{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 376, "label": "NE NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:24.502005+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Nebraska's low unemployment masks a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Nebraska's nonmetro unemployment holds near historic lows at 2.9%, but labor force participation has fallen 0.8 points year-over-year and openings per unemployed worker have dropped from nearly 4 to under 1.5 since 2022.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nebraska unemployment rate", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Unchanged from July 2026 and from August 2025"}, {"label": "Labor force participation", "value": "69.3%", "context": "Down from 69.4% prior month, 0.8pt YoY decline"}, {"label": "Openings-to-unemployed ratio", "value": "<1.5", "context": "Down from nearly 4.0 in 2022"}, {"label": "National September payroll growth", "value": "29,000 jobs", "context": "Well below 45,000 12-month average"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Nebraska's tight labor market is a supply story, not a boom.", "body": "Participation fell to 69.3% even as unemployment sits near historic lows, and the openings-to-unemployed ratio has collapsed from nearly 4 to under 1.5 since 2022. Low unemployment here reflects fewer available workers more than surging demand."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and construction pay gains outpace the metro's white-collar categories.", "body": "Manufacturing production/assembler pay rose significantly and construction labor pay rose moderately locally, while HR generalist pay fell significantly and business analyst pay fell moderately. Divergence points to localized goods-sector strength against softer administrative and professional-services demand."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wage growth looks structural, not a one-month blip.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly both locally ($110,656) and nationally, tracking a statewide pattern where healthcare and social assistance led job growth by percentage (4.5% year-over-year). Persistent shortages in healthcare and education, noted by state workforce data, suggest this pressure continues regardless of broader cooling."}, {"headline": "National payroll deceleration has not yet shown up in nonmetro Nebraska's numbers.", "body": "National September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs with downward revisions to prior months, while Nebraska's unemployment held flat at 2.9% through August. Local data lag means this metro's economy may be cooling in ways not yet visible in the available releases."}], "local_conditions": "Nebraska's nonmetropolitan labor market is tracking the statewide pattern of historically low unemployment alongside clear structural cooling: the 2.9% August rate holds near record lows even as labor force participation slipped to 69.3% and the job openings-to-unemployed ratio fell to fewer than 1.5, down from nearly 4 in 2022. Sector momentum in this metro appears concentrated in manufacturing production (advertised pay up significantly), construction, and warehouse/fulfillment roles, consistent with statewide gains in healthcare, professional services, and utilities while white-collar administrative and HR-adjacent categories show local pay declines.", "implications": "Rural and nonmetro Nebraska's tight labor supply \u2014 fewer than 1.5 openings per unemployed worker and falling participation \u2014 suggests capacity constraints are now a demand-side story as much as a hiring story, meaning local expansion plans may face real execution limits regardless of balance-sheet readiness. Commerce leaders evaluating local investment or facility decisions should weigh that manufacturing and construction wages are rising locally even as white-collar categories like HR, business analysis, and customer service soften, pointing to a bifurcated local economy rather than a uniformly tight or loose one. Consider reviewing which sectors in the local basket show genuine pay momentum versus stagnation before assuming broad-based economic heat.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Reporting gap", "body": "Official BLS metro-level data for this nonmetropolitan area has not yet been published for September and typically lags by several months. Commerce leaders relying on real-time reads should treat current figures as a June\u2013August baseline, not a live signal."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Labor force participation has declined 0.8 percentage points year-over-year even as the state ranks 2nd nationally on this measure. Watch whether rural outmigration or retirement-driven exits accelerate, which would tighten the labor supply further regardless of local demand conditions."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "Nebraska's minimum wage rises to $15.26 on January 1, 2027, with future increases locked to a fixed 1.75% annual rate rather than CPI, a change from the 2022 ballot measure. This is a bare fact relevant to cost planning for retail, food service, and hospitality employers in the local basket, independent of any partisan framing."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Nebraska's new state WARN Act (effective July 17, 2026) requires 90-day notice for layoffs affecting 100+ workers, a lower threshold for transparency than federal law. Watch whether any nonmetro-area notices surface in coming months as an early signal of localized sector stress."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23624.0, "metro_p50": 27860.4, "metro_p75": 32659.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25172.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32393.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57067.0, "metro_p50": 77015.2, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27136.0, "metro_p50": 30956.0, "metro_p75": 33832.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34341.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59993.0, "metro_p50": 71869.0, "metro_p75": 80080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32207.0, "metro_p50": 35528.0, "metro_p75": 38217.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29585.0, "metro_p50": 33610.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36237.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 44395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33362.0, "metro_p50": 38339.0, "metro_p75": 41520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 63281.0, "metro_p75": 68000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84111.0, "metro_p50": 110656.0, "metro_p75": 120068.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111819.0, "metro_p50": 136015.0, "metro_p75": 157665.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94231.0, "metro_p50": 132338.0, "metro_p75": 139767.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52338.25, "metro_p50": 61055.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 100291.0, "metro_p75": 112530.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46599.0, "metro_p50": 51872.2, "metro_p75": 64716.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50400.0, "metro_p50": 63760.0, "metro_p75": 68539.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78793.0, "metro_p50": 88654.0, "metro_p75": 92980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 46654.0, "metro_p75": 53947.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72250.0, "metro_p50": 94511.0, "metro_p75": 105559.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79905.0, "metro_p50": 94004.0, "metro_p75": 100289.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 46885.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 81440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 43812.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 123878.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 80570.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 69424.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62179.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65034.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:49.006003+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ne-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}