{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mobile-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 335, "label": "Mobile, AL MSA", "slug": "mobile-al-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:17.676106+00:00", "headline": "Mobile's jobless rate climbs while Alabama's holds steady.", "headline_summary": "Mobile MSA unemployment rose to 4.4% in August, a full point above last year and a point above Alabama's 3.4% statewide rate, even as a $1.2 billion ArcelorMittal investment signals longer-term industrial confidence.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Mobile MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "Up from 3.8% a year ago (Aug. 2025)"}, {"label": "Alabama unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Unchanged since July 2026, below Mobile's 4.4%"}, {"label": "Mobile County avg. weekly wage growth", "value": "3.7%", "context": "Q1 2026, above 3.6% national wage growth rate"}, {"label": "ArcelorMittal Mobile County investment", "value": "$1.2B", "context": "200+ jobs, specialty EV-motor steel facility"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Mobile's jobless rate is rising while Alabama's holds flat.", "body": "Metro unemployment reached 4.4% in August, up a full point year-over-year, even as the statewide rate sat at 3.4% \u2014 a gap that suggests Mobile-specific conditions, not a broader Alabama slowdown, are driving the divergence."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing wages are falling even as construction and skilled trades climb.", "body": "Metro manufacturing production pay dropped significantly year-over-year while electrician and HVAC technician pay rose sharply, consistent with a local economy where trade-skill demand tied to industrial buildout is outpacing demand for production-line labor."}, {"headline": "ArcelorMittal's $1.2 billion bet signals confidence that current data doesn't yet show.", "body": "A commitment of this scale for an EV-motor steel facility implies multi-year employer confidence in the Mobile corridor that current softness in local manufacturing pay and participation has not caught up to \u2014 a gap worth tracking as construction phases complete."}, {"headline": "White-collar pay softness mirrors a national pattern, not a local anomaly.", "body": "Software engineer and operations manager advertised pay fell sharply in Mobile, echoing the national split where white-collar and administrative roles are cooling while hands-on trades and health care hold firmer \u2014 a signal this is sector-wide, not metro-specific weakness."}], "local_conditions": "Mobile MSA unemployment climbed to 4.4% in August 2026 from 3.8% a year earlier, moving against the grain of Alabama's steady 3.4% statewide rate and signaling metro-specific softening even as the state holds firmer ground. Capital-intensive manufacturing investment, highlighted by ArcelorMittal's $1.2 billion specialty steel facility for EV motors, continues to anchor long-term momentum even as near-term advertised pay in manufacturing production roles and software engineering has pulled back sharply.", "implications": "Divergence between a rising metro unemployment rate and continued large-scale industrial investment suggests Mobile's labor market is absorbing a transition \u2014 softer near-term conditions in legacy manufacturing and office-based roles alongside a longer runway of capital commitments that will eventually require a larger local workforce. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion timing should weigh current softness (useful for near-term facility staffing costs) against medium-term tightening likely as ArcelorMittal and similar projects ramp toward full operation. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether the metro's unemployment uptick reflects temporary sector realignment or a more durable slowdown before committing to major local investment timing decisions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Mobile's unemployment rate stabilizes or continues diverging from the state average once October BLS metro data publishes October 28 \u2014 a second consecutive rise would suggest a more durable local slowdown rather than a one-month anomaly."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "ArcelorMittal's facility timeline and any additional supplier or logistics announcements tied to it are the clearest leading indicator of whether Mobile's industrial investment pipeline will translate into measurable payroll growth over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings remain concentrated in manufacturing and logistics; any filing naming a Mobile-area employer would be the first concrete sign that national layoff trends (Amazon, Tyson, and others cited nationally) are reaching the metro directly."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slipped below inflation for the first time in two years; watch whether Mobile's Q2 2026 average weekly wage data (due later this fall) shows a similar real-wage erosion, which would pressure local consumer spending capacity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22808.0, "metro_p50": 27074.0, "metro_p75": 30427.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22539.0, "metro_p50": 25798.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29157.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35686.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51581.0, "metro_p50": 74880.0, "metro_p75": 81781.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29645.5, "metro_p50": 33944.0, "metro_p75": 37807.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27376.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56907.0, "metro_p50": 68974.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29026.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37615.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30252.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24532.0, "metro_p50": 26179.0, "metro_p75": 26968.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28614.0, "metro_p50": 32283.0, "metro_p75": 34256.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28848.0, "metro_p50": 37088.8, "metro_p75": 43576.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54021.5, "metro_p50": 65409.6, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71516.25, "metro_p50": 80227.0, "metro_p75": 86739.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78612.0, "metro_p50": 96646.0, "metro_p75": 111893.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84108.0, "metro_p50": 105527.8, "metro_p75": 113074.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52307.0, "metro_p50": 58346.0, "metro_p75": 64625.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62634.25, "metro_p50": 73110.0, "metro_p75": 78131.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50602.0, "metro_p50": 67358.0, "metro_p75": 74332.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40813.0, "metro_p50": 50529.6, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 71778.6, "metro_p75": 78593.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24845.0, "metro_p50": 48979.8, "metro_p75": 60869.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59538.0, "metro_p50": 90226.6, "metro_p75": 111615.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49567.75, "metro_p50": 58928.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67138.0, "metro_p50": 76243.4, "metro_p75": 85340.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 70240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 77150.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34946.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60392.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59541.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49836.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 64547.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67738.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65353.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mobile-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mobile-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "mobile-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:17.008365+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mobile-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mobile-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}