Metro Job Market Pulse
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA Edition
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Nashville keeps outrunning the state it's in.
3.1%
Metro unemployment rate
Up from 3.0% in July, still below 4.2% national
28,000+ jobs
12-month metro job growth
Vs. statewide 2026 projection of just 31,400 jobs
6.6% YoY
Davidson County wage growth
Highest among major TN counties, vs. 3.0% national
76/100
Skilled-trades scarcity index
Tight; wage growth 7-9% YoY in constrained trades
This Month's Takeaways
01
Nashville is decoupling from Tennessee's statewide slowdown.
Statewide job growth has cooled to roughly 0.9% projected for 2026, yet Nashville added over 28,000 jobs in the past year and continues to outpace Memphis and other Tennessee metros. That divergence strengthens the metro's relative investment case even as state-level headlines turn cautious.
02
Skilled-trades scarcity is now a visible constraint on local capacity.
Tennessee's trades scarcity index sits at a tight 76/100 with wage pressure running 7-9% annually in constrained trades, a signal that construction and infrastructure timelines locally may face real friction. Electrician pay is up significantly in the metro, consistent with sustained demand outstripping available capacity rather than a temporary spike.
03
A scheduled TikTok office closure is a small, isolated event, not a trend.
The Oct. 5 closure affecting roughly 250 Davidson County workers appears driven by company-specific restructuring rather than any broader Nashville tech retrenchment, given the metro's continued hiring momentum elsewhere. Watch whether displaced talent is absorbed quickly, which would itself be a useful read on local labor market depth.
04
Local wage-inflation dynamics look healthier than the national picture.
Davidson County posted the strongest wage growth among major Tennessee counties at 6.6% year over year, well above the 3.0% national wage growth figure that is now trailing inflation. That gap matters for reading local consumer purchasing power and retail/hospitality spending resilience even as national commentary turns more cautious.
Local Economic Conditions
Nashville's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.1% in August from 3.0% in July, still far below the national 4.2%, as the metro's 28,000-job annual gain reflects continued momentum in healthcare, hospitality and tech expansion anchored by projects like Oracle's $1.2 billion campus. Skilled-trades scarcity remains acute — the WIL Institute Observatory index reads 76/100 for Tennessee — even as statewide job growth decelerates sharply from its historical 60,000-per-year pace to a projected 31,400 for 2026.
Open Threads in the Data
Nashville's continued outperformance of both state and national job growth figures signals the metro retains real expansion capacity even as Tennessee overall cools, a distinction worth sharpening in any regional economic messaging to site-selection consultants or relocating employers. Acute skilled-trades scarcity alongside stable unemployment suggests the binding constraint on local commercial activity is increasingly labor supply in construction and trades rather than demand — a dynamic that matters directly for permitting timelines, infrastructure projects and commercial build-out schedules. Commerce leaders should consider whether workforce-pipeline investments in trades training track with the metro's construction and manufacturing growth trajectory, not just its tech headlines.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$31,536 |
→ Stable |
10,852 |
| Retail Cashier |
$30,160 |
→ Stable |
3,610 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$37,960 |
→ Stable |
3,847 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$75,400 |
→ Stable |
16,337 |
| Delivery Driver |
$35,000 |
→ Stable |
6,804 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$74,528 |
↓ Moderate decline |
10 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$40,504 |
→ Stable |
655 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$68,931 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,904 |
| HVAC Technician |
$67,712 |
↓ Moderate decline |
762 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$38,052 |
→ Stable |
929 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$39,518 |
→ Stable |
2,673 |
| Operations Manager |
$87,538 |
↑ Significant increase |
26 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$34,045 |
↓ Moderate decline |
361 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$37,440 |
↑ Moderate increase |
3,846 |
| Registered Nurse |
$94,718 |
↑ Significant increase |
26,315 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$43,680 |
→ Stable |
2,679 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$151,000 |
→ Stable |
2,554 |
| Data Engineer |
$140,521 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,215 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$70,000 |
→ Stable |
2,085 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$63,070 |
↑ Moderate increase |
599 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$65,947 |
↑ Moderate increase |
318 |
| Business Analyst |
$96,897 |
→ Stable |
984 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$89,418 |
→ Stable |
1,073 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$52,880 |
↑ Significant increase |
12,205 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$90,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
2,532 |
Industry Snapshot · Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +5.7% |
↑ +16.7% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +10.7% |
↑ +14.8% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +7.4% |
↑ +10.4% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↑ +11.7% |
↑ +25.5% |
| Information |
↑ +20.8% |
↑ +20.2% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +17.8% |
↑ +16.3% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +9.3% |
↓ −4.8% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +10.2% |
→ +2.6% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ +1.1% |
↑ +5.9% |
| Government |
↑ +26.2% |
→ −0.1% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Expected
TikTok's Nashville office closure takes effect Oct. 5, affecting roughly 250 workers. The more informative data point will be how quickly that talent is reabsorbed locally, a read on depth of metro tech/professional-services demand.
Emerging pressure point
Skilled-trades scarcity (76/100 on the regional observatory index) shows no sign of easing, with wage growth of 7-9% in constrained trades. Construction timelines tied to the metro's continued growth narrative are worth watching for slippage tied to crew-formation limits.
Potential inflection point
National nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to the prior two months, well below Nashville's own trajectory. Watch whether that national cooling begins to show up in metro-level job postings data over the next reporting cycle, or whether Nashville continues to diverge.
Worth watching
Tennessee WARN filings have reached nearly 6,000 affected workers statewide this year, concentrated in manufacturing and transportation/logistics. Limited Nashville-specific WARN activity to date is a positive signal, but statewide manufacturing softness bears monitoring given the metro's own manufacturing base of roughly 88,800 workers.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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