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Labor Market Pulse
OK NONMETROPOLITAN AREA Edition
Focus: HR
Nonmetro Oklahoma cools as wage plans stall statewide.
4.3%
Oklahoma unemployment rate
Up from 4.0% in April 2026; above 4.1% national rate
35%+
Firms planning no wage increase
Up from 15% in 2023 (KC Fed survey)
7.0% vs 2.6%
County unemployment spread
Love County high vs Dewey County low, May 2026
73 of 74
Rural counties below national wage
Dewey County highest at $1,478 weekly wage
This Month's Takeaways
Rural Oklahoma wages trail the nation almost everywhere.
73 of 74 smaller counties report average wages below the national benchmark, with only Dewey County ($1,478/week) standing out on energy-sector strength. Compensation strategy outside energy and healthcare should assume a persistent structural pay gap, not a temporary lag.
Unemployment is rising everywhere, but unevenly.
Love County's 7.0% unemployment contrasts sharply with Dewey County's 2.6%, underscoring that nonmetro labor supply is not uniform across the region. Hiring plans and turnover assumptions should be localized to county-level conditions rather than treated as a single regional market.
Employer wage plans are pulling back faster than the data shows.
Kansas City Fed surveys show over a third of Oklahoma firms now expect no wage increases in 2026, up from 15% in 2023. This signals compensation budgets tightening before unemployment fully reflects the shift — a leading indicator worth tracking ahead of 2027 planning cycles.
Healthcare remains the one durable growth lane.
Education and health services are projected to add 22,310 jobs statewide through 2034, nearly all in healthcare and social assistance. Nonmetro employers outside this sector should not expect external hiring tailwinds and may need to lean more heavily on internal mobility and retention to fill critical roles.
Local Labor Conditions
Nonmetropolitan Oklahoma counties are cooling in step with the rest of the state, with every one of Oklahoma's 77 counties posting higher unemployment than a year earlier and rural wage levels sitting below the national average in 73 of 74 smaller counties. Energy-sector stability — WTI near $83.90 and a 51-rig count — is propping up pockets of demand, but statewide hiring intentions have softened sharply, with over a third of Oklahoma firms now planning no wage increases heading into 2026.
Leadership & Talent Implications
Loosening labor supply across nonmetro counties reduces the urgency behind aggressive signing bonuses and off-cycle pay adjustments, but softening wage plans among employers raise real retention risk for mid-skill and hourly workers who feel increasingly left behind. Workforce planning should pivot from headcount growth toward backfill discipline and targeted retention for roles tied to healthcare and energy, the two sectors showing structural rather than cyclical demand. Consider reviewing compensation bands for hourly and mid-skill roles specifically, where wage compression risk appears highest even as overall market tightness eases.
