{"schema_version": 1, "id": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 325, "label": "Monroe, MI MSA", "slug": "monroe-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:12.001258+00:00", "headline": "Monroe's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Monroe's unemployment rate improved 0.8 points to 5.0% even as its labor force contracted 7.7% to 71,600 \u2014 the steepest workforce decline of any Michigan metro, against a backdrop of a 3.4% July payroll drop.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Monroe labor force, YoY change", "value": "-7.7%", "context": "Fell from 77,600 to 71,600; steepest decline statewide"}, {"label": "Monroe unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Improved 0.8 pts YoY, but above MI (5.0%) and US (4.1%)"}, {"label": "Monroe nonfarm payrolls, monthly change", "value": "-3.4%", "context": "Sharpest metro-level drop in Michigan, July 2026"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "3.0% wages vs 3.4% CPI", "context": "First real-wage erosion in two years"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A falling jobless rate is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Monroe's unemployment rate improved 0.8 points year-over-year, but the labor force itself contracted 7.7% to 71,600 \u2014 the largest such drop among Michigan metros. That combination points to residents exiting the labor market rather than a tightening, healthier local economy."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness is the metro's clearest structural signal.", "body": "July payrolls fell 3.4%, the steepest metro-level decline statewide, in a sector that represents nearly 20% of Monroe's private employment. Statewide, cyclical industries including manufacturing are projected to shed over 16,000 jobs in 2026, suggesting Monroe's exposure is a regional symptom, not an isolated event."}, {"headline": "Advertised pay diverges sharply by occupation, not by headline average.", "body": "Electrician and manufacturing production-worker pay rose locally even as construction labor and accountant pay fell significantly, indicating a bifurcated local wage picture rather than uniform softening. Commerce leaders citing 'local wage growth' should specify which occupational segment they mean."}, {"headline": "Monroe's labor contraction outpaces the state's own participation slide.", "body": "Michigan's statewide labor force fell 0.5% in August while the nation's rose 0.4%, but Monroe's year-over-year contraction of 7.7% dwarfs that state-level softness. That gap suggests county-specific dynamics \u2014 demographic, commuting, or local-industry-driven \u2014 beyond the general Michigan participation story."}], "local_conditions": "Monroe's civilian labor force contracted 7.7% year-over-year through August, the steepest labor-force decline of any Michigan metro, even as the unemployment rate improved 0.8 points on an over-the-year basis to 5.0%. Nonfarm payrolls fell 3.4% in July \u2014 the sharpest metro-level drop in the state \u2014 concentrated in a manufacturing sector that still accounts for roughly one in five private jobs locally, consistent with statewide manufacturing softness tied to cyclical demand and trade-policy uncertainty.", "implications": "Headline unemployment improvement in Monroe is arithmetic rather than organic \u2014 fewer residents are counted as job-seekers, not more are finding work, which complicates any narrative of a strengthening local economy for site-selection or investment decisions. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion should weigh the shrinking labor force against manufacturing payroll losses, since a smaller available workforce can offset the appeal of a lower jobless rate. Consider reviewing labor-force participation alongside unemployment data before characterizing the metro's trajectory in public-facing materials or investment pitches.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Monroe's next labor-force estimate stabilizes or continues contracting; a second consecutive sharp decline would suggest a structural population or participation shift rather than a one-month anomaly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing payroll losses locally mirror a statewide pattern tied in part to tariff-exposed supply chains; any additional WARN filings from Monroe-area manufacturers over the next two months would confirm whether the July payroll drop is accelerating."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan's minimum wage rises to $15.00 on January 1, 2027; expect advertised pay in lower-wage Monroe occupations (retail, food service) to begin adjusting upward in postings well ahead of that date."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation \u2014 the first real-wage erosion in two years. Whether Monroe's advertised pay for middle-wage roles follows that national softening will signal whether local purchasing power is under similar strain."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22833.0, "metro_p50": 26107.6, "metro_p75": 28600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28999.0, "metro_p75": 30383.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31531.0, "metro_p50": 36518.0, "metro_p75": 39199.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57862.0, "metro_p50": 83408.0, "metro_p75": 94735.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30868.5, "metro_p50": 32244.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69022.0, "metro_p50": 79770.0, "metro_p75": 87360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 37883.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33092.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32908.0, "metro_p50": 39714.0, "metro_p75": 40841.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35367.5, "metro_p50": 39883.4, "metro_p75": 41620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66560.0, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 66560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87635.0, "metro_p50": 95174.0, "metro_p75": 105406.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 125573.0, "metro_p50": 166020.0, "metro_p75": 173806.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 139608.0, "metro_p75": 157543.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58530.5, "metro_p50": 63839.8, "metro_p75": 65726.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76170.0, "metro_p50": 83659.6, "metro_p75": 114121.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52696.0, "metro_p50": 55886.0, "metro_p75": 56696.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 58389.0, "metro_p75": 69093.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61250.0, "metro_p50": 81693.0, "metro_p75": 90662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38722.0, "metro_p50": 50166.0, "metro_p75": 54537.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42640.0, "metro_p50": 60486.2, "metro_p75": 70790.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48388.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 80378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85875.0, "metro_p50": 85971.0, "metro_p75": 85971.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 67000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34467.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 38830.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 160423.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45084.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 50654.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64140.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65582.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:22.413430+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/monroe-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}