{"schema_version": 1, "id": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 325, "label": "Monroe, MI MSA", "slug": "monroe-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:53:30.982251+00:00", "headline": "Monroe's jobless rate falls as its payrolls shrink.", "headline_summary": "Monroe County unemployment dropped to 4.3% in September \u2014 the sharpest year-over-year improvement in Michigan \u2014 even as metro payroll employment fell 3.4% in July, a gap that points to labor-force exit as the likelier driver, apart from renewed hiring demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Monroe unemployment rate", "value": "4.3%", "context": "Sept. 2026, down 0.7 pts from August"}, {"label": "Monroe payroll employment change", "value": "-3.4%", "context": "July 2026, steepest among MI metros"}, {"label": "Michigan labor force decline", "value": "-158,000", "context": "Year-over-year, statewide"}, {"label": "Manufacturing share of Monroe employment", "value": "49.7%", "context": "High location quotient vs. state/national avg"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Monroe's falling jobless rate may mask a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "September's 4.3% rate improved sharply from August, but statewide labor force participation dropped to 58.5% and Michigan's labor force fell 158,000 over the year. A declining unemployment rate driven by fewer job-seekers reads differently for regional growth projections than one driven by job creation."}, {"headline": "Payroll contraction and improving unemployment are telling different stories.", "body": "Monroe MSA payroll employment fell 3.4% in July, the steepest decline among surveyed Michigan metros, even as the unemployment rate improved year-over-year. Economic development leaders tracking business investment momentum should treat these as two separate signals, not a single consistent trend."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing concentration remains Monroe's defining structural feature.", "body": "Manufacturing accounts for 49.7% of metro employment, well above typical regional benchmarks, while Michigan's 10-year outlook projects manufacturing will shed more jobs than any other sector statewide. Monroe's economic trajectory is unusually tied to a single sector's national and statewide fortunes."}, {"headline": "Skilled-trades pay gains stand apart from a flat broader wage picture.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly to a $80,080 metro median and manufacturing production worker pay rose moderately to $39,520, both outpacing many white-collar local roles that held flat. Wage momentum appears concentrated in production and trades work, with limited spread across the local economy."}], "local_conditions": "Monroe County's unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in September, down 0.7 percentage points from August and the largest year-over-year improvement among Michigan's 18 metro regions, even as payroll employment contracted 3.4% in July amid a manufacturing-concentrated economy where 49.7% of jobs sit in industrial sub-sectors. Statewide labor force contraction \u2014 Michigan shed 158,000 workers from its labor force over the past year \u2014 appears to be compressing Monroe's unemployment figures alongside actual job growth, a distinction that matters for reading the headline number correctly.", "implications": "Falling unemployment paired with shrinking payrolls signals a labor market where fewer residents are actively seeking work; this may or may not reflect new output or hiring volume, a distinction that matters for anyone using the jobless rate as a proxy for business conditions. Advertised pay for manufacturing production roles (up, moderate, to $39,520 metro median) and electricians (up significantly, to $80,080) suggests selective wage pressure in skilled-trades and production segments even as broader payroll counts soften. Commerce and economic development leaders evaluating expansion or investment announcements should weigh payroll and labor-force trends alongside the unemployment rate, since the latter alone may overstate labor market strength this month.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "October metro-level unemployment and payroll figures from BLS and Michigan DTMB are due in the coming weeks; watch whether July's payroll contraction persists or reverses, which will clarify whether September's unemployment improvement reflects real growth or continued labor-force exit."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Michigan's statewide labor force participation decline (58.5%, down with a median regional drop of 6.8% year-over-year) has not yet shown a clear local reversal signal. Continued erosion would constrain the available workforce for any Monroe-area capital investment or expansion announcement regardless of unemployment headlines."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan's 10-year state outlook projects manufacturing as the sector most likely to shed jobs statewide, a structural risk given Monroe's 49.7% manufacturing concentration. Local economic development planning may benefit from tracking diversification efforts against this projection."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National manufacturing employment grew roughly 9,000 jobs in September and is up 72,000 since December 2025, a modest national tailwind that has not yet clearly shown up in Monroe's payroll counts. Divergence between national manufacturing momentum and local payroll contraction is worth monitoring for signs of a local lag or a local-specific headwind."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22833.0, "metro_p50": 25695.8, "metro_p75": 28600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25106.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 30798.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32076.75, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40281.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58289.0, "metro_p50": 82000.0, "metro_p75": 93107.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31045.0, "metro_p50": 32837.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69023.0, "metro_p50": 80080.0, "metro_p75": 87360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35245.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28565.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33093.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32999.0, "metro_p50": 40025.0, "metro_p75": 40841.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 40043.4, "metro_p75": 41620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66560.0, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 66560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86719.0, "metro_p50": 94835.0, "metro_p75": 104806.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 125573.0, "metro_p50": 166020.0, "metro_p75": 173806.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136328.0, "metro_p75": 154349.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59696.0, "metro_p50": 64634.2, "metro_p75": 73266.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75661.75, "metro_p50": 85216.8, "metro_p75": 114327.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52696.0, "metro_p50": 55886.0, "metro_p75": 61761.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 58020.0, "metro_p75": 69000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 75349.0, "metro_p75": 92183.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38836.0, "metro_p50": 50186.6, "metro_p75": 56658.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42640.0, "metro_p50": 65998.2, "metro_p75": 77780.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 92496.0, "metro_p75": 105164.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34319.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 38937.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 160627.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45084.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 51485.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61773.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62294.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data and Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Monroe County unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Labor Market Review", "source_url": null, "statement": "Monroe MSA payroll employment fell 3.4% in July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Labor Market Review", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing comprises 49.7% of Monroe MSA employment"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data and Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan's labor force declined 158,000 over the past year"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing added ~9,000 jobs nationally in September, up 72,000 since Dec. 2025"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan's 10-year outlook projects manufacturing to shed the most jobs statewide"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:27.123941+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}