{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 334, "label": "MT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:34:30.819930+00:00", "headline": "Montana's no-tip-credit law keeps FOH costs structurally elevated.", "headline_summary": "Montana's full $10.85/hour tipped wage and 3.2% statewide unemployment mask a split labor market \u2014 Prairie County at 1.4% unemployment versus Crow Reservation at 10.1% \u2014 leaving operators with uneven options for closing rural staffing gaps.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Montana unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, August 2026"}, {"label": "Reservation-area unemployment", "value": "9.4%\u201310.1%", "context": "Northern Cheyenne, Rocky Boy's, Crow Reservation"}, {"label": "Montana tipped minimum wage", "value": "$10.85/hr", "context": "No tip credit allowed; up from $10.55 in 2025"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 start of 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Montana's wage floor compresses FOH economics unlike most peer states.", "body": "No tip credit means tipped staff earn the full $10.85/hour base, versus $2.13 federally \u2014 a structural cost difference, not a cyclical one. Operators benchmarking against tip-credit-state peers risk underestimating true labor cost as a share of revenue."}, {"headline": "Rural labor supply is binary, not uniformly tight.", "body": "Prairie County's 1.4% unemployment signals extreme scarcity, while reservation-area rates above 9% point to underutilized labor pools nearby. Multi-location operators may find meaningful recruiting upside by expanding radius or transportation support into higher-unemployment reservation communities."}, {"headline": "National turnover cooling may not reach Montana's resort and mountain markets.", "body": "National job openings in food services fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, suggesting easing competition for workers, but Montana's seasonal September pullback was smaller than typical, indicating persistently thin candidate pools in tourism-dependent locations. Retention economics may matter more here than the national stabilization story implies."}, {"headline": "Healthcare's wage pull keeps siphoning hospitality talent.", "body": "Montana's accommodation/food services sector averages $29,881 annually against $108,351 for professional services, a 3.6x spread that widens as healthcare \u2014 the state's largest growth sector \u2014 continues hiring aggressively. Total rewards packages competing purely on hourly rate are unlikely to close this gap."}], "local_conditions": "Montana's nonmetro and rural counties show unemployment as low as 1.4% in Prairie County, but tribal-area labor markets (Northern Cheyenne 9.4%, Rocky Boy's 9.5%, Crow Reservation 10.1%) reveal a fractured rural labor supply that statewide averages obscure. Montana's no-tip-credit minimum wage law, now $10.85/hour with a September 30 CPI-indexed adjustment, continues to push front-of-house base costs well above federal tipped-wage states, compounding seasonal staffing pressure as student workers exit the labor pool.", "implications": "Labor cost as a share of revenue faces structural upward pressure in Montana's full-tip-wage environment, meaning servers and bartenders cost operators roughly 49% more in base pay than in tip-credit states \u2014 a gap that narrows FOH/BOH wage differentials and complicates traditional staffing hierarchies. Tight rural labor supply outside the reservations, combined with food-prep and serving occupations projected to generate the most job openings statewide, suggests turnover remains the dominant cost lever rather than base-wage competition alone. Consider evaluating retention-focused scheduling and cross-training investments ahead of the October CPI wage reset rather than assuming seasonal hiring alone will stabilize headcount.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Montana's CPI-indexed minimum wage adjustment lands annually; watch for the scale of the next increase and whether it outpaces the $0.30 bump seen in January 2026, directly affecting FOH base-wage budgeting for 2027."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Reservation-area unemployment rates above 9% represent an underused labor pool. Track whether any Montana restaurant groups pilot recruiting or transportation partnerships targeting these communities over the next two months."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National restaurant job openings have fallen sharply from 916,000 to 673,000, suggesting reduced hiring competition nationally \u2014 confirm whether Montana's tighter rural labor markets are following this trend or remain an outlier given low statewide unemployment."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Accommodation and food service employment growth has slowed to 1.2% from 2.1% statewide, attributed to workforce shortages rather than demand softness. Sustained deceleration would signal staffing constraints are now capping revenue potential, not just compressing margins."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30866.0, "metro_p50": 38832.0, "metro_p75": 45050.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43663.0, "metro_p50": 53123.6, "metro_p75": 56338.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25461.0, "metro_p50": 32455.4, "metro_p75": 36181.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50074.0, "metro_p50": 62094.0, "metro_p75": 74232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 34312.0, "metro_p75": 37377.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28980.0, "metro_p50": 35159.0, "metro_p75": 41026.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:33.465532+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mt-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mt-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}