{"schema_version": 1, "id": "nh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 333, "label": "NH NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "nh-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:29.866131+00:00", "headline": "NH jobs grow, but paychecks lose ground to inflation.", "headline_summary": "New Hampshire employment rose 1.1% through July 2026 and unemployment fell to 2.8%, yet wage growth lagged inflation enough to cut worker purchasing power by 1.6% versus 2025.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "NH unemployment rate", "value": "2.8%", "context": "vs 3.2% average in 2025; 5th lowest nationally"}, {"label": "NH wage vs. inflation gap", "value": "-1.6%", "context": "Purchasing power loss, Jan-Jul 2026 vs 2025"}, {"label": "NH nonfarm employment growth", "value": "1.1%", "context": "vs 0.2% national growth, Jan-Jul 2026"}, {"label": "Ongoing unemployment claims", "value": "+23%", "context": "vs same period two years prior"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Headline job growth masks a purchasing-power squeeze.", "body": "State employment grew 1.1% January-July 2026, outpacing the 0.2% national rate, but wage growth lagged inflation enough to erode purchasing power by an estimated 1.6% versus 2025. Local consumer spending capacity may be softer than the employment headline implies."}, {"headline": "Small businesses, not large employers, are carrying job growth.", "body": "Firms under 20 employees generated most of New Hampshire's net job gains in 2025, a pattern likely continuing into nonmetro counties where large corporate expansions are rare. Economic development strategy may get more traction supporting existing small firms than recruiting large relocations."}, {"headline": "Younger workers are leaving faster than the labor force is growing.", "body": "Labor force participation among ages 20-34 declined even as the overall labor force expanded, with older workers filling the gap. This demographic tilt raises longer-term questions about workforce sustainability for nonmetro employers in health care, skilled trades, and public-sector roles."}, {"headline": "Sector divergence is a diversification risk, not just a data point.", "body": "Health care and social assistance keeps expanding while manufacturing, retail, and wholesale trade contract, concentrating the nonmetro area's growth in fewer industries. Commerce leaders may want to track whether this narrowing continues, since a less diversified base is more exposed to sector-specific shocks."}], "local_conditions": "New Hampshire's nonfarm employment rose 1.1% through the first seven months of 2026 and statewide unemployment held near 2.8%, among the lowest readings nationally, with health care and social assistance driving most of the gains while manufacturing, retail, and wholesale trade continued to contract. Rural and nonmetropolitan counties are absorbing this growth unevenly, as small businesses under 20 employees generated most net job creation statewide even as wage growth lagged inflation by roughly 1.6 percentage points, pointing to a tight labor market that is not translating into proportional purchasing power gains for workers.", "implications": "Low unemployment paired with wage growth trailing inflation suggests nonmetro New Hampshire's labor market is tight on supply but soft on real income growth, a combination that can constrain discretionary consumer spending even as headline job numbers look strong. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment should weigh that local labor availability remains constrained by demographic outmigration among workers 20-34, while government economists should note that participation gains are concentrated among older workers, a structural rather than cyclical shift. Consider reviewing locally advertised pay trends in sectors like health care and skilled trades, where metro figures (Registered Nurse up significant, HVAC Technician up significant) suggest genuine competitive pressure rather than broad-based wage inflation.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Ongoing unemployment claims statewide ran 23% above the comparable period two years ago despite falling headline unemployment, suggesting pockets of prolonged joblessness. Watch whether this gap widens or narrows in nonmetro counties over the next two reporting cycles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wage growth in several nonmetro-relevant advertised roles (Registered Nurse, HVAC Technician, CDL Truck Driver) is rising faster than metro-wide averages, concentrated in health care and skilled trades. Persistent divergence here may signal localized capacity constraints worth tracking for infrastructure and health-system planning."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August, and real wages nationally are no longer outpacing inflation. If this national cooling persists, it typically reaches small-state, small-business-driven economies like New Hampshire's nonmetro areas with a lag."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "New Hampshire was the only New England state with labor force growth over the past 12 months, a comparative advantage tied partly to affordability relative to Massachusetts. Whether that differential holds, narrows, or widens will shape in-migration patterns commerce leaders should monitor into early 2027."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27566.0, "metro_p50": 33029.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28988.5, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33169.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57670.0, "metro_p50": 73535.0, "metro_p75": 85136.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32824.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36637.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 44885.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58439.0, "metro_p50": 76276.0, "metro_p75": 83892.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35380.0, "metro_p50": 42952.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33614.0, "metro_p50": 38148.2, "metro_p75": 40180.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31874.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36920.0, "metro_p50": 45142.0, "metro_p75": 48754.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37021.0, "metro_p50": 45468.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62986.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91395.0, "metro_p50": 112916.2, "metro_p75": 123760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 133764.0, "metro_p50": 163092.2, "metro_p75": 173517.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104572.0, "metro_p50": 136488.0, "metro_p75": 152156.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 67652.8, "metro_p75": 74419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75326.0, "metro_p50": 94199.6, "metro_p75": 114852.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63114.25, "metro_p50": 78300.0, "metro_p75": 93500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48304.5, "metro_p50": 72897.6, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39864.0, "metro_p50": 57200.0, "metro_p75": 65968.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 90408.0, "metro_p75": 110979.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81664.0, "metro_p50": 97866.0, "metro_p75": 105620.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 91016.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38074.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 40722.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 140791.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 77220.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 75250.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 78114.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34990.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 58354.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "nh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "nh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "nh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:56.511464+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nh-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}