{"schema_version": 1, "id": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 268, "label": "ND NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:10.088672+00:00", "headline": "Trades wages surge as workforce shrinks behind record-low unemployment.", "headline_summary": "North Dakota's nonmetropolitan unemployment sits at a historic 2.2%, but labor force participation slipped to 69.3% from 69.9% a year ago even as HVAC and electrician advertised pay posted significant local gains.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nonmetro unemployment rate", "value": "2.2%", "context": "Unchanged month-over-month; near national low"}, {"label": "Labor force participation (NSA)", "value": "69.3%", "context": "Down from 69.9% a year earlier"}, {"label": "Statewide open positions", "value": "12,435", "context": "3,737 in healthcare alone"}, {"label": "Average hourly earnings growth", "value": "0.1% YoY", "context": "Vs. 4.1% national average hourly earnings growth"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Participation decline undercuts the low-unemployment headline.", "body": "Not-seasonally-adjusted labor force participation fell to 69.3% from 69.9% year-over-year even as unemployment held near record lows, indicating the tight market reflects a shrinking labor pool. That distinction matters for any economic development pitch built on workforce depth."}, {"headline": "Trades wages are pulling away from the rest of the pay structure.", "body": "Electrician ($85,280), HVAC technician ($91,520), and manufacturing production ($47,000) advertised pay all show significant local gains, outpacing national trends in the same roles, while statewide average hourly earnings grew only 0.1% year-over-year. Wage pressure in this economy is narrow and trade-specific."}, {"headline": "Healthcare vacancies dominate the opening count without matching wage movement.", "body": "Healthcare accounts for 3,737 of 12,435 statewide open positions, measured by job ads, which track demand and often cover several openings each, yet registered nurse advertised pay ($85,852) trails the national median by roughly $16,000. A persistent gap of this size is consistent with recruitment difficulty that pay alone has not closed."}, {"headline": "Government payrolls are contracting while private employers add workers.", "body": "Private-sector employment grew 1,800 jobs year-over-year in September while government employment shed 600, a divergence worth tracking for public-sector service capacity in rural counties already reporting acute shortages. Public-sector stability, a traditional anchor in nonmetro economies, looks less assured than the statewide unemployment rate implies."}], "local_conditions": "North Dakota's nonmetropolitan labor market remains historically tight at 2.2% seasonally adjusted unemployment, yet the labor force contracted 0.2% year-over-year and not-seasonally-adjusted participation slipped to 69.3% from 69.9% a year earlier, pointing to a shrinking available workforce even as demand holds steady. Advertised pay in this metro shows sharp divergence by trade \u2014 electrician, HVAC technician, and manufacturing production roles posting significant local gains well above national pay trends \u2014 while average hourly earnings statewide rose just 0.1% year-over-year, a sign that wage pressure is concentrated in specific trades.", "implications": "Concentrated wage strength in construction trades, HVAC, and manufacturing against a backdrop of flat overall wage growth suggests the local economy is rewarding scarce technical skill far faster than it is lifting pay broadly \u2014 a pattern commerce leaders should read as capacity-constrained growth. With participation declining and healthcare carrying 3,737 of the state's 12,435 open positions, expansion plans in trades-dependent or healthcare-adjacent sectors face a labor-supply ceiling that pay alone may not solve. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluating local investment or expansion should weigh trade and healthcare labor availability as seriously as cost, and track whether the new Department of Workforce Development yields measurable participation gains before year-end.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the new Department of Workforce Development, led by Katie Ralston Howe, publishes participation or placement metrics in the next two reporting cycles \u2014 early output will signal whether the state's policy response is gaining traction against the 12,000-plus open-position backlog."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "38 of 53 counties already report acute labor shortages; any additional softening in labor force participation over the next 60 days would widen the gap between posted openings and available workers in rural trades and allied health."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "County-level wage data (next release includes September specifics) will show whether trade-driven pay gains in construction and manufacturing are spreading to adjacent counties or remaining concentrated in a handful of high-growth areas like Cass and Burleigh."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage-versus-CPI divergence (1.5% earnings growth against 3.5% inflation) has not yet shown up as broad local wage stagnation outside healthcare and administrative roles \u2014 a shift here would pressure household spending power across the metro's retail and service base."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24035.0, "metro_p50": 30047.0, "metro_p75": 33800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26591.25, "metro_p50": 30564.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64480.0, "metro_p50": 84000.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29217.0, "metro_p50": 33517.0, "metro_p75": 35386.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36479.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64778.0, "metro_p50": 85280.0, "metro_p75": 114400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40021.0, "metro_p50": 47000.0, "metro_p75": 49000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30296.0, "metro_p50": 33919.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29895.0, "metro_p50": 37523.0, "metro_p75": 37523.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34588.0, "metro_p50": 36466.0, "metro_p75": 41890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63504.5, "metro_p50": 91520.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73806.0, "metro_p50": 85852.0, "metro_p75": 104000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95763.5, "metro_p50": 118627.4, "metro_p75": 131076.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75038.0, "metro_p50": 118965.0, "metro_p75": 147416.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57430.25, "metro_p50": 65257.6, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73055.5, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 94455.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51942.0, "metro_p50": 68673.0, "metro_p75": 75994.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48730.25, "metro_p50": 63367.2, "metro_p75": 82396.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77001.25, "metro_p50": 91033.6, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34176.0, "metro_p50": 50637.0, "metro_p75": 58354.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64255.75, "metro_p50": 86992.0, "metro_p75": 91586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73462.0, "metro_p50": 86426.0, "metro_p75": 90839.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60936.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 81910.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38407.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53614.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 68529.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54687.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 72083.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 85582.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32194.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67133.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Job Service North Dakota", "source_url": null, "statement": "ND nonmetro unemployment at 2.2%, labor force down 0.2% YoY"}, {"source_name": "Job Service North Dakota", "source_url": null, "statement": "Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% year-over-year statewide"}, {"source_name": "Job Service North Dakota Online Job Openings Report", "source_url": null, "statement": "Healthcare accounts for 3,737 of 12,435 statewide open positions"}, {"source_name": "Job Service North Dakota", "source_url": null, "statement": "Private employment grew 1,800 jobs YoY while government shed 600"}, {"source_name": "Office of Governor Kelly Armstrong", "source_url": null, "statement": "Governor Armstrong created Department of Workforce Development led by Katie Ralston Howe"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National average hourly earnings rose 4.1% year-over-year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "nd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:59.286129+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}