roughly 40% of its population, leaving rural labor markets dependent on a narrower set of employers and more exposed to swings in energy, agriculture and public-sector payrolls. County-level unemployment across nonmetro Oklahoma ranges from 2.1% in Dewey County to 6.4% in Hughes and Love counties, a spread wide enough that statewide averages mask meaningfully different local conditions from one county to the next.", "implications": "Uneven county-level labor conditions mean economic development and workforce planning decisions calibrated to statewide or Oklahoma City/Tulsa data may misread what's happening on the ground in a given nonmetro county. Advertised pay gains in trades-adjacent roles \u2014 CDL drivers, construction laborers and HVAC technicians all showing upward, moderate-to-significant movement locally \u2014 suggest nonmetro demand is concentrated in physical infrastructure and logistics work tied to broader capital investment in the state. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider reviewing county-specific unemployment and wage data before drawing metro-wide conclusions about business climate or investment readiness.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Google's $3 billion Stillwater data center and Hapco's $50 million Oklahoma City facility represent capital commitments that could ripple into adjacent nonmetro labor pools for construction and logistics trades over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Initial unemployment claims statewide ticked up to 1,128 for the week ending October 3, with a four-week average of 1,082. A sustained climb would be a leading signal worth tracking against nonmetro county-level unemployment data as it updates."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Energy sector employment rose modestly (+129 jobs in August) even as statewide joblessness exceeds the national rate, a pattern tied to reported skilled-worker shortages. Nonmetro counties with energy exposure may see wage pressure concentrate in a narrow set of technical occupations."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Rejection of State Question 832 keeps Oklahoma's minimum wage at the federal $7.25 floor, leaving no near-term statutory wage floor movement. Watch whether advertised pay for entry-level nonmetro roles continues to adjust upward on its own, as it has in sectors like customer service and manufacturing production."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20547.0, "metro_p50": 24253.4, "metro_p75": 25869.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22432.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 26168.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29034.0, "metro_p50": 34453.2, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59380.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 92000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25082.0, "metro_p50": 28495.0, "metro_p75": 30735.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29594.0, "metro_p50": 35556.0, "metro_p75": 41340.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59660.0, "metro_p50": 68327.0, "metro_p75": 77926.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31057.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39206.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28974.0, "metro_p50": 34830.0, "metro_p75": 36311.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 32718.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29252.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28471.0, "metro_p50": 35176.0, "metro_p75": 38328.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55009.75, "metro_p50": 59562.4, "metro_p75": 68671.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79645.5, "metro_p50": 94350.6, "metro_p75": 103500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100496.0, "metro_p50": 137327.0, "metro_p75": 150520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84348.0, "metro_p50": 118965.0, "metro_p75": 135685.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46931.5, "metro_p50": 59079.0, "metro_p75": 64490.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66258.0, "metro_p50": 81621.0, "metro_p75": 87892.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50381.5, "metro_p50": 64970.8, "metro_p75": 74389.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44478.25, "metro_p50": 68673.0, "metro_p75": 89870.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73697.75, "metro_p50": 83854.8, "metro_p75": 88874.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29994.5, "metro_p50": 46754.0, "metro_p75": 51817.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40045.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 94503.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47714.0, "metro_p50": 54906.8, "metro_p75": 63437.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75655.5, "metro_p50": 88991.8, "metro_p75": 93442.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 52027.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 71880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57246.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 125657.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45155.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59003.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 63453.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29257.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60852.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Tulsa World", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nonmetro counties received 12% of job growth despite holding ~40% of population"}, {"source_name": "Oklahoma Employment Security Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "County unemployment range: Dewey 2.1%, Hughes/Love 6.4% (Aug 2026)"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oklahoma statewide unemployment 4.2% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Tulsa World", "source_url": null, "statement": "Rural counties have 86,700 fewer jobs than 17 years ago"}, {"source_name": "Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education", "source_url": null, "statement": "Graduate in-state retention fell from 87% (2023) to 76.5% (2025)"}, {"source_name": "State economic development reporting", "source_url": null, "statement": "Google's $3 billion Stillwater data center project"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:35.243555+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}