{"schema_version": 1, "id": "modesto-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 307, "label": "Modesto, CA MSA", "slug": "modesto-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:02.956471+00:00", "headline": "Modesto's jobless rate gap to the nation persists despite slow improvement.", "headline_summary": "Stanislaus County unemployment held at 6.6% in October versus 4.1% nationally and 5.1% statewide, even as skilled-trade pay for roles like Warehouse Manager ($94,853) and Operations Manager ($109,471) continued climbing.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Modesto MSA unemployment rate", "value": "6.6%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 5.1% California"}, {"label": "Year-ago Modesto unemployment", "value": "7.1%", "context": "October 2025 estimate, gradual improvement"}, {"label": "Modesto labor force", "value": "255,300", "context": "238,400 employed, October 2026"}, {"label": "National job ad growth, year-over-year", "value": "+2.8%", "context": "Indeed JPI, up from -8.1% a year ago"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Modesto's jobless rate gap versus the nation continues to widen.", "body": "At 6.6%, the metro's unemployment rate sits roughly 2.5 points above the national 4.1% and 1.5 points above California's 5.1%, reflecting a persistent structural gap. Economists and commerce leaders should treat this as a durable regional characteristic shaping labor availability, likely to persist beyond the near term."}, {"headline": "Skilled-trade and operations pay is rising even as the broader market cools.", "body": "Electrician ($80,388), Operations Manager ($109,471, up moderate), and Warehouse Manager ($94,853, up significant) advertised pay all outpace national medians and show upward movement locally, suggesting selective tightness in logistics and skilled-trade segments. Consistent with statewide construction-labor tightness noted this month, this points to uneven demand beneath a soft headline unemployment number."}, {"headline": "Healthcare capital investment is a bright spot against a mixed local backdrop.", "body": "Sutter Health's $380 million cancer center groundbreaking signals multi-year capital commitment to the metro's healthcare infrastructure, aligning with statewide and national data showing healthcare as the most resilient hiring sector. For commerce leaders, this is a concrete, named-employer signal of confidence in the local economy worth watching for downstream construction and service-sector spillover."}, {"headline": "Wage softening in consumer-facing roles may reflect local demand caution.", "body": "Customer Service Representative (down moderate), Marketing Specialist (down significant), and Delivery Driver (down significant) advertised pay all declined locally even as national medians held stable or rose, a divergence worth tracking as a read on local consumer and small-business spending confidence."}], "local_conditions": "Stanislaus County's unemployment rate held at 6.6% in October, continuing a gradual improvement from 7.0% in August and a year-ago reading near 7.1%, even as Modesto remains among the highest-unemployment metros of its size nationally. Structural factors \u2014 a labor force still concentrated in agriculture and seasonal trade/transportation work, alongside the $380 million Sutter Health cancer center project signaling continued healthcare-sector capital investment \u2014 appear to be anchoring the metro's slow, uneven recovery.", "implications": "Modesto's unemployment rate sitting more than two points above the national 4.1% and 1.5 points above California's 5.1% suggests the local labor pool carries more slack than state or national trends imply, a relevant data point for government economists tracking regional divergence and for commerce leaders weighing whether to expand locally. Healthcare capital investment (the Sutter Health project) and relatively resilient advertised pay in skilled trades (Electrician, Operations Manager, Warehouse Manager all showing upward movement) point to pockets of local economic strength amid a broader soft patch. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should consider that higher-than-average slack may support easier project staffing even as it signals underlying demand softness worth monitoring.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Modesto's unemployment rate continues its gradual decline toward the 6% range or stalls, given the metro remains among the highest-unemployment large metros nationally despite months of incremental improvement."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Downward advertised-pay movement in Delivery Driver, HVAC Technician, and Financial Analyst roles locally, against stable-to-rising national figures for the same roles, may signal softer local demand in logistics and professional services worth tracking into year-end."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Progress on the Sutter Health cancer center and any additional named-employer capital announcements, which would offer the clearest signal of whether healthcare-sector investment is accelerating or holding steady in the metro."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "California's SB 951 WARN disclosure requirement for AI-driven layoffs and the state's $4 million Employment Training Panel funding round may surface Stanislaus County-specific displacement or training data in coming EDD quarterly reports."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 38968.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33162.0, "metro_p50": 36816.0, "metro_p75": 38771.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37718.75, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60251.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 89428.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35400.0, "metro_p50": 37512.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40395.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64311.0, "metro_p50": 80388.0, "metro_p75": 87885.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41359.75, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38060.0, "metro_p50": 43688.2, "metro_p75": 47500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35152.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 47441.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39803.5, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 47718.2, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 69888.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109200.0, "metro_p50": 131528.8, "metro_p75": 144740.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 147681.0, "metro_p50": 183494.4, "metro_p75": 203658.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 129281.0, "metro_p50": 158092.8, "metro_p75": 164510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63124.5, "metro_p50": 72856.0, "metro_p75": 81371.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69680.0, "metro_p50": 86464.0, "metro_p75": 97562.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55656.25, "metro_p50": 64490.0, "metro_p75": 64592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81730.0, "metro_p50": 109470.8, "metro_p75": 129375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45169.5, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 75189.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56988.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 88196.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91891.5, "metro_p50": 110000.0, "metro_p75": 115727.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 66500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 88400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40998.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60489.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 71954.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 59000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 70387.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 83100.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39015.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72187.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Modesto MSA unemployment rate at 6.6% in October 2026, labor force 255,300"}, {"source_name": "Fox40 News", "source_url": null, "statement": "Sutter Health groundbreaking on $380M cancer center in Modesto"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "California EDD", "source_url": null, "statement": "California unemployment rate held at 5.1% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Indeed Hiring Lab", "source_url": null, "statement": "Indeed Job Postings Index up 2.8% year-over-year in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Modesto among highest-unemployment metros of its size nationally"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "modesto-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "modesto-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "modesto-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:22.715317+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/modesto-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/modesto-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}