{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 376, "label": "NE NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:58.437596+00:00", "headline": "Nebraska's workforce shrinks even as unemployment stays low.", "headline_summary": "Nebraska's labor force fell nearly 7,800 people year-over-year to 1,095,378 even as unemployment held at 2.9%, while construction employment rose 7.4% and manufacturing sits just 1% above 2020 levels.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nebraska labor force change", "value": "-7,800", "context": "Year-over-year, Sept 2025 to Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Nebraska unemployment rate", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Unchanged from August; vs 4.2% national (Sept)"}, {"label": "Construction/mining employment growth", "value": "+7.4%", "context": "Year-over-year, leads all tracked sectors"}, {"label": "Manufacturing vs. 2020 employment level", "value": "+1%", "context": "vs construction's +20% over same period"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Nebraska's labor force fell by nearly 7,800 people year-over-year even as unemployment held near 2.9%, meaning the tight-looking number reflects fewer people working and seeking work amid limited job creation. That distinction matters for any public narrative built on the headline unemployment rate alone."}, {"headline": "Construction is the standout, and its labor crunch is real.", "body": "Construction and mining employment grew 7.4% over the year, the fastest of any tracked sector, while 88% of area construction firms report hourly craft roles as hard or harder to fill than a year ago. Advertised construction laborer and electrician pay are both up locally, consistent with employers competing for a limited pool amid modest headcount growth."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing has not recovered its pre-2020 footprint.", "body": "Statewide manufacturing employment sits just 1% above 2020 levels even as construction runs 20% above, pointing to uneven goods-producing recovery that tariff uncertainty and trade exposure have likely reinforced through 2025 and 2026. Commerce leaders courting manufacturing investment should weigh this stagnation against the area's stronger construction and healthcare trajectories."}, {"headline": "Health care and education offer the metro's steadiest growth.", "body": "Private education and health services employment rose 2.2% over the year, a pace that tracks national healthcare hiring strength and offers a more stable anchor for local economic planning than cyclical goods-producing sectors. Certified nursing assistant and registered nurse advertised pay both rose locally, reinforcing this as a sector where demand signals and wage trends align."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetropolitan Nebraska's labor market shows stable unemployment alongside measurable workforce contraction, with the statewide labor force down nearly 7,800 people year-over-year even as the jobless rate held at 2.9% in September. Rural sectors show divergent momentum: construction and mining employment rose 7.4% over the year, private education and health services gained 2.2%, while manufacturing employment remains just 1% above 2020 levels, consistent with reduced immigration-driven population growth and persistent trade-exposed sector softness.", "implications": "Workforce shrinkage despite low unemployment signals a participation constraint, which reshapes expansion math for commerce leaders weighing new investment: available local labor may not scale with new facility or program announcements regardless of posted wages. Construction's continued strength, paired with AGC survey findings that 87% of local firms report open hourly craft positions, suggests capacity constraints could slow project timelines tied to public infrastructure or economic development initiatives. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials should factor both labor force availability and wage levels into any public messaging or planning around local business expansion.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Nebraska's October state employment data publishes November 20 and metro-level BLS figures for this nonmetro area follow December 2, giving the first real read on whether September's labor force contraction deepened or stabilized."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction firms reporting difficulty filling hourly craft roles, combined with rising advertised pay for electricians and construction laborers, suggests capacity constraints that could delay public infrastructure or private development timelines announced locally this quarter."}, {"category": "Policy to watch, non-partisan", "body": "Federal immigration enforcement activity and reduced immigration flows have been identified as a structural driver of Nebraska's slowing working-age population growth; any shift in federal policy posture is a fact pattern worth tracking for its effect on rural labor supply, independent of political framing."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Nebraska's new state-level WARN Act, effective July 18, 2026, requires 90-day notice for mass layoffs at firms with 100+ employees, a lower threshold than federal law. Watch whether any notices surface locally over the next two months as an early signal of sector-specific distress."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23473.0, "metro_p50": 27517.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25202.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32791.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32334.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60693.0, "metro_p50": 82032.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26926.0, "metro_p50": 30415.0, "metro_p75": 33268.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42536.0, "metro_p75": 46368.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59991.25, "metro_p50": 72232.0, "metro_p75": 80080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36592.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49192.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32290.0, "metro_p50": 35528.0, "metro_p75": 38348.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29749.0, "metro_p50": 34312.4, "metro_p75": 36213.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 43254.0, "metro_p75": 44620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33602.0, "metro_p50": 38783.6, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53681.0, "metro_p50": 65346.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84240.0, "metro_p50": 110768.4, "metro_p75": 120263.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106831.25, "metro_p50": 130479.6, "metro_p75": 146874.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97664.5, "metro_p50": 120930.0, "metro_p75": 137031.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52341.0, "metro_p50": 62585.8, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72418.25, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 102268.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46599.0, "metro_p50": 55774.0, "metro_p75": 65540.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47888.0, "metro_p50": 56026.6, "metro_p75": 67279.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78078.0, "metro_p50": 83396.0, "metro_p75": 88654.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 43056.0, "metro_p75": 52851.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63286.0, "metro_p50": 92500.0, "metro_p75": 100191.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78284.0, "metro_p50": 94004.0, "metro_p75": 100609.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 46930.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 74597.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 41484.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 51033.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 109729.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 78129.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 71806.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62230.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64202.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska labor force fell to 1,095,378 in September, down from 1,103,170 a year earlier"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska unemployment rate 2.9% in September, sixth-lowest nationally"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction/mining employment up 7.4% year-over-year, construction 20% above 2020 vs manufacturing 1%"}, {"source_name": "Associated General Contractors / NCCER", "source_url": null, "statement": "87% of construction firms report open hourly craft positions, 88% say harder to fill than a year ago"}, {"source_name": "Nebraska Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska state-level WARN Act effective July 18, 2026 requires 90-day notice for 100+ employee layoffs"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "October Nebraska state employment data scheduled for release November 20, 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:27:01.784256+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}