{"schema_version": 1, "id": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 268, "label": "ND NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:34:53.880413+00:00", "headline": "Rural ND labor pool shrinks while crew pay drifts down.", "headline_summary": "North Dakota's rural labor force has contracted by roughly 1,400 workers over the past year, yet local Crew pay fell to a $29,120 median even as the state's estimated living wage sits near $20.61/hour.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "ND statewide unemployment", "value": "2.1%", "context": "vs 4.1% U.S. rate, unchanged from August"}, {"label": "Rural labor force change", "value": "-1,400 workers", "context": "Past 12 months, per Job Service ND"}, {"label": "Counties facing hiring shortages", "value": "38 of 53", "context": "Food service among hardest roles to fill"}, {"label": "Living wage vs. statutory minimum", "value": "$20.61/hr vs $7.25/hr", "context": "ND minimum unchanged since 2009"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Crew wages are falling just as the labor pool shrinks.", "body": "Metro Crew pay is down moderately to $29,120 even as Job Service ND reports a roughly 1,400-worker labor force contraction over the past year. Falling advertised pay into a tightening supply picture risks under-pricing retention right as competition for hourly staff intensifies."}, {"headline": "Manager pay is diverging sharply from hourly roles.", "body": "Assistant Restaurant Manager pay rose significantly to a $47,131 local median \u2014 well above the $39,000 national figure \u2014 while Shift Manager and Crew pay both moved down. This widening gap suggests operators are prioritizing management continuity over frontline retention, a strategy that may backfire if turnover concentrates at the hourly level."}, {"headline": "Statutory wage floor is increasingly disconnected from market reality.", "body": "North Dakota's $7.25 minimum and $4.86 tipped cash wage haven't moved, but the estimated $20.61/hour living wage shows advertised rates are doing the real work of hiring. Operators relying on statutory minimums as a reference point are likely mispricing roles against actual local competition."}, {"headline": "Rural staffing shortages may be structural, not seasonal.", "body": "38 of North Dakota's 53 counties report difficulty filling food-service openings, tied to retirements and a declining pool of international and teen workers rather than cyclical demand swings. Seasonal staffing plans built around past-year assumptions may understate how persistent these shortages have become."}], "local_conditions": "North Dakota's nonmetropolitan counties face a labor force contraction of roughly 1,400 workers over the past year, driven by retirements, fewer available international workers, and declining teen labor participation \u2014 a demographic squeeze landing hardest on food service, which Job Service ND flags among the toughest categories to fill across 38 of 53 counties. Statewide unemployment sits at 2.1% against a 69.2% labor force participation rate, meaning rural restaurant operators are competing for a shrinking, already fully-employed candidate pool rather than drawing from sidelined workers.", "implications": "Crew pay in this market has moved down moderately to a $29,120 median even as the state's estimated living wage sits near $20.61/hour, implying advertised rates may be settling below what retention actually requires in a county-level labor force that's shrinking, not loosening. With Assistant Manager pay up significantly to $47,131 locally against a $39,000 national median, operators appear to be concentrating compensation investment in management retention while leaving hourly FOH/BOH roles exposed to turnover risk. Current conditions suggest revisiting whether entry-level and crew-level advertised rates reflect local labor scarcity rather than last year's softer demand signals.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "North Dakota's statewide labor force has contracted by about 1,400 workers over the past year with no clear reversal signal. Watch whether rural restaurant vacancy rates worsen heading into the winter slow season or stabilize as competition for scarce labor eases."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Neighboring states continue raising wage floors and tipped minimums while North Dakota's remain unchanged at $7.25/$4.86. Track whether this gap pulls workers toward border communities and higher-wage states, intensifying recruitment difficulty in nonmetropolitan counties."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Cass County, the state's largest employment center, saw employment decline 1% year-over-year with wage growth trailing the national average. If this spending softness extends into nonmetro counties, watch for operators pulling back on hours before cutting advertised pay rates."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National accommodation and food service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, suggesting easing competition for workers elsewhere. Monitor whether this national cooling reaches nonmetropolitan North Dakota or whether local scarcity keeps this market an outlier."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37960.0, "metro_p50": 47131.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 59991.0, "metro_p75": 60320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25162.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31323.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 56957.0, "metro_p75": 74100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30013.0, "metro_p50": 35546.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27849.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33876.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:47.533048+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nd-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nd-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}