{"schema_version": 1, "id": "nc-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 290, "label": "NC NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "nc-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:14.720195+00:00", "headline": "Rural North Carolina's labor market diverges sharply from metro headlines.", "headline_summary": "While North Carolina posts a 3.5% statewide unemployment rate and ranks 5th nationally in job growth, nonmetro counties face a shrinking labor force (participation at 57.8%, down 1.6 points year-over-year) and manufacturing-driven pay softness, with local manufacturing pay down to $35,360 against a stable national figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "Down 1.6 pts YoY, tied for 45th nationally"}, {"label": "NC civilian labor force", "value": "-70,000", "context": "Year-over-year decline statewide"}, {"label": "Manufacturing WARN notices", "value": "34 of 61", "context": "3,444 of 5,753 workers affected statewide in 2026"}, {"label": "NC unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Vs 4.1% national rate, Aug 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Statewide job growth numbers mask a metro-nonmetro divide.", "body": "North Carolina ranks 5th nationally in 12-month payroll gains, but August's sector gains clustered in Leisure/Hospitality, Construction, and Professional & Business Services, categories more concentrated in metro areas. Nonmetro counties, more reliant on manufacturing (the state's largest net job loser) and agriculture, likely see a materially different trajectory than the statewide headline suggests."}, {"headline": "Labor force contraction is a supply story, not a demand story.", "body": "North Carolina's civilian labor force shrank by over 7,000 in August and nearly 70,000 over the year, with participation at 57.8%, down 1.6 points year-over-year. For nonmetro counties already facing slower population growth, this points to a shrinking available workforce rather than weak local business activity."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and warehouse pay softness signals uneven local demand.", "body": "Manufacturing production worker pay in this metro fell moderately to $35,360 and warehouse manager pay dropped significantly to $59,000, both diverging from stable national figures. That gap is consistent with the sector-specific contraction showing up in statewide WARN filings, where manufacturing accounts for 34 of 61 notices and 3,444 of 5,753 affected workers this year."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades remain the bright spot in an otherwise uneven picture.", "body": "Electrician ($64,480) and HVAC technician ($64,191) advertised pay both rose significantly locally, tracking national gains and suggesting continued demand for licensed trades tied to construction and infrastructure work. That contrasts with declines across retail, food service, and manufacturing roles, reinforcing a bifurcated local economy rather than broad-based cooling."}], "local_conditions": "North Carolina's nonmetropolitan counties operate under the same statewide forces reshaping the labor market this month: a labor force that contracted by more than 7,000 workers in August and nearly 70,000 over the year, consistent with the state's declining labor force participation rate, which fell to 57.8%, tied for 45th nationally. Rural counties carry disproportionate exposure to two of the state's weakest sectors \u2014 manufacturing, the state's largest net job loser, and construction and agriculture, where declines in foreign-born labor have hit hardest outside metro cores, even as statewide job growth (10,000 in August, 65,600 over 12 months) remains concentrated in metro leisure/hospitality and professional services.", "implications": "Statewide labor force contraction combined with rural overexposure to manufacturing and construction softness suggests nonmetro counties face a tighter and more volatile labor supply picture than North Carolina's metro-led headline numbers imply \u2014 relevant for any public investment, workforce development, or site-selection conversation framed around statewide job growth. Advertised pay data showing declines in manufacturing production ($35,360, down moderate) and warehouse management ($59,000, down significant) locally, against stable or rising national figures, is consistent with softer blue-collar demand outside metro cores rather than a uniform statewide trend. Commerce leaders evaluating business-climate narratives for site selection or regional marketing should consider presenting nonmetro conditions separately from statewide averages, given how much of North Carolina's reported momentum is metro-concentrated.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "State-level September unemployment data releases October 20; watch whether nonmetro counties diverge from the statewide 3.5% rate given their heavier manufacturing and agriculture exposure."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "13 WARN notices filed statewide in the last 90 days affected 1,336 workers, concentrated in manufacturing, transportation/logistics, and healthcare \u2014 sectors with outsized nonmetro footprints. Continued filings would further strain already-shrinking rural labor pools."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Construction and agriculture labor shortages tied to shifts in foreign-born workforce availability are a documented statewide pressure; nonmetro counties with agricultural bases are likely to feel this first and most acutely."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% annually, below 3.4% inflation, marking the first sustained real-wage decline in two years. Whether nonmetro North Carolina wages, already trailing national medians across most tracked roles, follow this national softening will shape rural consumer spending capacity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21865.0, "metro_p50": 26186.0, "metro_p75": 29294.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22568.0, "metro_p50": 25137.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29918.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54956.0, "metro_p50": 76313.0, "metro_p75": 86400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26889.0, "metro_p50": 30628.0, "metro_p75": 32286.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 38808.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53806.0, "metro_p50": 64480.0, "metro_p75": 70105.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30836.25, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30420.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37907.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27029.0, "metro_p50": 30879.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31427.0, "metro_p50": 35515.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30860.0, "metro_p50": 38493.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56289.5, "metro_p50": 64191.0, "metro_p75": 72566.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 96991.4, "metro_p75": 104366.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 112500.0, "metro_p50": 142105.0, "metro_p75": 162000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94573.0, "metro_p50": 115598.0, "metro_p75": 132791.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53448.75, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 68062.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68628.75, "metro_p50": 79587.2, "metro_p75": 87684.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53659.0, "metro_p50": 65972.0, "metro_p75": 75750.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47608.0, "metro_p50": 61500.0, "metro_p75": 70125.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69306.25, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 88648.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33654.75, "metro_p50": 49531.0, "metro_p75": 54963.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59918.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 102533.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78281.0, "metro_p50": 89018.2, "metro_p75": 97437.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55107.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 74535.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34319.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48861.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 83530.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51467.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 63340.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61724.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29995.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65516.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "nc-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "nc-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "nc-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:45.698178+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nc-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/nc-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}