{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 334, "label": "MT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:51:58.242804+00:00", "headline": "Montana's nonmetro jobs shrink even as unemployment stays near historic lows.", "headline_summary": "Nonmetro Montana counties lost 1.5% of jobs in 2025 while statewide unemployment held at 3.1%, and labor-force participation slipped to 62.6% from 63.1% a year earlier.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nonmetro job change, 2025", "value": "-1.5%", "context": "Rest-of-state counties outside 4 urban areas"}, {"label": "Montana unemployment rate", "value": "3.1%", "context": "Sept. 2026, vs. 4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "Labor-force participation", "value": "62.6%", "context": "Down from 63.1% a year earlier"}, {"label": "Montana wage growth, 2025", "value": "5.4%", "context": "vs. 3.4% national average, ranked #1 among states"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro job losses coexist with sub-4% unemployment.", "body": "Rest-of-state counties outside Montana's four urban areas lost 1.5% of jobs in 2025 even as the statewide rate fell to 3.1%. That combination is consistent with workers exiting the labor force rather than finding new jobs locally, a distinction that matters more to workforce capacity than the headline rate alone."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and tech carry momentum; manufacturing and tourism cool.", "body": "Healthcare employment grew 5.4% and information/technology jobs grew 28% statewide in 2025, while manufacturing contracted 2.8% and September payroll losses concentrated in accommodation, food service, and finance. Commerce leaders assessing local business climate should weight sector mix over the single aggregate rate."}, {"headline": "Wage leadership hasn't translated into hiring.", "body": "Montana's 5.4% wage growth led all states in 2025, nearly double the 3.4% national figure, yet nonmetro employment contracted over the same period. Pay strength appears to reflect scarcity of specific skills rather than broad-based business expansion."}, {"headline": "Participation decline is the quieter story behind the low jobless rate.", "body": "Labor-force participation slipped to 62.6% in October from 63.1% a year earlier, even as unemployment stayed low. A shrinking labor pool can mask economic softness behind an encouraging headline number, a distinction policy economists will want to track separately from the unemployment rate."}], "local_conditions": "Montana's nonmetro counties recorded a 1.5% job loss in 2025 even as statewide unemployment held at 3.1% in September, a divergence consistent with an economy where available workers are not being matched to open roles rather than one short on labor. Healthcare and information/technology employment grew sharply (5.4% and 28%, respectively) while manufacturing contracted 2.8% and payrolls statewide fell by 1,300 in September concentrated in accommodation, food service, and finance, pointing to a sector-specific cooling rather than a broad downturn.", "implications": "Flat-to-declining nonmetro employment alongside low unemployment suggests local labor availability is tightening even without job growth, a signal relevant to commerce leaders weighing expansion timing and to economic development officials tracking workforce capacity. Wage momentum (Montana's 5.4% growth led the nation in 2025) has not translated into job creation, implying local business confidence \u2014 not labor cost \u2014 is the binding constraint on activity. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders evaluate whether housing costs and labor-force participation declines, rather than wage levels, are the more immediate barrier to attracting workers into the nonmetro labor pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "BLS metro-level employment data for October will not publish until December 2, leaving a reporting gap; watch Montana's November 20 state release for the next confirmed read on nonmetro job counts."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Housing costs continue to erode real purchasing power from Montana's above-average wage gains. Commerce leaders should watch whether consumer spending in nonmetro retail and food service softens further as a result."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "County-level unemployment spread is wide \u2014 Big Horn at 6.2% versus Carter at 1.4% in August \u2014 suggesting uneven conditions beneath the statewide average. Local economic development bodies should track whether this gap narrows or widens heading into winter."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Manufacturing's 2.8% statewide contraction in 2025 follows a pandemic-era snapback; whether this represents a correction or a structural decline will shape investment conversations in nonmetro counties with manufacturing bases."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29062.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27325.0, "metro_p50": 32803.0, "metro_p75": 35786.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34015.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42640.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62473.75, "metro_p50": 82175.0, "metro_p75": 94200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28695.0, "metro_p50": 32977.0, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 51532.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57953.0, "metro_p50": 72472.0, "metro_p75": 79040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32428.0, "metro_p50": 39150.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34359.0, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 42492.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31865.0, "metro_p50": 37034.2, "metro_p75": 37069.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 48100.0, "metro_p75": 54080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31921.75, "metro_p50": 40430.2, "metro_p75": 46008.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70095.75, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86219.75, "metro_p50": 107674.0, "metro_p75": 116774.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120368.5, "metro_p50": 156000.0, "metro_p75": 174194.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99184.0, "metro_p50": 144139.8, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57190.25, "metro_p50": 69220.0, "metro_p75": 77000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72392.0, "metro_p50": 93966.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 81300.0, "metro_p75": 86393.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43368.0, "metro_p50": 57521.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59421.0, "metro_p50": 96405.6, "metro_p75": 108810.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45798.0, "metro_p50": 59032.0, "metro_p75": 63436.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63500.0, "metro_p50": 98000.0, "metro_p75": 120000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52814.75, "metro_p50": 65501.2, "metro_p75": 70938.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82015.0, "metro_p50": 96929.0, "metro_p75": 109654.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 65519.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 113946.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 48880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 50124.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 133216.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 101465.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 93145.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 82644.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64173.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nonmetro Montana counties lost 1.5% of jobs in 2025"}, {"source_name": "Missoula Current / Daily Montanan", "source_url": null, "statement": "Healthcare grew 5.4%, info/tech grew 28%, manufacturing lost 2.8% in 2025"}, {"source_name": "Montana Governor's Office", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana unemployment fell to 3.1% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana wage growth led nation at 5.4% in 2025 vs 3.4% national"}, {"source_name": "USA Facts / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Big Horn County unemployment 6.2%, Carter County 1.4% in August"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Labor-force participation declined to 62.6% from 63.1% year-over-year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "mt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:40.537826+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}