{"schema_version": 1, "id": "modesto-ca-msa/information-technology/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 307, "label": "Modesto, CA MSA", "slug": "modesto-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "information_technology", "slug": "information-technology", "label": "Information Technology"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T03:23:59.689364+00:00", "headline": "Modesto software engineer pay outpaces the nation despite local slack.", "headline_summary": "Metro Software Engineer pay hit $183,494 against a national median of $154,403, even as Stanislaus County unemployment held near 6.6% \u2014 nearly 2.5 points above the state rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "6.6%", "context": "vs 5.1% statewide, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Software Engineer advertised pay", "value": "$183,494", "context": "vs $154,403 national median"}, {"label": "Cybersecurity Analyst pay trend", "value": "Down, moderate", "context": "vs rising 4.7% nationally for IT systems roles"}, {"label": "CA tech WARN job cuts (2026 YTD)", "value": "16,000+", "context": "Through first seven months of 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Software Engineer pay outpaces national median by 19%.", "body": "Metro median advertised pay of $183,494 against a national figure of $154,403 signals significant local demand pressure despite a regional unemployment rate nearly 2.5 points above the state average. This gap likely reflects intense competition for a small qualified pool, a dynamic worth distinguishing before setting pay ranges."}, {"headline": "Cybersecurity Analyst pay is softening against a hardening national trend.", "body": "Metro median pay fell to $96,170 even as the national figure rose to $107,327, a divergence that runs counter to the broader IT systems wage gains of 4.7% reported statewide. Local employers may be able to source security talent at a discount currently, though this could reverse quickly given statewide WARN-driven displacement of 16,000+ tech workers creating competing regional demand."}, {"headline": "Systems Administrator demand is strengthening locally and nationally together.", "body": "Metro median pay of $107,500 now exceeds the national median of $102,503, with both trending upward at a moderate pace. Convergence across geographies on this role suggests infrastructure operations talent is tightening broadly, a signal worth weighing against any plan to centralize ops functions in lower-cost metros."}, {"headline": "Elevated local joblessness has not softened IT-specific pay.", "body": "Overall metro unemployment near 6.6% has not translated into discounted advertised pay across IT roles, with four of seven tracked roles showing stable or upward local trends. Structural unemployment in Stanislaus County appears concentrated outside the specialized IT workforce, meaning broad economic slack offers little leverage in technical compensation negotiations."}], "local_conditions": "Stanislaus County's unemployment rate held near 6.6% in October, still the third-highest among metros with labor forces over 250,000 nationally as of the most recent comparative data, even as the broader labor force grew to 255,300 with 238,400 employed. Local hiring capacity remains constrained by the region's agriculture-dependent seasonal cycle and a Computer Systems Design sector that contracted 4.7% year-over-year statewide, limiting the pool of specialized IT employers competing for talent in the Central Valley.", "implications": "Modesto's persistent unemployment gap against state and national averages coexists with Software Engineer pay climbing to a metro median of $183,494 \u2014 well above the $154,403 national figure \u2014 suggesting a thin, specialized talent pool commands a premium even in a metro with elevated overall joblessness. That divergence complicates headcount planning: infrastructure and support roles may be sourced locally at a discount, but engineering and architecture talent requires competing against Bay Area and Sacramento compensation gravity despite the 35-40% cost gap between Sacramento and San Francisco rates. Consider evaluating which roles can shift to a hybrid or distributed sourcing model to capture Central Valley cost advantages on infrastructure and support while reserving premium local compensation for scarce engineering talent.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether California's 16,000+ technology WARN-related job cuts through July push displaced Bay Area and Sacramento IT talent toward Central Valley remote or hybrid roles over the next 60 days. An inflow could ease Software Engineer and Cybersecurity Analyst sourcing pressure in Modesto."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "California's computer professional exemption salary threshold rose to $122,573.13 effective January, a level several Modesto-metro IT roles \u2014 including Cybersecurity Analyst and Data Scientist \u2014 sit below on current advertised medians. Reassess which positions require reclassification or pay adjustment to preserve exemption status."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide information-sector hiring rates fell to 1.6% of employment by August, reinforcing a national pattern favoring internal mobility over external recruitment. Track whether Modesto-area employers mirror this by slowing external IT postings in favor of internal transfers and upskilling."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Sutter Health's $380M cancer center project continues moving through 2026, a healthcare capital investment that typically generates adjacent IT infrastructure, networking and support hiring. Monitor vendor and contractor postings tied to the project as an early signal of localized IT demand growth."}], "roles": [{"role": "Data Scientist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113110.0, "metro_p50": 113151.0, "metro_p75": 183443.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 145881.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Systems Administrator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98750.0, "metro_p50": 107500.0, "metro_p75": 115000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102503.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Network Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92379.0, "metro_p50": 107272.0, "metro_p75": 133022.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 115757.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 147681.0, "metro_p50": 183494.4, "metro_p75": 203658.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Help Desk/IT Support Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46035.0, "metro_p50": 53682.2, "metro_p75": 62700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 53129.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Cybersecurity Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86209.0, "metro_p50": 96170.0, "metro_p75": 103477.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 107327.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "IT Project Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 92697.0, "metro_p50": 123555.0, "metro_p75": 135000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 118149.8, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Modesto MSA unemployment rate and labor force figures for October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Modesto ranked 3rd highest unemployment among large metros"}, {"source_name": "California EDD / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Computer Systems Design employment declined 4.7% year-over-year in California"}, {"source_name": "California Department of Industrial Relations", "source_url": null, "statement": "California computer professional exemption threshold rose to $122,573.13"}, {"source_name": "California WARN Act Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "California tech sector WARN notices exceeded 16,000 job cuts"}, {"source_name": "Fox40 News", "source_url": null, "statement": "Sutter Health broke ground on $380M cancer center in Modesto"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "modesto-ca-msa/information-technology/2026-10.html", "pdf": "modesto-ca-msa/information-technology/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:21.967544+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/modesto-ca-msa/information-technology/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/modesto-ca-msa/information-technology/2026-10.pdf"}