{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 384, "label": "NY NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:42.989108+00:00", "headline": "Manufacturing wins land in nonmetro NY, but labor force gap remains", "headline_summary": "Danfoss and SAAB investments and an $86,500 CDL Truck Driver wage point to logistics-linked momentum, even as county unemployment still spans 3.2% to 5.2% across rural New York.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "CDL Truck Driver advertised pay", "value": "$86,500", "context": "vs $78,000 national median, up significantly"}, {"label": "County unemployment range (Aug 2026)", "value": "3.2%\u20135.2%", "context": "Saratoga low vs St. Lawrence high, NSA"}, {"label": "Rural labor force change, 2012-2022", "value": "-13,707 workers", "context": "Across 10 rural NY counties; 2,580 jobs lost"}, {"label": "NY statewide labor force participation", "value": "61.3%", "context": "Down from 61.5% in prior reading (July 2026)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Manufacturing investment is real, but labor force erosion predates it.", "body": "Danfoss, SAAB, and smaller Oswego/Onondaga expansions point to renewed site-selection interest in the Mohawk Valley and Central New York corridors. That optimism sits against a 2012-2022 baseline of 13,707 lost workers and 2,580 lost jobs across the ten rural counties \u2014 a gap that new announcements have not yet closed."}, {"headline": "Logistics pay is outrunning the region's own wage baseline.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver advertised pay at $86,500 locally outpaces the $78,000 national median by a wide margin, a divergence not mirrored in warehouse or delivery roles. This narrow but sharp signal is consistent with freight and distribution activity tied to manufacturing supply chains rather than a broad-based wage acceleration."}, {"headline": "County-level spread undercuts any single regional narrative.", "body": "Unemployment ranging from 3.2% in Saratoga to 5.2% in St. Lawrence reflects the nonmetro area's geographic fragmentation rather than one labor market. Commerce leaders evaluating site locations or policy comparisons should anchor to county-level data, not a blended nonmetro average."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wage gains offer the steadiest signal in a mixed picture.", "body": "Certified Nursing Assistant/Home Health Aide pay rose moderately to $44,720, consistent with healthcare's position as the dominant and most stable rural employment sector statewide. That stability contrasts with sharper swings in logistics and manufacturing pay, suggesting healthcare remains the structural backbone of the regional economy."}], "local_conditions": "Rural New York's structural labor force contraction continues to shape the nonmetro economy, with manufacturing investment \u2014 Danfoss in the Mohawk Valley, SAAB's new Aspen Park defense site, and expansion activity in Oswego and Onondaga counties \u2014 offering pockets of momentum against a backdrop of county unemployment ranging from 3.2% (Saratoga) to 5.2% (St. Lawrence). CDL Truck Driver pay climbed to $86,500 (up significantly, well above the $78,000 national figure), a signal consistent with continued logistics and distribution activity tied to manufacturing supply chains even as statewide labor force participation edges down from 61.5% to 61.3%.", "implications": "Divergent sector performance \u2014 manufacturing and logistics gaining ground while retail, personal services, and parts of professional services soften \u2014 suggests commerce leaders should weigh expansion decisions by sector rather than treat the nonmetro region as a single economic unit. Named-employer investments (Danfoss, SAAB, the Clay-based manufacturer's planned 25-50 person expansion) indicate site-selection confidence in regional infrastructure and workforce despite the area's decade-long labor force decline. Current conditions suggest economic development officials and chamber leaders track whether these manufacturing wins translate into measurable labor force reversal, rather than assuming investment announcements alone signal broad recovery.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS metro-level employment data for the Utica-Rome and Mohawk Valley areas releases October 20, 2026, which will offer the first real read on whether Danfoss and related manufacturing investment moved the needle on headcount."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether the Clay-area manufacturer's planned 25-50 hire expansion materializes on schedule will serve as a local bellwether for whether announced investment converts into realized payroll growth."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide local government shed 13,000 jobs outside education in September; watch whether nonmetro counties, which rely heavily on public-sector payrolls, see a proportional pullback that could offset private manufacturing gains."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Labor force participation has slipped two-tenths statewide; a continued decline in nonmetro counties would be consistent with the decade-long structural outmigration trend rather than a new cyclical softening."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31549.0, "metro_p50": 33384.0, "metro_p75": 34580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30332.5, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34249.5, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 43420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60172.0, "metro_p50": 86500.0, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31244.0, "metro_p50": 34220.0, "metro_p75": 38070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34708.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55986.0, "metro_p50": 71677.0, "metro_p75": 78562.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34136.0, "metro_p50": 40239.0, "metro_p75": 44418.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42764.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32646.75, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37918.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37853.25, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34736.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 65415.0, "metro_p75": 70487.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91331.0, "metro_p50": 113511.0, "metro_p75": 124622.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 116492.0, "metro_p50": 155052.4, "metro_p75": 174499.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99394.0, "metro_p50": 144112.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59429.0, "metro_p50": 71723.0, "metro_p75": 79596.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73984.75, "metro_p50": 96686.0, "metro_p75": 104109.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65740.25, "metro_p50": 92655.0, "metro_p75": 102599.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44843.5, "metro_p50": 58872.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53112.0, "metro_p50": 90070.0, "metro_p75": 113166.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42499.0, "metro_p50": 59282.0, "metro_p75": 64502.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62340.0, "metro_p50": 96453.6, "metro_p75": 118075.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47232.25, "metro_p50": 62774.0, "metro_p75": 75021.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82377.0, "metro_p50": 98838.6, "metro_p75": 110107.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 82500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 107597.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 41650.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 128937.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 120975.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 87011.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69310.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:34:05.619715+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ny-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}