Metro Job Market Pulse
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA Edition
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New York metro job growth narrows to one sector: healthcare.
4.3%
Metro unemployment rate
July 2026 preliminary, BLS
5.2%
NJ unemployment forecast
Projected by 2027-28 vs 4.3% now
-24,000
NJ non-healthcare job change
12 months through Apr 2026, ex-education/health
3.0% vs 3.4% CPI
National real wage growth
Wages trailing inflation, weakest since 2021
This Month's Takeaways
01
Metro stability is a headline, not a diagnosis.
The 4.3% metro unemployment rate looks steady, but New Jersey's own economists project a climb toward 5.2% as the healthcare-driven gains that have carried the region cool. Commerce leaders should treat the current reading as a lagging snapshot rather than a forward signal.
02
Healthcare is doing the heavy lifting, and that's a concentration risk.
Nearly all of New Jersey's 12-month job gains trace to education and health services, while the remaining private sectors posted an aggregate decline of roughly 24,000 jobs. A metro economy this dependent on one sector's momentum is more fragile than the topline numbers suggest.
03
Wage growth is losing ground to inflation nationally, a signal for local spending power.
National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% year-over-year against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. If that pattern holds locally, consumer purchasing power — and the retail and hospitality demand tied to it — faces a real headwind regardless of local job counts.
04
Professional services softness is the metro's quiet warning sign.
New Jersey's professional and business services sector lost 3,400 jobs even as healthcare expanded, and financial activities has shed jobs nationally since a May 2025 peak. Economic development leaders tracking office-dependent commercial corridors should watch this sector before assuming broad commercial recovery.
Local Economic Conditions
New York metro employment held near 9,977,000 through July with the unemployment rate at a preliminary 4.3%, even as New Jersey — a core component of the metro economy — shed 1,700 payroll jobs in August and posted a statewide rate of 4.3% that state forecasters expect to drift toward 5.2% over the next two years. Health care and education continue to carry regional job growth almost single-handedly, masking softness in professional and business services, financial activities, and trade/transportation that points to an uneven, two-speed recovery across the metro's commercial base.
Open Threads in the Data
Concentration of job growth in healthcare and education, alongside continued softness in professional/business services and financial activities, signals a metro economy expanding unevenly rather than broadly — a distinction that matters for anyone assessing whether now is a favorable window for local business investment or expansion. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection, retail footprint, or service-sector investment should weigh that the metro's headline stability is propped up by a narrow set of sectors, not broad-based demand. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level job postings data over the next quarter before treating overall metro stability as a green light across all business lines.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$37,950 |
→ Stable |
64,438 |
| Retail Cashier |
$35,880 |
→ Stable |
20,554 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$39,520 |
→ Stable |
14,347 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$80,727 |
↑ Significant increase |
39,296 |
| Delivery Driver |
$35,360 |
↓ Moderate decline |
52,470 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$75,000 |
↓ Significant decline |
23 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$44,698 |
→ Stable |
1,367 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$72,800 |
↑ Significant increase |
7,181 |
| HVAC Technician |
$76,921 |
↑ Moderate increase |
2,591 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$41,274 |
↓ Moderate decline |
6,031 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$43,131 |
→ Stable |
17,786 |
| Operations Manager |
$95,263 |
↑ Moderate increase |
152 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$36,753 |
→ Stable |
3,697 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$44,356 |
→ Stable |
53,785 |
| Registered Nurse |
$115,398 |
↑ Moderate increase |
93,479 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$48,880 |
→ Stable |
27,435 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$166,475 |
↑ Moderate increase |
45,356 |
| Data Engineer |
$136,570 |
→ Stable |
21,191 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$80,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
24,204 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$78,576 |
↑ Significant increase |
4,597 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$68,636 |
→ Stable |
3,805 |
| Business Analyst |
$103,337 |
→ Stable |
20,121 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$100,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
7,168 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$65,781 |
↑ Significant increase |
106,325 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$100,000 |
↑ Significant increase |
27,375 |
Industry Snapshot · New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +8.2% |
↑ +33.0% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +14.4% |
↑ +31.5% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +4.1% |
↑ +7.6% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
→ +3.0% |
↑ +24.9% |
| Information |
↑ +15.1% |
↑ +3.5% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +13.6% |
↑ +22.0% |
| Professional & Business Services |
→ +1.6% |
↑ +12.8% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +9.5% |
→ +2.7% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ −0.9% |
↑ +14.7% |
| Government |
↑ +18.1% |
→ +0.7% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Expected data release
BLS publishes official September metro-level employment and unemployment figures on October 28 — the first hard confirmation of whether the metro's July/August trends held, worsened, or reversed.
Emerging pressure point
New Jersey's unemployment trajectory is forecast to climb toward 5.2% over the next two years per Rutgers' State Policy Lab, nearly a full point above the national rate; watch whether this shows up first in trade, transportation, or leisure/hospitality postings.
Worth watching
Slowing international in-migration tied to tighter border enforcement is expected to weigh on New Jersey's labor force growth; commerce leaders dependent on population-driven consumer demand should track labor force participation alongside payroll counts, not instead of them.
Potential inflection point
National wage growth has fallen below inflation for the first time in two years; if that gap persists through Q4, expect visible effects on local discretionary retail and hospitality activity heading into the holiday season.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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