{"schema_version": 1, "id": "new-york-northern-new-jersey-long-island-ny-nj-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 6, "label": "New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA", "slug": "new-york-northern-new-jersey-long-island-ny-nj-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:36.050900+00:00", "headline": "New York metro job growth narrows to one sector: healthcare.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment holds at a preliminary 4.3% even as New Jersey's broader economy \u2014 outside education and health services \u2014 posted an aggregate 24,000-job decline over the past year, with statewide unemployment forecast to climb toward 5.2%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.3%", "context": "July 2026 preliminary, BLS"}, {"label": "NJ unemployment forecast", "value": "5.2%", "context": "Projected by 2027-28 vs 4.3% now"}, {"label": "NJ non-healthcare job change", "value": "-24,000", "context": "12 months through Apr 2026, ex-education/health"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4% CPI", "context": "Wages trailing inflation, weakest since 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro stability is a headline, not a diagnosis.", "body": "The 4.3% metro unemployment rate looks steady, but New Jersey's own economists project a climb toward 5.2% as the healthcare-driven gains that have carried the region cool. Commerce leaders should treat the current reading as a lagging snapshot rather than a forward signal."}, {"headline": "Healthcare is doing the heavy lifting, and that's a concentration risk.", "body": "Nearly all of New Jersey's 12-month job gains trace to education and health services, while the remaining private sectors posted an aggregate decline of roughly 24,000 jobs. A metro economy this dependent on one sector's momentum is more fragile than the topline numbers suggest."}, {"headline": "Wage growth is losing ground to inflation nationally, a signal for local spending power.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% year-over-year against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. If that pattern holds locally, consumer purchasing power \u2014 and the retail and hospitality demand tied to it \u2014 faces a real headwind regardless of local job counts."}, {"headline": "Professional services softness is the metro's quiet warning sign.", "body": "New Jersey's professional and business services sector lost 3,400 jobs even as healthcare expanded, and financial activities has shed jobs nationally since a May 2025 peak. Economic development leaders tracking office-dependent commercial corridors should watch this sector before assuming broad commercial recovery."}], "local_conditions": "New York metro employment held near 9,977,000 through July with the unemployment rate at a preliminary 4.3%, even as New Jersey \u2014 a core component of the metro economy \u2014 shed 1,700 payroll jobs in August and posted a statewide rate of 4.3% that state forecasters expect to drift toward 5.2% over the next two years. Health care and education continue to carry regional job growth almost single-handedly, masking softness in professional and business services, financial activities, and trade/transportation that points to an uneven, two-speed recovery across the metro's commercial base.", "implications": "Concentration of job growth in healthcare and education, alongside continued softness in professional/business services and financial activities, signals a metro economy expanding unevenly rather than broadly \u2014 a distinction that matters for anyone assessing whether now is a favorable window for local business investment or expansion. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection, retail footprint, or service-sector investment should weigh that the metro's headline stability is propped up by a narrow set of sectors, not broad-based demand. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level job postings data over the next quarter before treating overall metro stability as a green light across all business lines.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "BLS publishes official September metro-level employment and unemployment figures on October 28 \u2014 the first hard confirmation of whether the metro's July/August trends held, worsened, or reversed."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "New Jersey's unemployment trajectory is forecast to climb toward 5.2% over the next two years per Rutgers' State Policy Lab, nearly a full point above the national rate; watch whether this shows up first in trade, transportation, or leisure/hospitality postings."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Slowing international in-migration tied to tighter border enforcement is expected to weigh on New Jersey's labor force growth; commerce leaders dependent on population-driven consumer demand should track labor force participation alongside payroll counts, not instead of them."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has fallen below inflation for the first time in two years; if that gap persists through Q4, expect visible effects on local discretionary retail and hospitality activity heading into the holiday season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37950.0, "metro_p75": 41558.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32600.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 37483.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35022.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 80727.0, "metro_p75": 87890.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33304.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 40353.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 44698.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 78811.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35358.5, "metro_p50": 41274.0, "metro_p75": 45943.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43131.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32587.0, "metro_p50": 36753.0, "metro_p75": 39295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38129.0, "metro_p50": 44356.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39266.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 55380.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67016.0, "metro_p50": 76921.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94554.5, "metro_p50": 115398.0, "metro_p75": 125632.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 127283.75, "metro_p50": 166475.0, "metro_p75": 183500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 102461.0, "metro_p50": 136570.0, "metro_p75": 158857.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64690.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90105.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77829.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 107047.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 78575.8, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49264.0, "metro_p50": 68636.0, "metro_p75": 79781.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 95263.4, "metro_p75": 119514.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 65781.0, "metro_p75": 76874.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69680.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 120000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54672.5, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 99469.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84780.0, "metro_p50": 103337.0, "metro_p75": 116307.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 83000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 113871.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 49400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 120570.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 125836.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 90000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69210.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 75143.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "new-york-northern-new-jersey-long-island-ny-nj-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "new-york-northern-new-jersey-long-island-ny-nj-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "new-york-northern-new-jersey-long-island-ny-nj-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:54.743295+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/new-york-northern-new-jersey-long-island-ny-nj-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/new-york-northern-new-jersey-long-island-ny-nj-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}