{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 376, "label": "NE NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:54:41.748601+00:00", "headline": "Manager pay slides as Nebraska's labor pool keeps shrinking.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay in this metro has fallen to $56,854, nearly $3,000 below the national median, even as Nebraska's labor force shrank by roughly 7,800 workers year-over-year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nebraska unemployment rate", "value": "2.9%", "context": "vs 4.2% national rate, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Nebraska labor force change", "value": "-7,800", "context": "year-over-year through September 2026"}, {"label": "Local GM/Manager advertised pay", "value": "$56,854", "context": "down moderately, vs $59,724 national"}, {"label": "Nebraska minimum wage", "value": "$15.00/hr", "context": "tipped cash wage frozen at $2.13/hr"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is sliding while frontline wages hold firm.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay sits at $56,854 locally, down moderately and nearly $3,000 below the national median, while Crew and Server pay remain stable. Narrowing spread between management and hourly compensation may weaken the business case for promoting from within."}, {"headline": "Youth wage carve-out lowers cost of seasonal back-of-house hiring.", "body": "LB258's $13.50/hour rate for 14- and 15-year-olds, a $1.50 discount off the standard $15 minimum, gives operators a lever to cut labor costs on dishpit and prep roles during fall and holiday staffing swings. Expect sharper use of this tier where teen labor supply allows."}, {"headline": "Tipped wage gap leaves servers exposed to demand swings.", "body": "Cash wage remains $2.13 against a $15.00 full minimum, one of the widest spreads nationally, meaning server earnings stability depends entirely on guest traffic and check averages. Slower winter covers could translate directly into take-home pay volatility and turnover risk among front-of-house staff."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager compensation signals a cooling specialty segment.", "body": "Local advertised pay for Catering Manager has fallen significantly to $32,450, over $17,000 below the national median, suggesting demand for off-premise and event dining has softened relative to core restaurant operations. Operators relying on catering revenue may need to reassess staffing models for that line of business."}], "local_conditions": "Nebraska's 2.9% unemployment rate against a 4.2% national rate keeps nonmetro restaurant operators competing for a shrinking labor pool \u2014 the state labor force contracted by roughly 7,800 workers year-over-year through September even as leisure and hospitality employment grew 2.4%. Minimum wage at $15.00/hour, a tipped cash wage frozen at $2.13, and a new $13.50/hour youth training rate under LB258 are reshaping the cost calculus for front-of-house and back-of-house staffing heading into the fall hiring push.", "implications": "Advertised pay for Restaurant Manager/GM ($56,854) and Assistant Manager ($35,500) roles in this metro trail national medians by meaningful margins and both carry a declining trend, which may signal operators pulling back on management compensation even as frontline wages hold flat under the $15 floor minimum. That combination compresses the pay gap between management and hourly staff, a dynamic that complicates promotion pipelines and retention for shift leads weighing the jump into salaried roles. Consider reviewing manager-to-crew pay differentials locally, since a shrinking spread may be undercutting the incentive to advance, independent of underlying demand for management talent.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy deadline", "body": "Nebraska's Department of Labor must publish the 2027 minimum wage rate by October 15, reflecting the new 1.75% fixed annual increase. Operators should model labor cost scenarios now, ahead of the formal notice."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force contraction of nearly 7,800 workers year-over-year suggests the nonmetro candidate pool is shrinking even as hospitality employment grows, a mismatch that could intensify competition for back-of-house hires through the holiday season."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Federal elimination of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule gives operators more flexibility to assign side work without triggering full minimum wage obligations. Watch whether Nebraska issues state-level guidance that diverges from the federal stance, since state wage law still governs tipped minimums here."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Catering Manager pay's sharp local decline may be an early signal of softening event and off-premise demand ahead of the holiday catering season. Track booking volumes against staffing levels before locking in seasonal schedules."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28888.0, "metro_p50": 35500.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28341.0, "metro_p50": 32449.8, "metro_p75": 36472.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24528.0, "metro_p50": 26396.0, "metro_p75": 30698.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49877.0, "metro_p50": 56854.0, "metro_p75": 59972.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26874.0, "metro_p50": 33072.0, "metro_p75": 34976.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28442.0, "metro_p50": 31475.0, "metro_p75": 32306.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Nebraska DOL", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska unemployment rate 2.9% vs national 4.2% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Nebraska Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska labor force declined year-over-year through September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Nebraska Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Leisure and hospitality employment grew 2.4% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Nebraska Legislature", "source_url": null, "statement": "LB258 sets $13.50/hour youth training wage effective July 17, 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Nebraska Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska minimum wage shifts to fixed 1.75% annual increases starting 2027"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:02.152000+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ne-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ne-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}