{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 384, "label": "NY NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:59:26.094615+00:00", "headline": "Upstate counties may be outpacing NYC's stalled job engine.", "headline_summary": "New York State added 6,700 private sector jobs in September while New York City lost 23,000, suggesting non-metro counties are carrying the state's net momentum as trades pay -- CDL drivers at $85,713, electricians at $72,800 -- rises sharply.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "State private job growth, Sept.", "value": "+6,700", "context": "vs -23,000 in NYC same month"}, {"label": "Statewide labor force participation", "value": "61.3%", "context": "Held flat month-over-month"}, {"label": "NY minimum wage (non-NYC counties)", "value": "$16.00/hr", "context": "Jan. 2027 increase frozen on job-loss trigger"}, {"label": "Statewide WARN notices, YTD", "value": "241 / 14,602 workers", "context": "vs 339 notices, 18,311 workers all of 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Non-metro counties may be quietly outperforming the state's flagship metro.", "body": "New York State added 6,700 private sector jobs in September while New York City shed 23,000, implying counties outside the five boroughs and other metro areas carried the state's net gain. That divergence matters for regional economic development pitches built on stability, offering a counterpoint to urban-core volatility."}, {"headline": "Trades and logistics pay is rising faster than office-sector pay locally.", "body": "CDL truck driver pay ($85,713) and electrician pay ($72,800) both show significant upward movement, while software engineer and business analyst pay sit flat. Commerce leaders positioning the region for investment may find more traction emphasizing skilled-trades and transport capacity over white-collar talent availability."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are real locally, but national inflation context tempers the story.", "body": "Healthcare aide pay ($44,720) and registered nurse pay ($114,061) both rose moderately to significantly, consistent with national healthcare hiring strength. Nationally, median weekly earnings rose just 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth, suggesting even healthy local wage gains in specific roles may be outpaced by household cost pressure."}, {"headline": "Minimum wage freeze adds a policy variable to 2027 planning.", "body": "New York's January 2027 minimum wage increase was frozen after statewide nonfarm employment declined between January and July, with Gov. Hochul pledging workarounds. Non-metro employers paying at or near the $16.00 floor should watch for legislative action that could reinstate the scheduled increase on short notice."}], "local_conditions": "Rural and small-city counties across upstate New York continue to operate under different conditions than the metro core, with state-level private sector job growth of 6,700 in September reflecting resilience outside New York City even as statewide labor force participation holds flat at 61.3%. Structural labor supply constraints tied to population aging and slower in-migration to non-metro counties appear to be compounding national trends -- baby boom retirements and curbed immigration flows -- in markets where the working-age population base is already thinner than urban counterparts.", "implications": "Divergence between NYC's contraction (-23,000 private sector jobs in September) and the state's modest gain suggests non-metro counties may be absorbing a disproportionate share of New York's net private job growth this year, a signal worth tracking for economic development planning and site-selection conversations with employers considering non-metro locations. Advertised pay gains in CDL truck driving ($85,713, up significantly), electrician work ($72,800, up significantly), and manufacturing production roles ($41,248, up moderately) point to trades and logistics as the sectors carrying local wage momentum, which may create an opportunity for regional commerce leaders to position these counties as cost-competitive alternatives to metro operations. Consider reviewing county-level nonfarm employment releases from NY DOL alongside statewide figures to separate non-metro momentum from NYC-driven headline numbers that may not reflect local conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "NY DOL's not-seasonally-adjusted county employment data, released with a lag, will show whether non-metro counties' apparent September strength holds once seasonal adjustment catches up. Economic development offices should watch for revisions before citing early figures publicly."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Minimum wage freeze workarounds proposed by the Hochul administration could still reach non-metro employers before year-end, altering cost assumptions for retail, food service and home health employers paying near the $16.00 floor."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide WARN filings (241 notices, 14,602 workers through late October) remain concentrated in downstate pharmaceutical and metro-core sectors; a shift toward upstate or rural filings would mark a meaningful change in the non-metro risk picture."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National labor force participation curbs tied to immigration policy and retirements are a structural headwind; non-metro counties with older, slower-growing populations may feel labor supply constraints before metro areas do, a dynamic worth monitoring in local labor force participation data as it is released."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31636.0, "metro_p50": 33571.0, "metro_p75": 34886.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30613.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35412.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34505.0, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 85713.0, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31542.5, "metro_p50": 34299.0, "metro_p75": 38223.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 42150.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 81839.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35067.25, "metro_p50": 41248.2, "metro_p75": 46596.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35298.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42764.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33157.0, "metro_p50": 36957.2, "metro_p75": 37918.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35335.75, "metro_p50": 43973.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55368.25, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 70062.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91520.0, "metro_p50": 114060.6, "metro_p75": 124696.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 116709.5, "metro_p50": 155759.0, "metro_p75": 175000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99208.5, "metro_p50": 141989.6, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58771.0, "metro_p50": 69891.0, "metro_p75": 77802.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 94643.2, "metro_p75": 102790.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 92656.0, "metro_p75": 102599.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43418.0, "metro_p50": 57502.0, "metro_p75": 69876.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70618.0, "metro_p50": 88240.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40796.25, "metro_p50": 57851.0, "metro_p75": 64388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 119374.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44912.75, "metro_p50": 72171.6, "metro_p75": 75063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82097.0, "metro_p50": 98267.0, "metro_p75": 109265.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 81270.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 108584.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 40795.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 129886.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 120427.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 87506.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 65860.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36823.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68407.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "NYC Economic Development Corporation", "source_url": null, "statement": "NY State private sector added 6,700 jobs in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "NYC Economic Development Corporation", "source_url": null, "statement": "Statewide labor force participation rate held at 61.3%"}, {"source_name": "NYC Economic Development Corporation", "source_url": null, "statement": "NYC private sector employment fell 23,000 in September"}, {"source_name": "Washington Post", "source_url": null, "statement": "NY minimum wage freeze triggered by statewide job decline Jan-July 2026"}, {"source_name": "LayoffAlert.org", "source_url": null, "statement": "241 WARN notices covering 14,602 workers through late October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI growth, Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:21.615992+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}