{"schema_version": 1, "id": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 284, "label": "Niles-Benton Harbor, MI MSA", "slug": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:40.567728+00:00", "headline": "Niles unemployment looks stable \u2014 but fewer residents are working.", "headline_summary": "Berrien County's jobless rate held near 4.2-4.3% in September even as the labor force shrank 7.6% year-over-year, while manufacturing pay softened against stable national figures.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Berrien County unemployment rate", "value": "4.3%", "context": "vs 4.5% in August, 4.2% MSA-wide"}, {"label": "Labor force change, year-over-year", "value": "-7.6%", "context": "71,500 in labor force, down from prior year"}, {"label": "Michigan unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "0.9 pts above national 4.1% rate"}, {"label": "Manufacturing production worker pay", "value": "$35,867 (down, moderate)", "context": "vs national $39,520, stable"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment, falling labor force \u2014 same story, less reassuring.", "body": "Berrien County's labor force dropped 7.6% year-over-year while unemployment held near 4.2-4.3%, meaning the stable rate reflects fewer residents in the workforce rather than robust job creation. Economic development and workforce planning conversations should weight participation trends as heavily as the unemployment headline."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness here tracks the state, not the nation.", "body": "Metro manufacturing production worker pay fell moderately even as the national figure held stable, consistent with Michigan's statewide manufacturing contraction (-2,000 jobs in August) outpacing the modest national manufacturing job gains reported for September. A metro built on a 13,000-plus manufacturing base remains more exposed to this divergence than peer metros with lighter industrial concentration."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades are the metro's quiet bright spot.", "body": "Registered nurse, CNA, electrician, and HVAC advertised pay all rose this month, mirroring the national pattern of healthcare and hands-on trades outpacing white-collar and administrative roles. This is consistent with non-cyclical sector growth projected statewide (+19,500 jobs in 2026) offsetting cyclical losses in manufacturing and construction."}, {"headline": "Administrative and financial-role pay declines may flag office-sector contraction.", "body": "Administrative assistant pay fell significantly locally while rising nationally, and accountant and financial analyst pay also declined \u2014 a local divergence from national softness-but-not-decline in these roles. Commerce leaders assessing office-based business investment locally should treat this as a signal worth tracking, not yet a confirmed trend."}], "local_conditions": "Niles-Benton Harbor's unemployment rate held at 4.2% in September, near a year-long low, even as the MSA's labor force contracted 7.6% year-over-year and employed residents fell 5,500 \u2014 a pattern consistent with workers leaving the labor force rather than losing jobs outright. Manufacturing, the metro's largest sector at roughly 13,400 workers, continues to soften in line with statewide losses, while advertised pay for production workers fell moderately, suggesting demand cooling faster locally than the stable national manufacturing wage trend would imply.", "implications": "Shrinking labor force participation alongside a steady unemployment rate complicates any straightforward reading of local economic health \u2014 a low jobless rate here reflects fewer people counted as seeking work, not necessarily a tight, thriving labor market, which matters for how commerce leaders pitch workforce availability to prospective employers or investors. Divergence between rising advertised pay in healthcare and skilled trades (CNAs up, HVAC and electricians up) and falling pay in manufacturing, administrative, and logistics roles points to a metro economy bifurcating along the same white-collar/blue-collar lines seen nationally. Current conditions suggest economic development messaging should distinguish between sector-specific strength and metro-wide participation trends rather than citing the headline unemployment rate alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Berrien County's labor force continues contracting into Q4; a third consecutive month of decline would reinforce a structural participation story rather than a one-month anomaly."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan's minimum wage rises to $15.00 on January 1, 2027 \u2014 retail, food service, and hospitality employers locally will begin adjusting pay structures in the final months of 2026, a dynamic worth tracking for consumer-facing sector cost pressure."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide manufacturing WARN activity (33 notices, 3,720 workers in 2026) has not yet produced a major Niles-area filing, but the metro's manufacturing concentration makes it a plausible candidate if the statewide trend continues."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National job postings data turned positive year-over-year for the first time in nearly four years; whether that national inflection reaches a manufacturing-heavy, participation-declining metro like Niles-Benton Harbor is an open and consequential question for local business investment decisions."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23381.0, "metro_p50": 27918.6, "metro_p75": 30638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26286.0, "metro_p50": 29696.4, "metro_p75": 31726.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31488.0, "metro_p50": 34564.4, "metro_p75": 36073.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 82827.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29967.0, "metro_p50": 33446.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37960.0, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 38815.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61527.0, "metro_p50": 69285.0, "metro_p75": 76511.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31647.0, "metro_p50": 35867.2, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33513.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41949.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28690.0, "metro_p50": 31249.0, "metro_p75": 31249.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39661.0, "metro_p75": 43360.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31230.0, "metro_p50": 36804.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59846.0, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 72280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80953.0, "metro_p50": 94604.4, "metro_p75": 103968.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101761.0, "metro_p50": 128716.6, "metro_p75": 150254.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 139608.0, "metro_p75": 157543.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 69000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 84431.0, "metro_p75": 84432.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 62363.0, "metro_p75": 71957.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 58389.0, "metro_p75": 69093.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61250.0, "metro_p50": 81693.0, "metro_p75": 90662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40914.0, "metro_p50": 55040.0, "metro_p75": 58762.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 81801.4, "metro_p75": 93083.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48388.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 80378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79295.0, "metro_p50": 89025.2, "metro_p75": 129051.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 48459.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 32688.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 55617.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 46927.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 40268.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31793.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66626.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:58.299937+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/niles-benton-harbor-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}