{"schema_version": 1, "id": "napa-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 366, "label": "Napa, CA MSA", "slug": "napa-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:53:50.028150+00:00", "headline": "Napa unemployment holds near five-year lows as state lags.", "headline_summary": "Napa's 4.2% unemployment rate continues to outperform California's 5.1% statewide figure, even as vineyard-sector WARN filings and a 1,300-job farm employment dip underscore the county's agriculture-driven volatility.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Napa MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "vs. 5.1% statewide, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Napa labor force", "value": "74,300", "context": "71,200 employed, 3,100 unemployed, Oct. 2026"}, {"label": "Vineyard-sector WARN filing", "value": "91 workers", "context": "Renteria Vineyard Management, effective Oct. 15"}, {"label": "Farm employment change", "value": "-1,300 jobs", "context": "July to August 2026, offset by +600 nonfarm"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Napa's jobless rate keeps outperforming the state by a wide margin.", "body": "4.2% local unemployment against California's 5.1% reflects a metro economy holding up better than most of the state, even as inland counties like Fresno (8.1%) and Bakersfield-Delano (7.9%) show sharp divergence. That gap is a defensible, quotable marker of relative economic health for a county this small and agriculture-dependent."}, {"headline": "Vineyard-sector layoffs look concentrated so far.", "body": "Renteria Vineyard Management's 91-worker WARN notice and Gallo's earlier reductions (St. Helena Ranch Winery closure, Louis M. Martini cuts) total under 200 affected workers against a labor force of 74,300. Consistent with sector-specific consolidation in wine operations."}, {"headline": "Logistics pay surges point to wine-trade distribution strength.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver advertised pay rose significantly to $89,989 (metro) against a national median of $78,872, and Warehouse Manager pay climbed to $94,853. Job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), show this divergence is consistent with continued investment in goods movement tied to the valley's wine and hospitality supply chains, even as some frontline logistics roles like Delivery Driver ($41,600, down significantly) soften."}, {"headline": "Farm employment swings remain the metro's defining seasonal rhythm.", "body": "August's 1,300-job farm employment decline from July, offset by a 600-job nonfarm gain, illustrates how agricultural seasonality continues to drive month-to-month volatility more than any single employer decision. Economists and commerce leaders tracking momentum should expect this pattern to recur through harvest-adjacent months."}], "local_conditions": "Napa MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in October, outperforming California's 5.1% statewide rate and extending a pattern that has placed the county among the state's five lowest-unemployment counties for much of 2026. Agricultural seasonality remains the dominant local force \u2014 farm employment fell 1,300 jobs from July to August even as nonfarm payrolls gained 600 \u2014 while WARN filings from Renteria Vineyard Management (91 workers, effective Oct. 15) and earlier Gallo facility reductions point to structural adjustment concentrated within the wine and vineyard-management sector.", "implications": "Napa's unemployment gap versus the state (4.2% vs. 5.1%) signals a labor market tighter than California's overall, which argues for a constructive read on local business investment even as agriculture-linked layoffs warrant monitoring. Advertised pay for CDL Truck Driver (up significantly to $89,989) and Warehouse Manager (up significantly to $94,853) suggests logistics and distribution activity tied to the wine trade and broader goods movement remains a bright spot even as vineyard-adjacent layoffs draw headlines. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion timing should weigh the county's below-state unemployment rate against the narrower, agriculture-concentrated nature of recent job losses \u2014 current conditions suggest tracking whether WARN activity spreads beyond vineyard management before drawing conclusions about broader local momentum.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether WARN activity beyond Renteria Vineyard Management and Gallo spreads into other wine-sector employers over the next 60 days will determine if this is isolated consolidation or an early signal of broader agricultural-sector contraction."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Healthcare and social assistance remain a named growth sector locally and statewide (California's private education/health services added 8,000 jobs in September); continued advertised-pay strength in Registered Nurse ($130,362) and CNA/Home Health Aide ($57,810) roles would reinforce that this sector is carrying local momentum."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "California's SB 951, requiring WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs starting with EDD's quarterly displacement reports, may surface new detail on whether Napa-area filings carry an automation component \u2014 relevant for government economists assessing structural versus cyclical displacement."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage-vs-inflation divergence (1.5% median earnings growth against 3.5% CPI) has not yet shown clear local confirmation; watch whether Napa's historically stable advertised-pay categories (Retail Sales Associate, Food Service Worker, both flat) begin to show downward pressure as a read on local consumer spending power."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35152.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 44356.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35052.5, "metro_p50": 38401.0, "metro_p75": 40401.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38094.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70295.0, "metro_p50": 89988.8, "metro_p75": 94910.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37373.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39837.5, "metro_p50": 43148.4, "metro_p75": 50367.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72765.0, "metro_p50": 92770.8, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46207.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35724.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 48797.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 57810.0, "metro_p75": 60320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33362.5, "metro_p50": 46592.0, "metro_p75": 55120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63440.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 84207.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104949.75, "metro_p50": 130361.6, "metro_p75": 144164.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 184462.5, "metro_p50": 186900.0, "metro_p75": 186900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 121025.0, "metro_p50": 135283.0, "metro_p75": 138890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61403.0, "metro_p50": 77273.0, "metro_p75": 87791.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77731.0, "metro_p50": 90985.0, "metro_p75": 93926.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72685.0, "metro_p50": 87820.0, "metro_p75": 89700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 70050.0, "metro_p75": 79850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81730.0, "metro_p50": 109470.8, "metro_p75": 129375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 98490.0, "metro_p75": 98491.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 86521.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84847.75, "metro_p50": 101462.8, "metro_p75": 115397.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 83660.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 55037.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 48672.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 52520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51447.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82342.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 106065.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 44876.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 77013.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Napa MSA unemployment rate at 4.2% in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "California statewide unemployment rate at 5.1% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "California WARN Act filings", "source_url": null, "statement": "Renteria Vineyard Management WARN filing for 91 workers"}, {"source_name": "CBS San Francisco", "source_url": null, "statement": "Gallo layoffs of nearly 100 workers across Napa/Sonoma locations"}, {"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fresno and Bakersfield-Delano unemployment rates diverge sharply from coastal counties"}, {"source_name": "California State Legislature", "source_url": null, "statement": "SB 951 requires WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "napa-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "napa-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "napa-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:49.857792+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/napa-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/napa-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}