{"schema_version": 1, "id": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 374, "label": "OH NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:57.602488+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Ohio's low jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Ohio's labor force participation rate (61.2%) trails the national rate (61.8%) and unemployment edged up to 3.4% in September, even as local electrician pay ($74,136) and HVAC pay ($68,713) climbed sharply on tight trades demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Ohio labor force participation", "value": "61.2%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate, declining since June 2025"}, {"label": "Ohio unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "up from 3.3% in August; still below 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Ohio manufacturing WARN impact", "value": "3,159 workers", "context": "23 of 64 statewide notices in 2026, largest sector share"}, {"label": "Real wage trend, Ohio", "value": "Negative", "context": "CPI rose to 3.7% in Sept. vs. wage growth lagging"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Ohio's labor force participation rate (61.2%) trails the national figure (61.8%) and has been declining since June 2025, even as the unemployment rate stayed near historic lows. A 3.4% jobless rate reads as strength only if the pool of available workers isn't also contracting."}, {"headline": "Technical trades are pulling away from the rest of the pay basket.", "body": "Electrician ($74,136) and HVAC Technician ($68,713) advertised pay both show significant local increases, outpacing stable-to-declining trends in office and retail roles. That divergence is consistent with sustained local demand for construction and infrastructure-adjacent skills even as consumer-facing sectors soften."}, {"headline": "Real wages are losing ground to inflation statewide.", "body": "Ohio's inflation-adjusted wages have fallen over the past year as CPI rose from 3.4% to 3.7% between August and September, squeezing household purchasing power. For a nonmetro economy weighted toward retail and services, that erosion is a more direct threat to local consumer spending than the headline jobless rate suggests."}, {"headline": "White-collar advertised pay is softening locally against a flat national trend.", "body": "Software Engineer ($125,000) and Data Engineer ($113,470) advertised pay both declined significantly in the metro even as national figures held stable, and Business Analyst and Marketing Specialist pay fell moderately too. That pattern may suggest nonmetropolitan Ohio is seeing less of the tech-investment spillover drawing attention elsewhere in the state."}], "local_conditions": "Official October figures for Ohio's nonmetropolitan areas won't post until ODJFS releases county and metro-level data on November 24, but the state's August\u2013September trajectory offers a reliable preview: Ohio's unemployment rate ticked up from 3.3% to 3.4% in September as the state shed 5,000 jobs and labor force participation slipped to 61.2%, below the 61.8% national rate. Nonmetropolitan counties, which skew older and more manufacturing-dependent than Ohio's metro cores, are likely feeling that participation erosion more acutely, compounding a labor-supply constraint that predates any single month's data.", "implications": "Shrinking labor force participation is the defining constraint on nonmetropolitan Ohio's economic capacity right now, which matters more for site-selection and expansion conversations than any single wage figure. Advertised pay for Operations Manager (up significantly, $76,066) and Electrician (up significantly, $74,136) roles locally signals employers are competing hardest where technical and supervisory skill is scarce, while broad categories like retail and food service show softening pay, consistent with thinner consumer-facing demand. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should weigh participation trends alongside unemployment headlines, since a low jobless rate paired with a shrinking labor force signals a tight market.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "ODJFS publishes October county and metro unemployment data November 24 \u2014 the first real read on whether September's statewide softening (5,000 jobs lost, participation down) extended into nonmetropolitan counties specifically."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing accounted for 23 of Ohio's 64 WARN notices and 3,159 of 7,207 affected workers in 2026, the largest share of any sector. Nonmetropolitan counties carry disproportionate manufacturing exposure, so any new filings there would signal whether the sector's statewide contraction is broadening."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Ohio's tech and data-center investment boom has been concentrated in metro corridors; watch whether any announced projects extend hiring or supplier activity into nonmetropolitan counties, which would counter the current pattern of declining local tech-role advertised pay."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Federal immigration enforcement activity and tariff policy continue to factor into national labor-force growth and manufacturing input costs. Both are documented, non-partisan variables worth tracking for their direct bearing on nonmetropolitan Ohio's manufacturing-heavy employment base, independent of how they are debated politically."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22199.0, "metro_p50": 26475.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24141.25, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37984.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 80987.2, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27539.0, "metro_p50": 32054.0, "metro_p75": 36907.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31538.5, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62847.0, "metro_p50": 74136.0, "metro_p75": 77018.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32382.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 37283.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27729.0, "metro_p50": 29952.0, "metro_p75": 31878.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32294.0, "metro_p50": 35932.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33006.25, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41873.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 68713.2, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79467.0, "metro_p50": 93137.8, "metro_p75": 105257.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96892.5, "metro_p50": 125000.0, "metro_p75": 143610.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88500.5, "metro_p50": 113470.0, "metro_p75": 122233.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57084.5, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 74034.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70599.25, "metro_p50": 85532.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45678.5, "metro_p50": 62059.0, "metro_p75": 70869.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49001.0, "metro_p50": 53471.0, "metro_p75": 63394.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73370.0, "metro_p50": 76066.0, "metro_p75": 85598.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30734.75, "metro_p50": 45150.0, "metro_p75": 49063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 86817.4, "metro_p75": 118646.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51862.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73716.0, "metro_p50": 86316.0, "metro_p75": 98344.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56506.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 67279.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61938.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66651.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52229.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 49296.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64810.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "October 2026 county/metro data release date and September state job loss figures"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio labor force participation rate at 61.2% vs. 61.8% national"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio inflation-adjusted wages fell over the past year amid CPI rise to 3.7%"}, {"source_name": "layoffdata.com", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing led Ohio 2026 WARN notices with 23 filings, 3,159 workers affected"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio unemployment rate of 3.4% in September 2026, up from 3.3% in August"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National labor force participation rate at 61.8%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:33.002528+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}