{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mo-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 311, "label": "MO NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "mo-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:41.280493+00:00", "headline": "Missouri unemployment hits 25-year low as job postings shrink.", "headline_summary": "Missouri's unemployment rate fell to 3.2% in September\u2014the lowest since January 2000\u2014even as statewide job postings dropped 11.7% year-over-year, a sign the state's nonmetro labor markets are tight on supply rather than booming on demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Missouri unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "Lowest since Jan. 2000; vs. 4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "Missouri job postings, YoY", "value": "-11.7%", "context": "70,510 (Jul '26) vs. 79,830 (Jul '25)"}, {"label": "Missouri nonfarm payroll growth", "value": "+3,300 jobs", "context": "September 2026, plus upward August revision"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4% CPI", "context": "Weakest wage reading since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment at a 25-year low masks a hiring slowdown.", "body": "Missouri's 3.2% rate is the lowest since January 2000, yet statewide job postings dropped 11.7% year-over-year. For nonmetro commerce leaders, this points to a labor market constrained by worker scarcity rather than one signaling robust new economic activity."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades are pulling away from general labor in local pay.", "body": "Electrician pay (up significantly) and HVAC technician pay (up moderately) are rising locally while construction laborer and CDL driver pay are both down moderately. That split suggests investment and project activity concentrated in specialized trades even as general labor demand softens."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has local purchasing-power implications.", "body": "National wage growth of 3.0% now trails 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage reading since May 2021. If nonmetro Missouri wages track this national pattern, local consumer spending momentum\u2014a key input for retail and services activity\u2014may soften even as the labor market stays tight."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability remains a relative bright spot, nationally this is not guaranteed.", "body": "National government payrolls shed 17,000 jobs in September, extending a 216,000 decline over the past year, even as Missouri's own employment gains were led by private-sector manufacturing and services. Nonmetro public-sector leaders should treat state-level payroll stability as distinct from\u2014and currently outperforming\u2014the national public-sector trend."}], "local_conditions": "Missouri's statewide unemployment rate fell to 3.2% in September\u2014its lowest since January 2000\u2014while nonfarm payrolls grew 3,300, concentrated in durable goods manufacturing, construction, transportation/warehousing, and accommodation/food services, sectors that typically have strong representation in the state's nonmetropolitan regions. Job postings in Missouri fell 11.7% year-over-year even as unemployment tightened further, a divergence consistent with employers filling fewer net-new positions while still competing hard for scarce workers in trucking, construction, and skilled trades across North, Southeast, and Southwest Missouri labor markets.", "implications": "Falling postings alongside record-low unemployment is less a sign of economic weakness than of a labor market with little slack left to draw on\u2014nonmetro Missouri commerce leaders should read this as a capacity constraint on local business expansion, not a demand problem. Advertised pay softness in CDL driver, construction laborer, and delivery roles locally (all down, moderate) alongside strength in electrician and HVAC pay (up, moderate-to-significant) suggests skilled trades are pulling away from general labor and logistics roles in the local wage structure. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce planning bodies should evaluate whether regional training pipelines are tracking this skilled-trades divergence, rather than treating the broader labor market as uniformly tight.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS state and regional employment data for September 2026, including nonmetropolitan detail, is scheduled for release October 20. This will be the first confirmation of whether the record-low statewide unemployment rate extended into nonmetro North, Southeast, and Southwest Missouri labor markets specifically."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Heavy truck driver postings rose 104% year-over-year statewide even as overall postings fell, while retail postings dropped 39%. Watch whether this divergence persists locally, as it would signal continued freight and logistics demand even amid broader hiring caution."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN Act filings remain below 2025 levels through September, and no WARN notices have been identified in Missouri nonmetro coverage this month. Continued absence of layoff activity would reinforce the state's low-unemployment, low-churn labor market narrative."}, {"category": "Policy context, non-partisan", "body": "Missouri's natural population growth has turned negative, with roughly 60% of recent population gains attributed to international migration. Immigration policy changes at the federal level carry direct labor-supply implications for construction, agriculture, and service sectors in rural and nonmetro Missouri, independent of any position on the policy itself."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24912.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32449.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26034.0, "metro_p50": 28733.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36415.8, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60110.0, "metro_p50": 76052.0, "metro_p75": 85915.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27739.0, "metro_p50": 31312.0, "metro_p75": 33781.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30680.75, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57405.0, "metro_p50": 69680.0, "metro_p75": 71595.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31574.75, "metro_p50": 36118.0, "metro_p75": 38854.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32041.0, "metro_p50": 37090.0, "metro_p75": 38615.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28376.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38253.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30354.0, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 63185.0, "metro_p75": 72889.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81580.5, "metro_p50": 96400.0, "metro_p75": 107757.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107885.75, "metro_p50": 142219.0, "metro_p75": 159466.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92302.0, "metro_p50": 121758.8, "metro_p75": 143589.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53544.0, "metro_p50": 60038.6, "metro_p75": 65906.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68984.75, "metro_p50": 92066.0, "metro_p75": 102992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49941.75, "metro_p50": 60280.0, "metro_p75": 70185.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 62207.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66901.25, "metro_p50": 72348.0, "metro_p75": 84395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31850.0, "metro_p50": 49086.0, "metro_p75": 54169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 87532.8, "metro_p75": 109971.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 87991.2, "metro_p75": 103119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78227.75, "metro_p50": 95609.0, "metro_p75": 104367.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58448.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 86162.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37868.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 128343.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 77903.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57087.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63688.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mo-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mo-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "mo-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:15.156233+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mo-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mo-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}