{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mount-vernon-anacortes-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 350, "label": "Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA MSA", "slug": "mount-vernon-anacortes-wa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:31.033933+00:00", "headline": "Skagit unemployment falls as its labor force shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Skagit County's jobless rate dropped to 3.8% in July even as the regional labor force contracted, while manufacturing pay \u2014 12% of county employment \u2014 fell significantly against a backdrop of Washington's 3.1% wage growth trailing 3.5% inflation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Skagit County unemployment rate", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Down from 4.4% in June; vs 4.9% statewide"}, {"label": "Manufacturing share of county jobs", "value": "12%", "context": "vs 7.5% Washington state average"}, {"label": "Washington wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.1% vs 3.5%", "context": "Real wages declining ~0.5% annually statewide"}, {"label": "Projected regional job growth, 2024-2029", "value": "0.81%", "context": "~8,500 jobs across Skagit, Whatcom, San Juan, Island counties"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment masks a shrinking labor force.", "body": "Skagit County's drop to 3.8% unemployment looks favorable on its face, but Whatcom and Skagit counties are simultaneously losing labor force participants. A declining rate driven by workers exiting the labor pool, rather than new hiring, is a weaker signal for economic momentum than the headline suggests."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's outsized local footprint cuts both ways.", "body": "At 12% of county employment versus 7.5% statewide, manufacturing is a defining feature of Skagit's economy, but advertised manufacturing and construction pay are both down significantly this month. A concentrated sector in wage retreat carries more weight here than in more diversified metros."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation gap looks worse locally than nationally in blue-collar trades.", "body": "Electrician and construction laborer advertised pay fell significantly locally even as national figures for the same roles held stable or rose, diverging from Washington's already-weak 3.1% wage growth against 3.5% inflation. That divergence is consistent with softer local demand in trades tied to construction and industrial activity specifically, not just a statewide cooling story."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled technical pay offer a counterweight.", "body": "Registered nurse and HVAC technician advertised pay remain stable-to-up and well above national medians, echoing the national pattern of healthcare and hands-on technical work outperforming white-collar and trades-adjacent sectors. This suggests the local economy's resilience is concentrated in a narrower set of sectors than before, worth tracking for diversification planning."}], "local_conditions": "Skagit County's unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in July, outperforming both Washington's 4.9% state rate and signaling tighter labor conditions even as the county's overall labor force contracts \u2014 a pattern consistent with slower population and workforce growth rather than accelerating business demand. Manufacturing remains the structural backbone of the local economy at 12% of county employment (versus 7.5% statewide), leaving the metro more exposed than most Washington peers to goods-sector wage softness, now visible in declining advertised pay for manufacturing production workers, construction laborers, and electricians.", "implications": "Shrinking labor force participation alongside a falling unemployment rate points to a tightening available labor pool rather than surging demand, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing local expansion versus relocation to faster-growing Puget Sound submarkets. Mount Vernon's prior municipal hiring freeze and the state's broader government payroll contraction suggest public-sector spending will not offset softness in goods-producing trades, reinforcing that any near-term economic lift will need to come from private investment. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Skagit's shrinking labor force reflects out-migration or retirement, since the answer shapes whether local business investment should target automation, recruitment from outside the county, or patience for a cyclical rebound.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Skagit and Whatcom counties' labor force contraction continues through fall will clarify if July's unemployment improvement reflects genuine tightening or population attrition. Government economists should watch the next two Employment Security Department releases for confirmation."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Washington's statewide WARN filings were heaviest in September, including notices from Gilbert Orchards and Sundquist Fruit affecting agricultural and food-processing workers in the broader northwest Washington labor shed. Any filings naming Skagit-based employers in October would mark a meaningful local escalation."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to its lowest annual pace since May 2021 at 3.0%, trailing 3.4% inflation; if that gap persists into Washington's next wage release, local consumer spending capacity \u2014 a core input for retail and hospitality activity in Mount Vernon and Anacortes \u2014 may soften further."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Projected regional job growth of just 0.81% through 2029 implies limited organic expansion; watch for any named-employer investment or relocation announcements in Skagit County as a test of whether this projection undercounts current momentum."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35932.0, "metro_p50": 38750.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34829.0, "metro_p50": 36660.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36693.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59800.0, "metro_p50": 69303.0, "metro_p75": 74448.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34547.25, "metro_p50": 40777.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 77232.0, "metro_p75": 86320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38676.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42380.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37944.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 47500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32697.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 53664.0, "metro_p75": 53716.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 50960.0, "metro_p75": 54080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109200.0, "metro_p50": 109200.0, "metro_p75": 109200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96468.0, "metro_p50": 113708.4, "metro_p75": 121992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 125000.0, "metro_p50": 165593.6, "metro_p75": 183300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 117500.0, "metro_p50": 148461.0, "metro_p75": 152835.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64709.0, "metro_p50": 74526.0, "metro_p75": 82150.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81813.0, "metro_p50": 101200.0, "metro_p75": 107252.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66787.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47000.0, "metro_p50": 84000.0, "metro_p75": 84000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79388.5, "metro_p50": 100489.0, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40000.0, "metro_p50": 46612.0, "metro_p75": 61890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65279.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 122704.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84257.0, "metro_p50": 102200.0, "metro_p75": 112400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 66259.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 71090.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40456.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 42587.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 52520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 58906.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 93880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 65637.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 38303.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 77232.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mount-vernon-anacortes-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mount-vernon-anacortes-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "mount-vernon-anacortes-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:29.317931+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mount-vernon-anacortes-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mount-vernon-anacortes-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}