{"schema_version": 1, "id": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 284, "label": "Niles-Benton Harbor, MI MSA", "slug": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:56.382768+00:00", "headline": "Niles unemployment falls as its labor force shrinks", "headline_summary": "Niles MSA unemployment dropped to 4.2% in September even as Michigan's statewide labor force contracted by 26,000 workers, a pattern that raises questions about whether the improving headline rate reflects economic strength or fewer available workers.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Niles MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Down from 4.8% in August 2026"}, {"label": "Michigan labor force change", "value": "-26,000", "context": "Statewide decline in September alone"}, {"label": "Michigan labor force participation", "value": "58.5%", "context": "vs 61.8% U.S. national rate"}, {"label": "CNA/Home Health Aide advertised pay", "value": "Up significantly", "context": "Metro median $40,474, trending up"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lower unemployment reflects a smaller labor force, not more jobs.", "body": "Niles MSA's drop to 4.2% unemployment in September tracks a statewide pattern where Michigan's labor force shrank by 26,000 in a single month and 158,000 over the year. A shrinking denominator, not business expansion, appears to be driving the improved headline rate."}, {"headline": "Caregiving-sector pay signals a demand story worth tracking.", "body": "Advertised pay for certified nursing assistants and home health aides rose significantly this month, consistent with national healthcare hiring strength even as Michigan's broader private education and health services sector lost 4,000 jobs in September. The divergence suggests direct-care roles are moving independently of the broader health sector's softness."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's local dominance carries a long-term caution flag.", "body": "Manufacturing remains Niles MSA's largest sector at 13,370 jobs, but Michigan's 10-year outlook projects manufacturing to shed more jobs than any other sector statewide through 2034. Commerce leaders planning around the metro's industrial base should weigh this structural headwind against current stability."}, {"headline": "Real wages are falling even where nominal pay looks stable.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth in Q3, and most advertised-pay categories in the Niles metro show flat or stable trends rather than gains that would offset inflation. Flat local pay in categories like retail and administrative work translates into a real decline in household purchasing power, a factor relevant to consumer spending projections for area businesses."}], "local_conditions": "Niles MSA unemployment fell to 4.2% in September, a 0.6-point improvement from August, even as Michigan's labor force contracted by 26,000 statewide and labor force participation slipped to 58.5%, consistent with the national pattern of fewer workers entering or remaining in the labor pool rather than job loss. Manufacturing remains the metro's anchor sector at 13,370 jobs, trailed by health care and social assistance, with advertised pay for certified nursing assistants and home health aides up significantly this month, pointing to sustained demand in caregiving roles even as statewide services employment softened in the third quarter.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside a shrinking labor force is a supply story, not a demand story, and it means the metro's apparent tightening may mask fewer available workers rather than a surge in business activity worth celebrating uncritically. For commerce leaders weighing expansion, this points to realistic planning around workforce availability constraints in a county where health care wage pressure is already building and manufacturing continues to anchor employment; government economists tracking participation should note Berrien County's trajectory mirrors the state's structural contraction rather than diverging from it. Local economic development organizations may want to evaluate whether participation-rate trends, not headline unemployment, offer the more reliable read on business climate heading into 2027.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Berrien County's labor force stabilizes or continues contracting when October figures post; a continued decline would confirm the metro's low unemployment rate is a participation story rather than an improving jobs market."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan's 10-year outlook flags manufacturing as the sector projected to lose the most jobs statewide; local economic development leaders should track whether any Berrien County manufacturers signal capacity changes in coming WARN filings or earnings reports."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Health care pay pressure, visible in the significant rise for nursing assistant and home health aide roles, may intensify if statewide private education and health services job losses persist, creating a mismatch between wage costs and sector employment trends worth monitoring for public-sector budget planning."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National data show immigration-related labor force curbs and baby boom retirements slowing workforce growth structurally; metro and state economists should watch whether Berrien County's participation rate diverges from or tracks this national trend over the next two reporting cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22776.0, "metro_p50": 27734.8, "metro_p75": 30638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26430.25, "metro_p50": 30638.0, "metro_p75": 32861.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32195.0, "metro_p50": 35100.0, "metro_p75": 36207.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 75790.0, "metro_p75": 84000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30411.0, "metro_p50": 34077.0, "metro_p75": 37380.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37960.0, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 39050.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62168.0, "metro_p50": 69551.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32893.0, "metro_p50": 37258.2, "metro_p75": 53000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45136.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28690.0, "metro_p50": 31249.0, "metro_p75": 31249.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 40474.0, "metro_p75": 46758.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31275.0, "metro_p50": 37096.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59846.0, "metro_p50": 67406.0, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80653.0, "metro_p50": 95069.0, "metro_p75": 101712.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103430.5, "metro_p50": 142663.2, "metro_p75": 173177.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136328.0, "metro_p75": 154349.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60418.5, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66915.25, "metro_p50": 84431.0, "metro_p75": 84432.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 64051.8, "metro_p75": 70331.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 58020.0, "metro_p75": 69000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 75349.0, "metro_p75": 92183.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40182.0, "metro_p50": 54635.0, "metro_p75": 58638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 88262.8, "metro_p75": 100526.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 92496.0, "metro_p75": 105164.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 32757.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 65574.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53222.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 48821.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 42865.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32224.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66370.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Michigan Department of Career Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Niles MSA unemployment rate was 4.2% in September 2026, down from 4.8% in August"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data & Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan's labor force declined by 26,000 during September"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data & Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan labor force participation rate fell to 58.5%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "U.S. labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data & Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing projected to shed most jobs in Michigan through 2034"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI gain in Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:12.769414+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}