{"schema_version": 1, "id": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 374, "label": "OH NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:18.348570+00:00", "headline": "Ohio's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking labor force.", "headline_summary": "Ohio's unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in August even as the labor force shrank by 95,000 over the year, while local electrician and HVAC pay rose sharply against declining food-service and manufacturing wages.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Ohio unemployment rate", "value": "3.3%", "context": "Down from 3.4% in July; below 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force change (YoY)", "value": "-95,000", "context": "Employment up just 5,000 over same period"}, {"label": "Ohio job growth, August", "value": "+2,100", "context": "Down from 3,100/month average Jan-Aug"}, {"label": "Ohio WARN notices, trailing 90 days", "value": "3,134 workers", "context": "18 notices, led by manufacturing (23 statewide)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment may mask a shrinking labor pool, not strength.", "body": "Ohio's statewide unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in August even as the labor force shrank by 95,000 over the year, a pattern distinct from genuine hiring-driven improvement. Nonmetro counties likely share this dynamic given rural out-migration and aging demographics, making local unemployment figures alone an unreliable gauge of economic momentum."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay keeps climbing while traditional service roles slide.", "body": "Electricians ($73,861) and HVAC technicians ($67,839) show significant local wage gains, while food service workers and manufacturing assemblers see declining advertised pay. This split tracks the statewide pattern of construction and manufacturing growth tied partly to data center buildout, pointing toward where labor demand is genuinely tightening versus softening."}, {"headline": "Registered nurse pay gains outpace most other tracked occupations locally.", "body": "Metro RNs show a significant upward wage trend to $92,560, consistent with continued healthcare sector strength statewide (health services added 2,200 jobs June-July). For public-sector and commerce planning, healthcare remains one of the few reliably expanding wage categories in a slowing overall job market."}, {"headline": "Columbus-area stagnation contrasts with nonmetro trade and healthcare pockets.", "body": "Columbus lost jobs in three of six months through June while Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Dayton metros led statewide growth, suggesting nonmetro counties adjacent to stronger metro corridors may see spillover demand in construction and logistics. Commerce leaders should weigh proximity to these growth corridors when assessing local investment climate."}], "local_conditions": "Ohio's nonmetropolitan counties are riding a statewide pattern where falling unemployment reflects a shrinking labor force more than hiring strength, with Ohio losing 95,000 labor force participants year-over-year even as employment rose by only 5,000. Rural Ohio wage data points to softening in manufacturing and food service pay alongside gains in skilled trades (electricians, HVAC technicians), consistent with the statewide divergence between blue-collar demand and white-collar softness reported through August.", "implications": "Statewide labor force contraction, if mirrored in nonmetropolitan counties, signals a shrinking local consumer and worker base that commerce leaders should treat as a structural planning input, not a temporary blip tied to this hiring cycle. Diverging local pay trends \u2014 electricians and HVAC technicians up significantly while manufacturing production workers and food service pay decline \u2014 suggest the nonmetro economy is bifurcating between trades-driven demand and softer traditional retail/service footing. Current conditions suggest economic development leaders should evaluate whether local labor force participation trends track the statewide decline before using county-level unemployment improvements as a sign of underlying strength.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data release pending", "body": "Official BLS metro-level data for the OH nonmetropolitan area won't publish until after October 20, 2026. Commerce leaders should treat this month's state-level proxies as directional only and revisit county-specific unemployment and labor force figures once released."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio recorded 18 WARN notices in the past 90 days affecting 3,134 workers, concentrated in manufacturing (23 notices statewide) and transportation/logistics. Watch whether any nonmetro-adjacent facilities appear in upcoming filings, particularly given International Motors' 1,341-employee notice."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth slipping to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation signals a widening real-wage gap that could suppress consumer spending in rural retail corridors already showing declining advertised pay for cashiers and food service workers. Local chambers may want to track foot traffic and retail receipts as an early read."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Construction and manufacturing wage momentum, potentially linked to data center buildout activity in Ohio, could extend into nonmetro counties with available industrial land. Economic development corps should monitor site-selection announcements over the next 60 days for signals of rural investment spillover."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22345.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30268.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24061.0, "metro_p50": 27244.0, "metro_p75": 30425.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30863.0, "metro_p50": 36831.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60084.0, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27417.25, "metro_p50": 32029.6, "metro_p75": 35077.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31242.0, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62198.0, "metro_p50": 73861.0, "metro_p75": 76064.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31813.0, "metro_p50": 36432.0, "metro_p75": 39145.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30680.0, "metro_p50": 37431.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28419.5, "metro_p50": 29345.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32269.0, "metro_p50": 36021.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32012.0, "metro_p50": 38601.0, "metro_p75": 41797.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 67839.2, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79148.0, "metro_p50": 92560.0, "metro_p75": 104239.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93945.0, "metro_p50": 133900.0, "metro_p75": 151607.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95231.75, "metro_p50": 118973.8, "metro_p75": 136923.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56818.0, "metro_p50": 68750.0, "metro_p75": 74034.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68908.0, "metro_p50": 84165.6, "metro_p75": 90072.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43041.0, "metro_p50": 61319.0, "metro_p75": 71273.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49001.0, "metro_p50": 59470.0, "metro_p75": 67550.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73370.0, "metro_p50": 75062.0, "metro_p75": 80082.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31131.0, "metro_p50": 46225.0, "metro_p75": 49821.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57754.0, "metro_p50": 88711.0, "metro_p75": 118646.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52327.0, "metro_p50": 67000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74345.0, "metro_p50": 90031.2, "metro_p75": 104878.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55009.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 65430.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33697.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 76200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 65564.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 49296.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66076.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:14.463361+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/oh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}