{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 341, "label": "OK NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:23.710630+00:00", "headline": "Rural Oklahoma's labor market splits sharply by county.", "headline_summary": "Oklahoma's nonmetropolitan counties range from 2.6% unemployment in Dewey County to 7.0% in Love County, while wages trail the national average in 73 of 74 smaller counties.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "County unemployment range", "value": "2.6%\u20137.0%", "context": "Dewey (low) vs Love County (high), May 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide unemployment", "value": "4.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, August 2026"}, {"label": "Top rural weekly wage", "value": "$1,478", "context": "Dewey County; 73 of 74 counties below US average"}, {"label": "Firms not planning wage increases", "value": ">33%", "context": "Up from 15% in 2023, Kansas City Fed survey"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetropolitan Oklahoma lacks a single unified labor story.", "body": "County unemployment rates span from 2.6% in Dewey to 7.0% in Love County, a five-point gap that dwarfs the statewide move from 4.0% to 4.3% this year. Any metro-wide narrative risks masking sharply divergent local conditions relevant to site-specific economic development decisions."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated, not broad-based, across rural counties.", "body": "Dewey County's $1,478 average weekly wage stands far above the norm in a landscape where 73 of 74 smaller counties trail the national average. This points to energy-sector concentration, not general wage strength, driving the outlier \u2014 a distinction worth confirming before citing it as a trend."}, {"headline": "Energy activity offers a steadying, not booming, signal.", "body": "WTI crude averaged $83.90 in August with the state rig count at 51, conditions described as stronger activity rather than expansion. For energy-adjacent nonmetropolitan counties, this is consistent with stabilization rather than a renewed hiring wave."}, {"headline": "Statewide wage caution is filtering down to rural employers.", "body": "Federal Reserve survey data shows over a third of Oklahoma firms do not plan 2026 wage increases, up sharply from 15% in 2023. Nonmetropolitan businesses, often with thinner margins, may be disproportionately represented in that more cautious cohort."}], "local_conditions": "Oklahoma's nonmetropolitan counties continue to operate below both state and national wage benchmarks, with wages below the national average in 73 of 74 smaller counties even as the statewide unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in August, a full percentage point above the national 4.1% rate. Nonmetropolitan labor conditions appear to track the state's broader cooling trend \u2014 gradual unemployment increases since spring 2026 alongside softening employer wage-increase intentions \u2014 rather than any distinct rural dynamic, though county-level dispersion remains wide, from 2.6% unemployment in Dewey County to 7.0% in Love County.", "implications": "Wide county-to-county variation in both unemployment and wages (Dewey County's $1,478 average weekly wage versus sub-national-average pay nearly everywhere else) suggests nonmetropolitan Oklahoma is not one labor market but many, each shaped by its dominant local industry \u2014 a relevant distinction for commerce leaders weighing where to site or expand operations. Statewide softening in wage-increase plans, with over a third of Oklahoma firms signaling no 2026 pay increases, points to constrained local purchasing power that may temper consumer-facing business momentum in these communities. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider evaluating county-level data rather than statewide averages when assessing a specific nonmetropolitan community's economic trajectory.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Love County's 7.0% unemployment rate, the state's highest as of May 2026, warrants a check for whether it reflects a one-time disruption or a persistent structural issue worth flagging to state economic development officials."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Continued claims statewide fell to 9,678 for the week ending September 5, a four-week average of 10,166 \u2014 watch whether this downward claims trend extends into nonmetropolitan counties specifically or remains concentrated in metro areas."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Rig count and WTI pricing will shape energy-dependent county wage trajectories; a pullback in either could quickly reverse the outperformance seen in counties like Dewey."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "National wage-vs-inflation divergence (3.0% wage growth against 3.4% inflation) is likely to compound in nonmetropolitan Oklahoma, where wage growth already lags national figures \u2014 a dynamic relevant to local consumer spending forecasts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20761.0, "metro_p50": 24757.0, "metro_p75": 25909.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22432.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 26006.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28828.5, "metro_p50": 33772.0, "metro_p75": 37601.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59355.0, "metro_p50": 79300.0, "metro_p75": 91884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25083.0, "metro_p50": 28612.0, "metro_p75": 30765.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29477.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59660.0, "metro_p50": 68000.0, "metro_p75": 77351.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30680.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38713.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28390.5, "metro_p50": 34832.6, "metro_p75": 36304.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24322.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 32718.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30027.0, "metro_p50": 32734.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28188.0, "metro_p50": 35297.0, "metro_p75": 38038.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54954.0, "metro_p50": 57692.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79701.5, "metro_p50": 95814.4, "metro_p75": 104817.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93376.0, "metro_p50": 120636.2, "metro_p75": 138508.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83208.0, "metro_p50": 114852.0, "metro_p75": 132782.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47906.75, "metro_p50": 59175.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65302.0, "metro_p50": 81003.6, "metro_p75": 87892.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 65010.0, "metro_p75": 76067.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44310.75, "metro_p50": 68755.0, "metro_p75": 94586.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81421.0, "metro_p50": 108373.6, "metro_p75": 111480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 47366.6, "metro_p75": 52180.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40000.0, "metro_p50": 71488.2, "metro_p75": 93842.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44124.25, "metro_p50": 48918.8, "metro_p75": 52774.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72769.5, "metro_p50": 82077.6, "metro_p75": 89550.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 52345.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70630.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34129.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58977.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 67098.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 42640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55834.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61528.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29257.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61282.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:16.364963+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ok-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}